You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Sunday was 76% following last week's final weekly average of exactly 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
The (4) and (5) UK graded races were as close to useless as you can get, Sunday. There were only two and though one was successful it was in a race that had half the field as non runners - leaving only the (4) and (5) graded horses in it. So it was and unloseable, blind-monkey-chosen win for the dutches. Worst performance ever by a Roman league....
On Monday, Perfect Friend seems to have been found a choice opportunity in Leicester's 5-00. Currently in top form, she heralded another win when outpaced close home last time at Chepstow with the others well beaten off. That race was over a stiff 6f but she much prefers an easy 7f, which the Leicester course provides. I consider the biggest danger to be Alexander Loyalty who has found trouble in running the last twice she has run. Both times she has looked for all the world as though she needed a longer trip. Today's 7f should be ideal and I expect her to follow Perfect Friend home.
The eyes are drawn to Follow the Flag in Thirsk's 6-40 but the glaring lack of a confirmed front runner puts a horse he beat last time firmly in the frame. Champain Sands is not a horse to put your mortgage on since he is a rare winner (he hasn't won since August 2007 over this course and distance). But his ageing legs should be able to keep closer tabs on the leaders, tomorrow evening, making his customary late (usually too late) surge a very dangerous weapon. Monday may just be the day to catch him and I shall be having a small wager on him just in case.
Sunday, 31 May 2009
Sunday, Lousy Sunday
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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Saturday was 67% following Friday's 69%, Thursday's 75%, Wednesday's 71%, Tuesday's 71%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an final weekly average of exactly 72%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
The seven (4) and (5) UK graded races performed averagely on Saturday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, and one was won by the clear 2nd top rated. The other three races were unsuccessful.
I have to say the services were pummeled on Saturday night, especially at Newbury - though the top three of the speed ratings produced Sumani which won at 20/1 to follow the end of the afternoon winner Hits Only Vic which won at 28/1. So there were positives to be taken from the day - despite Newbury...
High Standing moved himself to the top of the Wokingham betting with another impressive display. All he wants now is good or better ground and a suitable draw to ensure he goes there with a favourites chance.
Proclaim broke the track record when powering home convincingly.
Riggins was never likely to start odds against, so apologies for that odds on winner.
There was a time when the authorities promised us quality racing on Sundays. But that was way back then, when they were pitching for the privilage of providing Sunday racing. Like most things in organisational life, promises are soon forgotten and thus we are left with the type of Sunday cards tomorrow throws up. Yuk! just doesn't say it....
Have a good Day in the Sun. It gets colder from next week.
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Saturday was 67% following Friday's 69%, Thursday's 75%, Wednesday's 71%, Tuesday's 71%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an final weekly average of exactly 72%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
The seven (4) and (5) UK graded races performed averagely on Saturday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, and one was won by the clear 2nd top rated. The other three races were unsuccessful.
I have to say the services were pummeled on Saturday night, especially at Newbury - though the top three of the speed ratings produced Sumani which won at 20/1 to follow the end of the afternoon winner Hits Only Vic which won at 28/1. So there were positives to be taken from the day - despite Newbury...
High Standing moved himself to the top of the Wokingham betting with another impressive display. All he wants now is good or better ground and a suitable draw to ensure he goes there with a favourites chance.
Proclaim broke the track record when powering home convincingly.
Riggins was never likely to start odds against, so apologies for that odds on winner.
There was a time when the authorities promised us quality racing on Sundays. But that was way back then, when they were pitching for the privilage of providing Sunday racing. Like most things in organisational life, promises are soon forgotten and thus we are left with the type of Sunday cards tomorrow throws up. Yuk! just doesn't say it....
Have a good Day in the Sun. It gets colder from next week.
Saturday, 30 May 2009
Winning High
You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was 69% following Thursday's 75%, Wednesday's 71%, Tuesday's 71%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an ongoing weekly average of just under 73%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
The eleven (4) and (5) UK graded races performance dropped on Friday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, and three were won by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint. The other five races were unsuccessful.
It seems too much racing has mangled my brain. Another blank on Friday. Rumble of Thunder went far too fast early and it was no surprise that he weakened very quickly late on. He was eventually eased down considerably but why jockeys do such things is beyond me. Surely they know they are going too fast....
Bollin Greta is obviously not the same horse this season. I would rather assume she has had problems rather than she is regressing. She didn't hit the heights until autumn last season and maybe it is simply that she is an autumn horse. We'll see later in the year. But I won't be backing her again until she recovers a semblance of last years form.
Only two things can happen Saturday. Either you will be very lucky with the handicaps and big fields maidens or you will be astute and cherry-pick the smaller fields - which don't appear any less competitive than the handicaps.
Smaller fields first: Riggins (5-40 Goodwood) was very unlucky last time. Though many unlucky horses fail miserably the next time they run, that shouldn't apply to Riggins. He finished in a hack canter he was going so well. It was simply that the gaps never appeared when he needed them. Unfortunately, everyone and his dog will have noticed and he may start very short. But 6/4 and above would be a good bet - if such odds are offered, that is.
Higher class Classified races are usually used by trainers when they consider their charges have too high a handicap mark. But Proclaim (3-30 Doncaster) is fully worthy of his mark and has seemingly been found a good opportunity to get back to winning. He has run well all season in competitive handicaps and should win this, really.
Even though he won by only half a length on his seasonal debut, there was a lot to like about the way High Standing (2-20 Goodwood) produced his perfomance. I was very taken with him and I can see him winning this on his way to this season's top sprint handicaps. At this moment, he seems a sprinter to follow.
Have a lucky Saturday.
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was 69% following Thursday's 75%, Wednesday's 71%, Tuesday's 71%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an ongoing weekly average of just under 73%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
The eleven (4) and (5) UK graded races performance dropped on Friday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, and three were won by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint. The other five races were unsuccessful.
It seems too much racing has mangled my brain. Another blank on Friday. Rumble of Thunder went far too fast early and it was no surprise that he weakened very quickly late on. He was eventually eased down considerably but why jockeys do such things is beyond me. Surely they know they are going too fast....
Bollin Greta is obviously not the same horse this season. I would rather assume she has had problems rather than she is regressing. She didn't hit the heights until autumn last season and maybe it is simply that she is an autumn horse. We'll see later in the year. But I won't be backing her again until she recovers a semblance of last years form.
Only two things can happen Saturday. Either you will be very lucky with the handicaps and big fields maidens or you will be astute and cherry-pick the smaller fields - which don't appear any less competitive than the handicaps.
Smaller fields first: Riggins (5-40 Goodwood) was very unlucky last time. Though many unlucky horses fail miserably the next time they run, that shouldn't apply to Riggins. He finished in a hack canter he was going so well. It was simply that the gaps never appeared when he needed them. Unfortunately, everyone and his dog will have noticed and he may start very short. But 6/4 and above would be a good bet - if such odds are offered, that is.
Higher class Classified races are usually used by trainers when they consider their charges have too high a handicap mark. But Proclaim (3-30 Doncaster) is fully worthy of his mark and has seemingly been found a good opportunity to get back to winning. He has run well all season in competitive handicaps and should win this, really.
Even though he won by only half a length on his seasonal debut, there was a lot to like about the way High Standing (2-20 Goodwood) produced his perfomance. I was very taken with him and I can see him winning this on his way to this season's top sprint handicaps. At this moment, he seems a sprinter to follow.
Have a lucky Saturday.
Thursday, 28 May 2009
Greta to Rumble
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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Thursday was 75% following Wednesday's 71%, Tuesday's 71%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an ongoing weekly average of just under 74%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
The twelve (4) and (5) UK graded races Thursday performed similarly to Wednesday . Four were won by the clear top rated horse, and four won by the 2nd top rated - two of them joint. The other four races were unsuccessful.
I have had a small handful of emails again asking me to come right out with it and tell them which I prefer: RacingUK or ATR. My final say on the matter is this: ATR have Zoey Bird and Claude Duval; RacingUK have Lydia Hislop and Steve Mellish. Make your own mind up which I prefer......
Well, when you get it wrong, you get it wrong............
Patkai was put firmly in his place by a seasoned stayer, Pipedreamer is always going to be vulnerable to a classy progresser, and Racketeer looks to have been flattered by his easy previous win - though he shouldn't be completely written off just yet.
On Friday, Bollin Greta (8-10 Haydock) is given one last chance to prove she is a staying handicapper with a future. She hasn't looked right on her two runs this term but with her trainer's other horses beginning to run well, she now should be ready to show her best. She progressed well last backend and it will be disappointing if she isn't involved in the finish.
David Arbuthnot has his limited string in fine form and his recent winner Rumble of Thunder (4-10 Goodwood) looks a good bet to follow up under a penalty. He beat Mabuya with some authority at Bath and though that rival will probably finish closer today, Rumble of Thunder should confirm the form with the excellent William Buick retaining the ride.
Have a good day.
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Thursday was 75% following Wednesday's 71%, Tuesday's 71%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an ongoing weekly average of just under 74%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
The twelve (4) and (5) UK graded races Thursday performed similarly to Wednesday . Four were won by the clear top rated horse, and four won by the 2nd top rated - two of them joint. The other four races were unsuccessful.
I have had a small handful of emails again asking me to come right out with it and tell them which I prefer: RacingUK or ATR. My final say on the matter is this: ATR have Zoey Bird and Claude Duval; RacingUK have Lydia Hislop and Steve Mellish. Make your own mind up which I prefer......
Well, when you get it wrong, you get it wrong............
Patkai was put firmly in his place by a seasoned stayer, Pipedreamer is always going to be vulnerable to a classy progresser, and Racketeer looks to have been flattered by his easy previous win - though he shouldn't be completely written off just yet.
On Friday, Bollin Greta (8-10 Haydock) is given one last chance to prove she is a staying handicapper with a future. She hasn't looked right on her two runs this term but with her trainer's other horses beginning to run well, she now should be ready to show her best. She progressed well last backend and it will be disappointing if she isn't involved in the finish.
David Arbuthnot has his limited string in fine form and his recent winner Rumble of Thunder (4-10 Goodwood) looks a good bet to follow up under a penalty. He beat Mabuya with some authority at Bath and though that rival will probably finish closer today, Rumble of Thunder should confirm the form with the excellent William Buick retaining the ride.
Have a good day.
Too Much Racing
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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Wednesday was 71%, following Tuesday's 71%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an ongoing weekly average of just over 73%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
The twelve (4) and (5) UK graded races didn't do quite as well, Wednesday. Four were won by the clear top rated horse, and four won by the 2nd top rated - three of them joint. The other four races were unsuccessful.
I think neither Kieran Fallon nor Lester Piggott could have won on Hel's Angel, Wednesday. But she was given a very curious ride. There are many reasons why the vast majority of jockeys never get beyond first base....
Wednesday should be held up as a prime example of the things wrong with horse racing in recent times. The effect of extending the race classes with the resultant "pandering to losers" increase in the the fixture list can be seen all over, Thursday - especially at Yarmouth. That card is positively overloaded with bad, bad racehorses running for moderate to poor trainers. Horse racing is the only sport I know that headlines daily with mediocrity. Until the breeders are taken to task, the result will be that horses like the many on Thursday face a life of hard work followed by the slaughter house. That may seem harsh. But it is reality. You look at last years horses that ran consistently in Class 6 and Class 7 races (Class 7 now defunct). See how many horses you can find that are running this season.....
According to at least one article, so many horses are being bred and the market for them so slim, many are being slaughtered as foals . Some have said the claims are hype not backed up by racing's own figures of slaughtered horses. But just read THIS ARTICLE and decide for yourselves. Personally, I would ensure that horse racing breeders are faced with an exhorbitant registration fee to help reduce the amount of horses being bred. It will never take away the slaughter but it will surely reduce it.
Opinionated rant over.
There are still some good trainers and horses running, Thursday (and yes, some are at Yarmouth). Sandown's card is a good one with a few Royal Ascot bound horses in competition. Patkai (7-10) should enhance his Gold Cup pretensions. And Pipedreamer should prove too pacy for Conduit over this trip in the Brigadier Gerard at 7-45.
I like the look of Racketeer in the Listed 8-20 race. He was impressive when beating Thief of Time at Sandown almost as easily as Desert Creek beat that horse at Haydock last weekend. He is far better than handicap class which is probably the reason he is upped to listed class rather than continuing on the handicap trail. The only way he would travel for a handicap like the Britannia at Royal Ascot, for example, is if he was beaten here. I don't envisage that happening.
Have a good day.
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Wednesday was 71%, following Tuesday's 71%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an ongoing weekly average of just over 73%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
The twelve (4) and (5) UK graded races didn't do quite as well, Wednesday. Four were won by the clear top rated horse, and four won by the 2nd top rated - three of them joint. The other four races were unsuccessful.
I think neither Kieran Fallon nor Lester Piggott could have won on Hel's Angel, Wednesday. But she was given a very curious ride. There are many reasons why the vast majority of jockeys never get beyond first base....
Wednesday should be held up as a prime example of the things wrong with horse racing in recent times. The effect of extending the race classes with the resultant "pandering to losers" increase in the the fixture list can be seen all over, Thursday - especially at Yarmouth. That card is positively overloaded with bad, bad racehorses running for moderate to poor trainers. Horse racing is the only sport I know that headlines daily with mediocrity. Until the breeders are taken to task, the result will be that horses like the many on Thursday face a life of hard work followed by the slaughter house. That may seem harsh. But it is reality. You look at last years horses that ran consistently in Class 6 and Class 7 races (Class 7 now defunct). See how many horses you can find that are running this season.....
According to at least one article, so many horses are being bred and the market for them so slim, many are being slaughtered as foals . Some have said the claims are hype not backed up by racing's own figures of slaughtered horses. But just read THIS ARTICLE and decide for yourselves. Personally, I would ensure that horse racing breeders are faced with an exhorbitant registration fee to help reduce the amount of horses being bred. It will never take away the slaughter but it will surely reduce it.
Opinionated rant over.
There are still some good trainers and horses running, Thursday (and yes, some are at Yarmouth). Sandown's card is a good one with a few Royal Ascot bound horses in competition. Patkai (7-10) should enhance his Gold Cup pretensions. And Pipedreamer should prove too pacy for Conduit over this trip in the Brigadier Gerard at 7-45.
I like the look of Racketeer in the Listed 8-20 race. He was impressive when beating Thief of Time at Sandown almost as easily as Desert Creek beat that horse at Haydock last weekend. He is far better than handicap class which is probably the reason he is upped to listed class rather than continuing on the handicap trail. The only way he would travel for a handicap like the Britannia at Royal Ascot, for example, is if he was beaten here. I don't envisage that happening.
Have a good day.
Tuesday, 26 May 2009
Angelic Wednesday
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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Tuesday was 71% following Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an ongoing weekly average of 74%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were six (4) and (5) UK graded races, Tuesday. Four were won by the clear top rated horse, and one was won by the clear 2nd top rated. The sixth race was unsuccessful.
Invincible Lad (3/1) won very sweetly indeed and it looks like he is capable of a step up in class.
Dead Or Alive (7/2) won well also and maintained Tim Vaughan's reputation of being able to improve horses he acquires from other stables.
Why pay £40 and more a month for a tipster to give you selections when you can visit this blog every day and get high quality selections like the ones above absolutely free? Check past blog entries to see how the quality is maintained almost daily. However, by relying solely on these tips you are missing out on scores of winners by not using our Handicap and Speed Ratings. If you are not sure about subscribing, simply register via the link above to test whether the ratings will be of any use in your search for profit. Remember, all the tips come directly from the ratings.
Having said all that I can't say too much peaks my interest overnight. There are a few likely short priced winners, Wednesday, but they will be too short for me to take any serious interest in them. I'm talking about the likes of Lemon N Sugar (2-30 Lingfield) and Waffle (7-50 Beverley) but neither are worth the risk. The first runs on the dreaded All Weather and the latter has a couple of dangerous rivals against her. Both may win but I'm not interested at the likely odds each will probably start.
Hel's Angel did me a big favour when she won from an awkward draw at Thirsk last time and I am not going to desert her from a plum draw in Beverley's 6-20. The big danger comes from the in form Fahey yard with Mr Freddy. But Hel's Angel won against the odds last time in the style of a progressive filly and will do for me. The dutch could be a saver bet.
Have a good day.
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Tuesday was 71% following Monday's 70% and Sunday's 81% (an ongoing weekly average of 74%). If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were six (4) and (5) UK graded races, Tuesday. Four were won by the clear top rated horse, and one was won by the clear 2nd top rated. The sixth race was unsuccessful.
Invincible Lad (3/1) won very sweetly indeed and it looks like he is capable of a step up in class.
Dead Or Alive (7/2) won well also and maintained Tim Vaughan's reputation of being able to improve horses he acquires from other stables.
Why pay £40 and more a month for a tipster to give you selections when you can visit this blog every day and get high quality selections like the ones above absolutely free? Check past blog entries to see how the quality is maintained almost daily. However, by relying solely on these tips you are missing out on scores of winners by not using our Handicap and Speed Ratings. If you are not sure about subscribing, simply register via the link above to test whether the ratings will be of any use in your search for profit. Remember, all the tips come directly from the ratings.
Having said all that I can't say too much peaks my interest overnight. There are a few likely short priced winners, Wednesday, but they will be too short for me to take any serious interest in them. I'm talking about the likes of Lemon N Sugar (2-30 Lingfield) and Waffle (7-50 Beverley) but neither are worth the risk. The first runs on the dreaded All Weather and the latter has a couple of dangerous rivals against her. Both may win but I'm not interested at the likely odds each will probably start.
Hel's Angel did me a big favour when she won from an awkward draw at Thirsk last time and I am not going to desert her from a plum draw in Beverley's 6-20. The big danger comes from the in form Fahey yard with Mr Freddy. But Hel's Angel won against the odds last time in the style of a progressive filly and will do for me. The dutch could be a saver bet.
Have a good day.
Monday, 25 May 2009
Vaughan Alive to Tuesday
You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was 70%, following Sunday's 81%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were nine (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, and three were won by the 2nd top rated - two of them joint.
Kingdom Of Fife proved that he should have won the Chester race. He won very comfortably indeed from a field of fairly good handicappers.
Perfect Silence wasn't as fit as I had thought she would be. She ran like a winner until the pressure was applied and was clearly not 100% race fit. Training fitness and competition fitness are not the same thing - as any athlete will tell you. So I fully expect her to improve quite a lot from this run. I have to admit I didn't back her in the end. I don't care if the horse is Nijinsky, Secretariat or Man O'War, I do not bet odds on on seasonal debuts. It is the way to the poor house and I have bills to pay.....
Tim Vaughan has a knack of improving horses from other stables and has another improver in Dead Or Alive (6-50 Huntingdon). Bought out of the Hourigan stable last summer he was produced to win two fair points, ran 2nd in a good novice hunter chase, then produced a gutsy run to beat Nostringsattached earlier this month at Plumpton. It is clear Tim Vaughan has got the best out of him and he looks a likely one for Tuesday. A little bit of rain won't go against him but a downpour would put the race in the air. But as it stands tonight, with Richard Johnson having a healthy strike rate on the stable's horses (currently 67% on the Vaughan chasers this 2009/10 season so far), he looks fairly good bet. The danger seems to be Saafend Rocket who is another improver and whose chance would be improved should any rain get deep into the ground.
Invincible Lad improved last year to win five times on the All Weather and Turf. He is fifteen pounds higher than his last turf win but a couple of things point my eye to his running a big race in Leicester's 4-30. First, Richard Hughes is not used much by the Alston stable but when he is the win record is high. Second, and more relevantly, he ran his seasonal debut at Thirsk like the epitomic horse needing one run to put him spot on. He ran very well until fitness told and he faded in the last furlong. That run will have made him cherry ripe for this and he now has the chance to show he is at his 4-Y-O prime.
Have a good day.
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was 70%, following Sunday's 81%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were nine (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, and three were won by the 2nd top rated - two of them joint.
Kingdom Of Fife proved that he should have won the Chester race. He won very comfortably indeed from a field of fairly good handicappers.
Perfect Silence wasn't as fit as I had thought she would be. She ran like a winner until the pressure was applied and was clearly not 100% race fit. Training fitness and competition fitness are not the same thing - as any athlete will tell you. So I fully expect her to improve quite a lot from this run. I have to admit I didn't back her in the end. I don't care if the horse is Nijinsky, Secretariat or Man O'War, I do not bet odds on on seasonal debuts. It is the way to the poor house and I have bills to pay.....
Tim Vaughan has a knack of improving horses from other stables and has another improver in Dead Or Alive (6-50 Huntingdon). Bought out of the Hourigan stable last summer he was produced to win two fair points, ran 2nd in a good novice hunter chase, then produced a gutsy run to beat Nostringsattached earlier this month at Plumpton. It is clear Tim Vaughan has got the best out of him and he looks a likely one for Tuesday. A little bit of rain won't go against him but a downpour would put the race in the air. But as it stands tonight, with Richard Johnson having a healthy strike rate on the stable's horses (currently 67% on the Vaughan chasers this 2009/10 season so far), he looks fairly good bet. The danger seems to be Saafend Rocket who is another improver and whose chance would be improved should any rain get deep into the ground.
Invincible Lad improved last year to win five times on the All Weather and Turf. He is fifteen pounds higher than his last turf win but a couple of things point my eye to his running a big race in Leicester's 4-30. First, Richard Hughes is not used much by the Alston stable but when he is the win record is high. Second, and more relevantly, he ran his seasonal debut at Thirsk like the epitomic horse needing one run to put him spot on. He ran very well until fitness told and he faded in the last furlong. That run will have made him cherry ripe for this and he now has the chance to show he is at his 4-Y-O prime.
Have a good day.
Perfect Monday
You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Sunday was 81%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
All four(4) and (5) UK graded races were successful, Sunday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, the fourth race was won by the joint 2nd top rated.
Two of Clive Cox's regular riders have gone elsewhere to ride for their respective stables (Adam Kirby goes to Goodwood to ride Pinpoint (3-10) and Phillip Robinson travels to Leicester to ride Dhushan (5-40) ) which leaves the Leicester ride on Perfect Silence (3-15) available to the regular third choice, Eddie Ahern. Ahern has an excellent record on the Cox 3-Y-O's but not on his 4-Y-O's. But that could change, Monday. Perfect Silence was on a steep upward curve last season and enters this season on a very reasonable handicap mark. She finished her races very strongly over 6f last year and goes here defending her unbeaten handicap record. The race will have been pencilled in as the ideal race to start her 2009 sprinting campaign and she will be fit to do herself justice. And if the rains arrive her chance will be more improved. That the Cox horses are running well gives extra confidence. Filligree and Doric Lady seem the obvious dangers.
Kingdom of Fife (3-55 Redcar) should provide Michael Stoute with his second Heritage handicap winner in three days. He really should have won last time at Chester and I am confident he will reverse placings with his conqueror, Cheshire Prince, for whom the post came just in time. Many have said it was a weak race that day but had the race run been run to suit, he would have won fairly comfortably. The 5lb rise for being beaten is a bit irksome, but he should have the class to win off the official 87 handicap mark.
Have a good Bank Holiday.
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Sunday was 81%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
All four(4) and (5) UK graded races were successful, Sunday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, the fourth race was won by the joint 2nd top rated.
Two of Clive Cox's regular riders have gone elsewhere to ride for their respective stables (Adam Kirby goes to Goodwood to ride Pinpoint (3-10) and Phillip Robinson travels to Leicester to ride Dhushan (5-40) ) which leaves the Leicester ride on Perfect Silence (3-15) available to the regular third choice, Eddie Ahern. Ahern has an excellent record on the Cox 3-Y-O's but not on his 4-Y-O's. But that could change, Monday. Perfect Silence was on a steep upward curve last season and enters this season on a very reasonable handicap mark. She finished her races very strongly over 6f last year and goes here defending her unbeaten handicap record. The race will have been pencilled in as the ideal race to start her 2009 sprinting campaign and she will be fit to do herself justice. And if the rains arrive her chance will be more improved. That the Cox horses are running well gives extra confidence. Filligree and Doric Lady seem the obvious dangers.
Kingdom of Fife (3-55 Redcar) should provide Michael Stoute with his second Heritage handicap winner in three days. He really should have won last time at Chester and I am confident he will reverse placings with his conqueror, Cheshire Prince, for whom the post came just in time. Many have said it was a weak race that day but had the race run been run to suit, he would have won fairly comfortably. The 5lb rise for being beaten is a bit irksome, but he should have the class to win off the official 87 handicap mark.
Have a good Bank Holiday.
Saturday, 23 May 2009
Bolger's Reason For Laughter
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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three percentage strike rate for Saturday was 68% bringing the weekly average (Sunday to Saturday) to 72.5%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings this week, then it was highly likely it didn't win. When including the fourth top rated of each service the figure was well into the 80s%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Saturday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and three were won by the 2nd top rated -- two of them joint. The remaining two races were unsuccessful.
Desert Creek won very comfortably after running free for a while early. He was far too good for these and his Royal Ascot Britannia option looks in danger as the handicapper won't be too kind on him after this.
The dutch bet was successful, though I was ruing the decision not to have bet Bouvardia to win on her own.
Delegator proved very disappointing in the Irish 2000 Guineas. He looked okay until the pressure was applied and after he drifted both times at Newmarket, the suspicion is beginning to surface that he doesn't like being "got at" by his rider.
Waterdale, my fun each way punt was declared lame and unable to run early Saturday morning. I'm not sure I'll be brave enough to punt on him in the future unless the race looks exactly like today's.
The Irish 1000 Guineas takes center stage tomorrow (3-40 Curragh). I can't help feeling that the heavy ground will enable Lahaleeb to run a big race, but I think Cuis Ghaire will add to Mr Bolger's Classic tally.
Over in France, Quevega (4-35 Auteuil) looks likely to uphold Willie Mullins's good record at the track.
There is nothing else too exciting to think about betting overnight, so I will be looking again in the morning. Not sure I will be too tempted, though.
Have an easy Sunday.
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three percentage strike rate for Saturday was 68% bringing the weekly average (Sunday to Saturday) to 72.5%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings this week, then it was highly likely it didn't win. When including the fourth top rated of each service the figure was well into the 80s%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Saturday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and three were won by the 2nd top rated -- two of them joint. The remaining two races were unsuccessful.
Desert Creek won very comfortably after running free for a while early. He was far too good for these and his Royal Ascot Britannia option looks in danger as the handicapper won't be too kind on him after this.
The dutch bet was successful, though I was ruing the decision not to have bet Bouvardia to win on her own.
Delegator proved very disappointing in the Irish 2000 Guineas. He looked okay until the pressure was applied and after he drifted both times at Newmarket, the suspicion is beginning to surface that he doesn't like being "got at" by his rider.
Waterdale, my fun each way punt was declared lame and unable to run early Saturday morning. I'm not sure I'll be brave enough to punt on him in the future unless the race looks exactly like today's.
The Irish 1000 Guineas takes center stage tomorrow (3-40 Curragh). I can't help feeling that the heavy ground will enable Lahaleeb to run a big race, but I think Cuis Ghaire will add to Mr Bolger's Classic tally.
Over in France, Quevega (4-35 Auteuil) looks likely to uphold Willie Mullins's good record at the track.
There is nothing else too exciting to think about betting overnight, so I will be looking again in the morning. Not sure I will be too tempted, though.
Have an easy Sunday.
Friday, 22 May 2009
It's All Creek To Me
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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three percentage strike rate dipped below 65%, Friday to 64%. Thursday's figure was 82% following Wednesday's figure of 75%, Tuesday's figure of 71%, Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75% - a week's average so far (six days) of over 73%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. When including the fourth top rated of each service the figure was well into the 80s%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were seven (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and two were won by the joint 2nd top rated. The remaining two races were unsuccessful.
Ziggy Lee didn't enjoy that win at all. I don't think any horse enjoys Brighton, but he won simply because he was the only horse in the race in reasonable recent form. The 7/2 SP was a pleasant shock since I rated him a 6/4 chance.
Full of Love ran a very good race to finish 2nd at 11/2. He was never going to get the race in the stewards room but I suppose it gave temporary hope to people who didn't actually see the race. It would have been a major suprise had the winner been thrown out. He won the race on merit.
Saturday beckons with some good looking races. I expect Delegator to confirm English Guineas form in the Irish equivalent race. Recharge is a sound alternative if you want a likely placed horse to improve past the two favourites.
The best 3-Y-O handicap of the season at Haydock (3-40) looks bound for the Stoute yard in the shape of Desert Creek. He won effectively enough last time to suggest that his updated mark of 87 is reasonable enough. There are a host of dangers such as Fareer but of the overnight lesser fancied horses, Thief of Time now has the ground that could see him achieve his potential and thus reward each way backers at a fairish price (generally 10/1 overnight).
I would have gone for Bouvardia (3-25 Newmarket) had it not been for Proclaim being in the race. Both horses are on an upward curve with Proclaim probably improving at a faster rate. I see a dutch bet in the making.
Waterdale (8-00 Cartmel) wouldn't be the obvious horse to bet. Moderate, one of the lowest rated hurdlers in the country, from a small stable that has had four winners in five years, and bottom weight in a selling handicap hurdle at a remote low grade North Western racecourse. But he has fewer convictions than most of the field and ran a promising race (in selling race terms) when 6th last time at Wetherby. The curious nature of Cartmel can sometimes throw up unlikely results and since Waterdale is weighted to dead heat with one of the race favourites (Moon Melody) he is worth a small each way punt for fun.
Have a good Weekend.
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three percentage strike rate dipped below 65%, Friday to 64%. Thursday's figure was 82% following Wednesday's figure of 75%, Tuesday's figure of 71%, Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75% - a week's average so far (six days) of over 73%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. When including the fourth top rated of each service the figure was well into the 80s%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were seven (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and two were won by the joint 2nd top rated. The remaining two races were unsuccessful.
Ziggy Lee didn't enjoy that win at all. I don't think any horse enjoys Brighton, but he won simply because he was the only horse in the race in reasonable recent form. The 7/2 SP was a pleasant shock since I rated him a 6/4 chance.
Full of Love ran a very good race to finish 2nd at 11/2. He was never going to get the race in the stewards room but I suppose it gave temporary hope to people who didn't actually see the race. It would have been a major suprise had the winner been thrown out. He won the race on merit.
Saturday beckons with some good looking races. I expect Delegator to confirm English Guineas form in the Irish equivalent race. Recharge is a sound alternative if you want a likely placed horse to improve past the two favourites.
The best 3-Y-O handicap of the season at Haydock (3-40) looks bound for the Stoute yard in the shape of Desert Creek. He won effectively enough last time to suggest that his updated mark of 87 is reasonable enough. There are a host of dangers such as Fareer but of the overnight lesser fancied horses, Thief of Time now has the ground that could see him achieve his potential and thus reward each way backers at a fairish price (generally 10/1 overnight).
I would have gone for Bouvardia (3-25 Newmarket) had it not been for Proclaim being in the race. Both horses are on an upward curve with Proclaim probably improving at a faster rate. I see a dutch bet in the making.
Waterdale (8-00 Cartmel) wouldn't be the obvious horse to bet. Moderate, one of the lowest rated hurdlers in the country, from a small stable that has had four winners in five years, and bottom weight in a selling handicap hurdle at a remote low grade North Western racecourse. But he has fewer convictions than most of the field and ran a promising race (in selling race terms) when 6th last time at Wetherby. The curious nature of Cartmel can sometimes throw up unlikely results and since Waterdale is weighted to dead heat with one of the race favourites (Moon Melody) he is worth a small each way punt for fun.
Have a good Weekend.
Thursday, 21 May 2009
Love in the North
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The Speed Ratings have become a lucrative addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Thursday's figure was 82% following Wednesday's figure of 75%, Tuesday's figure of 71%, Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75% - a week's average so far of over 75%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. When including the fourth top rated of each service the figure was well into the 80s%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were ten (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday. Six were won by the clear top rated horse and three were won by the 2nd top rated - two of them joint 2nd top. The remaining race was unsuccessful.
Bin End wasn't outstayed by the winner as one pundit seemed to claim - nor is he ungenuine. It was more a case of the pace not being suitable to him. They sprinted from the 2f marker - which explains why Jamie Spencer took it up that early. Because of the slow early pace he took it up hoping to outstay his rivals on the run to the line. It was a gallant attempt but he is not a early race strolling, final two furlong sprinter. He needs a strong pace throughout - and I am surprised that Jamie Spencer didn't take up the running to ensure that, instead of posing (very nicely, I might add) in the rear. I will be looking for front running and prominent racing rivals when assessing the next time he runs. It is surprising how many 3-Y-O middle distance races are run so serenely in the early stages. It makes for some very unusual results - though not in this case because the winner is a talented horse.
Leocorno won in the way expected. It was visually impressive and a good education for her. Okay, she only beat average handicappers but the way she won suggests there are a massive amounts of improvement in her from this run. She might not win the Oaks but she should be a force over 10f.
Kimberley Bay was a non runner due to being lame.
Barry Hills is always worth seriously considering when he sends a fancied handicapper up to my local course. There was a lot to like about how Full Of Love (8-00 Pontefract) pulled clear last time at Wolverhampton (one of my least favourite courses). The form can't be taken too literally because it was a very different surface to the likely yielding Pontefract. But previous winners of this race have been similar progressive sorts and she can continue her progression by winning this race.
I have to say I'm surprised that Ziggy Lee (2-30) has been sent to the quirky Brighton track. But he is in such good form relative to his rivals, it is hard to deny he has an excellent chance to recover from his his disqualification at Newmarket last week - a race I am still convinced he would have won had he not jinked so badly in the final furlong.
Have a good day
The Speed Ratings have become a lucrative addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Thursday's figure was 82% following Wednesday's figure of 75%, Tuesday's figure of 71%, Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75% - a week's average so far of over 75%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. When including the fourth top rated of each service the figure was well into the 80s%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were ten (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday. Six were won by the clear top rated horse and three were won by the 2nd top rated - two of them joint 2nd top. The remaining race was unsuccessful.
Bin End wasn't outstayed by the winner as one pundit seemed to claim - nor is he ungenuine. It was more a case of the pace not being suitable to him. They sprinted from the 2f marker - which explains why Jamie Spencer took it up that early. Because of the slow early pace he took it up hoping to outstay his rivals on the run to the line. It was a gallant attempt but he is not a early race strolling, final two furlong sprinter. He needs a strong pace throughout - and I am surprised that Jamie Spencer didn't take up the running to ensure that, instead of posing (very nicely, I might add) in the rear. I will be looking for front running and prominent racing rivals when assessing the next time he runs. It is surprising how many 3-Y-O middle distance races are run so serenely in the early stages. It makes for some very unusual results - though not in this case because the winner is a talented horse.
Leocorno won in the way expected. It was visually impressive and a good education for her. Okay, she only beat average handicappers but the way she won suggests there are a massive amounts of improvement in her from this run. She might not win the Oaks but she should be a force over 10f.
Kimberley Bay was a non runner due to being lame.
Barry Hills is always worth seriously considering when he sends a fancied handicapper up to my local course. There was a lot to like about how Full Of Love (8-00 Pontefract) pulled clear last time at Wolverhampton (one of my least favourite courses). The form can't be taken too literally because it was a very different surface to the likely yielding Pontefract. But previous winners of this race have been similar progressive sorts and she can continue her progression by winning this race.
I have to say I'm surprised that Ziggy Lee (2-30) has been sent to the quirky Brighton track. But he is in such good form relative to his rivals, it is hard to deny he has an excellent chance to recover from his his disqualification at Newmarket last week - a race I am still convinced he would have won had he not jinked so badly in the final furlong.
Have a good day
Wednesday, 20 May 2009
Handicap and Speed Ratings Stunner
The Handicap Ratings and the Speed Ratings ended Wednesday with a bookies nightmare. In the last race of the day at Sedgefield both the handicap and the speed ratings clear top rated Moyne Pleasure which won at the massive odds of 40/1, the complete outsider of the field - but not in the minds of TowerForm subscribers.
You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
The Speed Ratings continue to be a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Wednesday's figure was 75% following Tuesday's figure of 71%, Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and two were won by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint 2nd top. The other two races were unsuccessful.
Lawaaheb ran averagely, Wednesday, never looking likely to win.
On Thursday, some people claim that Jamie Spencer should have made a faster pace when leading on Bin End (3-25 Goodwood) last time. But it was a very good ride in my humble opinion. The horse was very keen on his winning debut and Spencer made sure he got him settled better. That he lost and finished a close 4th was more down to the tenacity of the others (including Barwell Bridge) than any deficiency in either the horse or the rider's tactics. He looks likely to run a big race tomorrow and will be carrying my money with a fair amount of confidence.
Leocorno (8-35 Sandown) will be the horse to watch but not back at the likely long odds on she will probably start. She has an entry in the Oaks and if she is to make that engagement she really should win this in a hack canter off the lowly mark of 78.
Another handicapper with a classic entry (Derby) is Kimberley Downs (6-20 Sandown). But he looks more like a useful long distance handicapper than a middle distance classic winner. It is usually not my betting style to bet 12f and above 3-Y-O handicappers, but he promises to rise a fair bit in the handicap as the season progresses. So his current mark of 83 is very reasonable. He should at least place and I will be looking there to supplement a win bet: I don't think he will start at long enough odds for an each way bet.
Have a good Day.
You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
The Speed Ratings continue to be a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Wednesday's figure was 75% following Tuesday's figure of 71%, Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and two were won by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint 2nd top. The other two races were unsuccessful.
Lawaaheb ran averagely, Wednesday, never looking likely to win.
On Thursday, some people claim that Jamie Spencer should have made a faster pace when leading on Bin End (3-25 Goodwood) last time. But it was a very good ride in my humble opinion. The horse was very keen on his winning debut and Spencer made sure he got him settled better. That he lost and finished a close 4th was more down to the tenacity of the others (including Barwell Bridge) than any deficiency in either the horse or the rider's tactics. He looks likely to run a big race tomorrow and will be carrying my money with a fair amount of confidence.
Leocorno (8-35 Sandown) will be the horse to watch but not back at the likely long odds on she will probably start. She has an entry in the Oaks and if she is to make that engagement she really should win this in a hack canter off the lowly mark of 78.
Another handicapper with a classic entry (Derby) is Kimberley Downs (6-20 Sandown). But he looks more like a useful long distance handicapper than a middle distance classic winner. It is usually not my betting style to bet 12f and above 3-Y-O handicappers, but he promises to rise a fair bit in the handicap as the season progresses. So his current mark of 83 is very reasonable. He should at least place and I will be looking there to supplement a win bet: I don't think he will start at long enough odds for an each way bet.
Have a good Day.
Tuesday, 19 May 2009
Speed Ratings Forge on
You can view our two main services (Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
The Speed Ratings continue to be a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Tuesday's figure was 71%, following Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Tuesday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and three were won by the clear 2nd top rated. The other two races were unsuccessful.
Tuesday was a washout for the blog. The dutch never looked likely to be hit and Angaric showed very briefly two out then weakened. Ah, well, there's always another day.
Lawaaheb (8-00 Sedgefield) seems to have been running forever but has found good form since his switch to the Walfords. He's up 9lbs for his win two starts ago but ran an excellent race off this mark when beaten by the now sadly departed Apocolozzo. There are a handful of rivals to give him a test but he should be up to it.
Have a good day.
The Speed Ratings continue to be a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Tuesday's figure was 71%, following Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Tuesday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and three were won by the clear 2nd top rated. The other two races were unsuccessful.
Tuesday was a washout for the blog. The dutch never looked likely to be hit and Angaric showed very briefly two out then weakened. Ah, well, there's always another day.
Lawaaheb (8-00 Sedgefield) seems to have been running forever but has found good form since his switch to the Walfords. He's up 9lbs for his win two starts ago but ran an excellent race off this mark when beaten by the now sadly departed Apocolozzo. There are a handful of rivals to give him a test but he should be up to it.
Have a good day.
Monday, 18 May 2009
Dutch Tuesday
You can view our two main services (Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
The Speed Ratings continue to be a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Monday's figure was 73% following Sunday's 75%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
There were eight(4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and one by the joint top rated (joint because the original top rated was a non runner), two were won by the 2nd top rated - one of which was joint 2nd top. The other two races were unsuccessful.
Monsieur Chevalier was more impressive than it first looked. He showed (me, at least) that a sixth furlong would suit. He should go to Royal Ascot's Coventry Stakes with a favourite's chance.
Kyllachy Storm seemed to struggle to beat off the runner up. Yet, it also looked as though he wasn't really striding out on the ground which was a bit softer than when he last won - although the balance of his form suggests he is better with this amount of give. The third was a long way back and he could suffer quite a lot for this win. It will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts.
I cannot explain the run of Dice. Yes, he was not given an easy passage at times in the race, and true he did run a bit free - but only for a short time, and there could be an excuse about the rain softened ground. But he was beaten without any fight and there didn't seem to be any hint that he is going to win too soon after this. He is with the right trainer to bring out the best in him. I only hope Dice isn't the wimp he appeared to be here. Next time will obviously tell more.
There isn't too much that lights up my betting radar, Tuesday. Rapid Water (6-40 Leicester) is a promising son of the legendary Lochsong and should go well. He travelled very well and quickened nicely when beating a Godolphin hot pot last time. He seems only to have Devil You Know to beat. That horse won his maiden tidily after starting slowly and, on the bare form, seems to have produced the best performance of the two. But Rapid Water looks likely to improve a bit more for the run and the race looks a very good Dutching opportunity.
Angaric (3-50 Musselburgh) is in form, does well at the course, has his ground and has been raised only a pound for his win there last time. And his trainer has an excellent record at the course. Those are enough ticked boxes for me to bet him small tomorrow.
Have a rainless Tuesday - if you can.
The Speed Ratings continue to be a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Monday's figure was 73% following Sunday's 75%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
There were eight(4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and one by the joint top rated (joint because the original top rated was a non runner), two were won by the 2nd top rated - one of which was joint 2nd top. The other two races were unsuccessful.
Monsieur Chevalier was more impressive than it first looked. He showed (me, at least) that a sixth furlong would suit. He should go to Royal Ascot's Coventry Stakes with a favourite's chance.
Kyllachy Storm seemed to struggle to beat off the runner up. Yet, it also looked as though he wasn't really striding out on the ground which was a bit softer than when he last won - although the balance of his form suggests he is better with this amount of give. The third was a long way back and he could suffer quite a lot for this win. It will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts.
I cannot explain the run of Dice. Yes, he was not given an easy passage at times in the race, and true he did run a bit free - but only for a short time, and there could be an excuse about the rain softened ground. But he was beaten without any fight and there didn't seem to be any hint that he is going to win too soon after this. He is with the right trainer to bring out the best in him. I only hope Dice isn't the wimp he appeared to be here. Next time will obviously tell more.
There isn't too much that lights up my betting radar, Tuesday. Rapid Water (6-40 Leicester) is a promising son of the legendary Lochsong and should go well. He travelled very well and quickened nicely when beating a Godolphin hot pot last time. He seems only to have Devil You Know to beat. That horse won his maiden tidily after starting slowly and, on the bare form, seems to have produced the best performance of the two. But Rapid Water looks likely to improve a bit more for the run and the race looks a very good Dutching opportunity.
Angaric (3-50 Musselburgh) is in form, does well at the course, has his ground and has been raised only a pound for his win there last time. And his trainer has an excellent record at the course. Those are enough ticked boxes for me to bet him small tomorrow.
Have a rainless Tuesday - if you can.
Go Dancing On Dice
The Speed Ratings and the handicaps were in good form Sunday - except for Market Rasen........
The combined top three rated speed ratings and handicaps provided 75% winners, a fair day considering Market Rasen was a two from seven wash out.
You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. The addition of the speed ratings means there has never been a better time to subscribe.
If you want to sample the winners, you can view our two main services (Handicap with Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
There were six (4) and (5) UK graded races, Sunday, with four being successful. None were won by the clear top rated horse; four were won by the 2nd top rated - three of them joint; and two races were unsuccessful - both at Market Rasen........
Monday has a bedraggled appearance. But there are one or two decent races floating in the general sea of flotsam. Monsieur Chevalier (6-40 Windsor) is the star of the day. Unfortunately, since is price will be long odds on, it can only be a watching race to see if he can further confirm my impression that he is the best 2-Y-O seen so far this season.
Elsewhere, Kyllachy Storm (3-30 Bath) has improved this year and quickened so effectively at this track last time, that it is hard to deny his chance of winning again despite a 7lbs rise in the weights.
Dice (4-30 Bath) is bred to stay and was given the perfect seasonal debut pipe-opener behind easy maiden winner (Shabib) over 7f at Folkstone last month. Today's trip (10f) may eventually prove to be his minimum, but at this stage of his career it will be ideal. In form Luca Cumani knows how to prepare 3-Y-Os for handicaps and Dice looks one to be on, Monday.
Have a good day.
The combined top three rated speed ratings and handicaps provided 75% winners, a fair day considering Market Rasen was a two from seven wash out.
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There were six (4) and (5) UK graded races, Sunday, with four being successful. None were won by the clear top rated horse; four were won by the 2nd top rated - three of them joint; and two races were unsuccessful - both at Market Rasen........
Monday has a bedraggled appearance. But there are one or two decent races floating in the general sea of flotsam. Monsieur Chevalier (6-40 Windsor) is the star of the day. Unfortunately, since is price will be long odds on, it can only be a watching race to see if he can further confirm my impression that he is the best 2-Y-O seen so far this season.
Elsewhere, Kyllachy Storm (3-30 Bath) has improved this year and quickened so effectively at this track last time, that it is hard to deny his chance of winning again despite a 7lbs rise in the weights.
Dice (4-30 Bath) is bred to stay and was given the perfect seasonal debut pipe-opener behind easy maiden winner (Shabib) over 7f at Folkstone last month. Today's trip (10f) may eventually prove to be his minimum, but at this stage of his career it will be ideal. In form Luca Cumani knows how to prepare 3-Y-Os for handicaps and Dice looks one to be on, Monday.
Have a good day.
Saturday, 16 May 2009
Stunning Principles
The Speed Ratings clear top rated produced a few stunning results, Saturday. It began with Tillys Tale Won 12/1, continued with Hel's Angel Won 16/1, then came Von Origny 2nd at 25/1. But the Speed Ratings left the best until last. First was joint 2nd top rated Photogenique 3rd at 80/1 - the winner was clear top rated Erzen 4/9, and the second was the other joint 2nd top Devon Native 14/1. Then came the stunning clear top rated No Principles Won 66/1 in the last race at Uttoxeter.
The combined top three of the handicap ratings and the speed ratings produced a 68% winning strike rate.
You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. The addition of the speed ratings means that there has never been a better time to subscribe.
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But the (4) and (5) UK graded races performed averagely, with seven being successful out of eleven races. Five races were won by the clear top rated and two by the 2nd top rated. Four races were unsuccessful.
Yesterdays selection also performed well -though the winning SPs were dissapointing. Aqwaal (W6/4) showed a lot of courage to win an extended battle with the runner up and needed all of the 10f to succeed. Main Aim (W2/1) produced an impressive perfomance to show that he is indeed better than handicapping class.
The each way selection, Floor Show, was never going to reach the 20/1 overnight forecast price of the Racing Post. He was a solid 8/1 in the betting and ran a good 2nd. He looked as though he would win half a furlong out but he was just outrun in the final stages. I can't help feeling that had he been drawn nearer the rail (a bias shown all night) he would have won. But he made a profit.
Sunday is a day of afternoon rest for me (visiting mother), so I will be having a quiet betting day. Back to normal for Monday.
Have a good day.
The combined top three of the handicap ratings and the speed ratings produced a 68% winning strike rate.
You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. The addition of the speed ratings means that there has never been a better time to subscribe.
If you want to sample the winners, you can view our two main services (Handicap with Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
But the (4) and (5) UK graded races performed averagely, with seven being successful out of eleven races. Five races were won by the clear top rated and two by the 2nd top rated. Four races were unsuccessful.
Yesterdays selection also performed well -though the winning SPs were dissapointing. Aqwaal (W6/4) showed a lot of courage to win an extended battle with the runner up and needed all of the 10f to succeed. Main Aim (W2/1) produced an impressive perfomance to show that he is indeed better than handicapping class.
The each way selection, Floor Show, was never going to reach the 20/1 overnight forecast price of the Racing Post. He was a solid 8/1 in the betting and ran a good 2nd. He looked as though he would win half a furlong out but he was just outrun in the final stages. I can't help feeling that had he been drawn nearer the rail (a bias shown all night) he would have won. But he made a profit.
Sunday is a day of afternoon rest for me (visiting mother), so I will be having a quiet betting day. Back to normal for Monday.
Have a good day.
Take Aim on Saturday
The sudden barometric change, Friday, produced a few weird results and impacted on the combined performance of the speed and handicap ratings. The combined results of the top three dipped below 60% to 58%. I think Nostadamus and Mother Sipton in unison would have had trouble predicting some of the winners today.
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The barometric change also affected the (4) and (5) UK graded races, with seven being successful out of twelve races. Five races were won by the clear top rated and two by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint. Five races were unsuccessful.
Misheer showed battling qualities to win by a very short head, and Ask proved he's best first time up by winning convincingly. Sana Abel is now clearly not as good as her breeding would suggest. There is the possibilty that the softened ground was against her, but she did fold rather tamely. And the other Jarvis horse I thought would win, Cape Express, also ran a fairly lifeless race. But he should not be discarded yet. He may be worth a try over further.
Saturday beckons with the possibility of more rain softening the ground even further. The ratings themselves will not be affected as any horse standing its ground will be deemed to be suited to the ground. The forecast and possible changed ground has been factored into the ratings.
That said, I will be waiting until closer to race time for many of my bets. But as it stands overnight, Aqwaal (3-10 Newbury) is proven over rain affected ground and was a ready winner last time over Sandown's stiff 10f. He's gone up 9lbs in the handicap but the manner of his win suggested he is capable of even more improvement and Newbury should suit him well.
In Newbury's 3-45, I like the look of Main Aim. He didn't see the racecourse until last summer and improved quickly enough to be thought capable of handling listed class but proved not yet ready for the task. He has been kept in training with a trainer who is peerless with 4-Y-Os and older horses. With a winter of his growing to maturity, I expect him to take this before ultimately improving this year to be capable of winning higher class races.
Floor Show (8-10 Doncaster) is not the finished article yet which makes his past two wins look better than they read in the form book. On the bare form he should dead-heat with Ricoh (who he beat last time) but I expect him to confirm that form. For a horse likely to continue progressing, he is a huge overnight forecast price (20/1). That could be because there are some big stables involved in the race. Even so, he looks too tempting an each way opportunity to miss
You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. The addition of the speed ratings means that there has never been a better time to subscribe.
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The barometric change also affected the (4) and (5) UK graded races, with seven being successful out of twelve races. Five races were won by the clear top rated and two by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint. Five races were unsuccessful.
Misheer showed battling qualities to win by a very short head, and Ask proved he's best first time up by winning convincingly. Sana Abel is now clearly not as good as her breeding would suggest. There is the possibilty that the softened ground was against her, but she did fold rather tamely. And the other Jarvis horse I thought would win, Cape Express, also ran a fairly lifeless race. But he should not be discarded yet. He may be worth a try over further.
Saturday beckons with the possibility of more rain softening the ground even further. The ratings themselves will not be affected as any horse standing its ground will be deemed to be suited to the ground. The forecast and possible changed ground has been factored into the ratings.
That said, I will be waiting until closer to race time for many of my bets. But as it stands overnight, Aqwaal (3-10 Newbury) is proven over rain affected ground and was a ready winner last time over Sandown's stiff 10f. He's gone up 9lbs in the handicap but the manner of his win suggested he is capable of even more improvement and Newbury should suit him well.
In Newbury's 3-45, I like the look of Main Aim. He didn't see the racecourse until last summer and improved quickly enough to be thought capable of handling listed class but proved not yet ready for the task. He has been kept in training with a trainer who is peerless with 4-Y-Os and older horses. With a winter of his growing to maturity, I expect him to take this before ultimately improving this year to be capable of winning higher class races.
Floor Show (8-10 Doncaster) is not the finished article yet which makes his past two wins look better than they read in the form book. On the bare form he should dead-heat with Ricoh (who he beat last time) but I expect him to confirm that form. For a horse likely to continue progressing, he is a huge overnight forecast price (20/1). That could be because there are some big stables involved in the race. Even so, he looks too tempting an each way opportunity to miss
Friday, 15 May 2009
Ask: No Question
The Speed Ratings and the handicaps recovered some form on a non-runner messed Thursday. The combined top three rated speed ratings and handicaps provided 77% winners, a figure comparable to Monday's 78% strike rate and Tuesday's 81% strike rate. Among Thursday's figures were clear top speed rated Mr Flannegan 2nd 25/1 and clear 2nd top speed rated Prescelli Won 20/1.
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There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday, with six being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse; two were won by the by the 2nd top rated -one of them joint; and two races were unsuccessful.
York's final day of the May meeting looks only slightly less tough then the previous two days. Misheer (1-40) looks to be better class than previous winners of the race and that alone makes her a stand out on the card. Diamond Laura, Leleyf and Mrs Boss should fight out the places - but keep a market check on Eternal Instinct.
Ask (2-40 Yorkshire Cup) always performs best first time out, so maybe the hint should be taken.
Elsewhere on a day of competitive handicaps, Swiss Diva (3-00 Newmarket ) and Cape Express (8-35 Hamilton) should pay to follow.
And the well bred Sana Abel should lose her maiden tag in Newcastle's 6-45.
Had a very busy day, so I'll leave it there to get some shut-eye. Have a profitable Friday.
You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. The addition of the speed ratings means that there has never been a better time to subscribe.
If you want to sample the winners, you can view our two main services (Handicap with Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday, with six being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse; two were won by the by the 2nd top rated -one of them joint; and two races were unsuccessful.
York's final day of the May meeting looks only slightly less tough then the previous two days. Misheer (1-40) looks to be better class than previous winners of the race and that alone makes her a stand out on the card. Diamond Laura, Leleyf and Mrs Boss should fight out the places - but keep a market check on Eternal Instinct.
Ask (2-40 Yorkshire Cup) always performs best first time out, so maybe the hint should be taken.
Elsewhere on a day of competitive handicaps, Swiss Diva (3-00 Newmarket ) and Cape Express (8-35 Hamilton) should pay to follow.
And the well bred Sana Abel should lose her maiden tag in Newcastle's 6-45.
Had a very busy day, so I'll leave it there to get some shut-eye. Have a profitable Friday.
Thursday, 14 May 2009
Hamish Again
The Speed Ratings and the handicaps dipped below form, Wednesday. The combined top three rated speed ratings and handicaps provided just 65% winners compared to Monday's 78% strike rate and Tuesday's 81% strike rate. But among Wednesday's figures were three excellent Speed Rating winners: Clear top rated Barwell Bridge won at 12/1 while two clear 2nd top rated winners were The Ginger Man won 33/1 and Tavalu won 16/1.
The top two rated winners from each service provided just below 50% winners. And the top three strike rate was 47% (speed ratings) and 62% (handicap ratings).
You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. The addition of the speed ratings means that there has never been a better time to subscribe.
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There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, with seven being successful, Wednesday. One was won by the clear top rated horse; six were won by the by the 2nd top rated - three of them joint; and one race was unsuccessful.
Yesterday's each way punt, Barwell Bridge showed all the qualities he had shown before and battled on late to get up close home to win at 12/1. He was all out at the end but his courage should bring him more success during this season.
Photographic got into a battle as well, but the effort told in the closing stages and she just hung on to share second on the line. She is not done with yet as the experience will not be lost on her. I have to say, though, that I think all the first three home look very good horses and should continue to do well all season long.
Thursday at York looks just as tricky as Wednesday.
I'll be watching to see if Native Ruler (2-40 Dante Stakes) has made any significant improvement since breaking his maiden. And he has got to have significantly improved to live with this field. I trust Henry Cecil's judgement and if he gets within three or four lengths of the winner (probably Crowded House) then I would not lose faith in his Derby chances. I will be looking for an each way price tomorrow, just in case.
In the opening sprint (1-40) there is the proverbial gnats jewel between Hamish McGonagall an Cheveton on all known form. But the seasonal debut of Hamish (2 lengths behind Cheveton) was packed full of promise and I take him to win at York in May for a second successive year. He looked good when beating Lesson In Humilty at this meeting last year and I can't help feeling that he's been aimed specifically at this race and as such I think this is the time to get on him. He has the form and the speed figures to run a very big race.
Have a good Thursday.
The top two rated winners from each service provided just below 50% winners. And the top three strike rate was 47% (speed ratings) and 62% (handicap ratings).
You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. The addition of the speed ratings means that there has never been a better time to subscribe.
If you want to sample the winners, you can view our two main services (Handicap with Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, with seven being successful, Wednesday. One was won by the clear top rated horse; six were won by the by the 2nd top rated - three of them joint; and one race was unsuccessful.
Yesterday's each way punt, Barwell Bridge showed all the qualities he had shown before and battled on late to get up close home to win at 12/1. He was all out at the end but his courage should bring him more success during this season.
Photographic got into a battle as well, but the effort told in the closing stages and she just hung on to share second on the line. She is not done with yet as the experience will not be lost on her. I have to say, though, that I think all the first three home look very good horses and should continue to do well all season long.
Thursday at York looks just as tricky as Wednesday.
I'll be watching to see if Native Ruler (2-40 Dante Stakes) has made any significant improvement since breaking his maiden. And he has got to have significantly improved to live with this field. I trust Henry Cecil's judgement and if he gets within three or four lengths of the winner (probably Crowded House) then I would not lose faith in his Derby chances. I will be looking for an each way price tomorrow, just in case.
In the opening sprint (1-40) there is the proverbial gnats jewel between Hamish McGonagall an Cheveton on all known form. But the seasonal debut of Hamish (2 lengths behind Cheveton) was packed full of promise and I take him to win at York in May for a second successive year. He looked good when beating Lesson In Humilty at this meeting last year and I can't help feeling that he's been aimed specifically at this race and as such I think this is the time to get on him. He has the form and the speed figures to run a very big race.
Have a good Thursday.
Tuesday, 12 May 2009
Bridge Over York
The Speed Ratings are continuing to be a very useful addition to our handicaps. Tuesday's combined top three rated speed ratings and handicaps followed Monday's 78% strike rate with an even better 81% strike rate.
The top two rated of each service on Tuesday gave 59% winners (handicaps) and 56% winners (speed ratings)
You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. The addition of the speed ratings means that there has never been a better time to subscribe.
If you want to sample the winners, you can view our two main services (Handicap with Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
There were ten (4) and (5) UK graded races, with eight being successful, Tuesday. Four were won by the clear top rated horse, one of which became joint top rated after the overnight top rated was a declared non runner; three were won by the by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint. Two races were unsuccessful.
Todber was declared a non runner after her trainer decided the track was too firm for her. I have to say that when Brighton becomes very firm it looks a very dangerous course to ride with the undulations and the banking.
York's Dante meeting begins with four hugely competitive handicaps, a tricky 2-Y-O race, a big field of good and potentially good sprinters and a wide open looking Musidora Stakes. It is not a card for the faint-hearted.
Photographic (2-10) is choicely bred and looks certain to make listed grade very soon. But first she can pick up this handicap before stepping up the ladder. She won very cosily last time on her handicap debut over Newmarket's mile, but her breeding suggests she can be just as effective over 7f.
At current overnight prices Barwell Bridge (4-55) looks a viable each way shot and shouldn't be that far from the front when the race ends. He has a better chance than first glance would indicate. He's been improving almost every run and he never gives up - which is a plus in a field of this class.
Have a good day.
The top two rated of each service on Tuesday gave 59% winners (handicaps) and 56% winners (speed ratings)
You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. The addition of the speed ratings means that there has never been a better time to subscribe.
If you want to sample the winners, you can view our two main services (Handicap with Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
There were ten (4) and (5) UK graded races, with eight being successful, Tuesday. Four were won by the clear top rated horse, one of which became joint top rated after the overnight top rated was a declared non runner; three were won by the by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint. Two races were unsuccessful.
Todber was declared a non runner after her trainer decided the track was too firm for her. I have to say that when Brighton becomes very firm it looks a very dangerous course to ride with the undulations and the banking.
York's Dante meeting begins with four hugely competitive handicaps, a tricky 2-Y-O race, a big field of good and potentially good sprinters and a wide open looking Musidora Stakes. It is not a card for the faint-hearted.
Photographic (2-10) is choicely bred and looks certain to make listed grade very soon. But first she can pick up this handicap before stepping up the ladder. She won very cosily last time on her handicap debut over Newmarket's mile, but her breeding suggests she can be just as effective over 7f.
At current overnight prices Barwell Bridge (4-55) looks a viable each way shot and shouldn't be that far from the front when the race ends. He has a better chance than first glance would indicate. He's been improving almost every run and he never gives up - which is a plus in a field of this class.
Have a good day.
Monday, 11 May 2009
Speedy Handicaps
The Speed Ratings are a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Today, Monday May 11, both the handicaps and the speed ratings each provided ten top rated winners and seven 2nd top rated winners (53% top two). The handicap ratings provided a 62.5% top three strike rate, the speed ratings a 72% top three strike rate and a combined strike rate of 78%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
If you want to sample the winners, you can view our two main services (Handicap and Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
All seven (4) and (5) UK graded races were successful, Monday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, four by the 2nd top rated - three of them joint.
Brighton is not my favourite track but Todber on Monday (2-40) looks a likely winner. She's limited in ability and very low in the Tregoning hierarchy, but she's lightly raced and capable of more improvement this year. Her seasonal debut augured well for a successful season in the lower grade sprints.
Have a good day.
If you want to sample the winners, you can view our two main services (Handicap and Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
All seven (4) and (5) UK graded races were successful, Monday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, four by the 2nd top rated - three of them joint.
Brighton is not my favourite track but Todber on Monday (2-40) looks a likely winner. She's limited in ability and very low in the Tregoning hierarchy, but she's lightly raced and capable of more improvement this year. Her seasonal debut augured well for a successful season in the lower grade sprints.
Have a good day.
Sunday, 10 May 2009
Open Monday
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The Speed Ratings are a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65% (on Saturday the combined top three strike rate was 76%). You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
There were five (4) and (5) UK graded races, Sunday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, the other two races were unsuccessful.
Monday looks open, betting-wise. Farmer Giles (2-20 Redcar) showed his debut run to be a blip when running much better last time and connections will be hoping the improvement continues. There are a couple of interesting newcomers (Makbullet and Avonrose) but his race experience should help him overcome them.
Postman (4-50 Redcar) has risen sharply in the weights following two very impressive wins. It will be a new test on firm ground, but he may not have finished improving and could very well eke out one more win out before the handicapper finally prevents him winning any more.
Falcativ (5-00 Yarmouth) will be odds on to win a tight looking race. And Ithbaat (3-30 Yarmouth) will not get an easier opportunity to win - probably at long odds on.
Roar of Applause makes another quick appearance in Windsor's 8-20, but I will be holding a watching brief until I see him continue the progression he showed previously. This race may also come too soon, though his trainer is obviously happy with him.
Baron Breeze (6-00 Towcester) comes out well on top on the ratings and can beat a couple of disappointing sorts and one improving young hurdler (Upham Atom). And Back Nine (6-30 Towcester) and Noticeable (7-00 Towcester) look likely to be hard to beat.
Have a good Monday
The Speed Ratings are a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65% (on Saturday the combined top three strike rate was 76%). You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
There were five (4) and (5) UK graded races, Sunday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, the other two races were unsuccessful.
Monday looks open, betting-wise. Farmer Giles (2-20 Redcar) showed his debut run to be a blip when running much better last time and connections will be hoping the improvement continues. There are a couple of interesting newcomers (Makbullet and Avonrose) but his race experience should help him overcome them.
Postman (4-50 Redcar) has risen sharply in the weights following two very impressive wins. It will be a new test on firm ground, but he may not have finished improving and could very well eke out one more win out before the handicapper finally prevents him winning any more.
Falcativ (5-00 Yarmouth) will be odds on to win a tight looking race. And Ithbaat (3-30 Yarmouth) will not get an easier opportunity to win - probably at long odds on.
Roar of Applause makes another quick appearance in Windsor's 8-20, but I will be holding a watching brief until I see him continue the progression he showed previously. This race may also come too soon, though his trainer is obviously happy with him.
Baron Breeze (6-00 Towcester) comes out well on top on the ratings and can beat a couple of disappointing sorts and one improving young hurdler (Upham Atom). And Back Nine (6-30 Towcester) and Noticeable (7-00 Towcester) look likely to be hard to beat.
Have a good Monday
Saturday, 9 May 2009
French Fantasia
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The Speed Ratings are a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65% (on Saturday the combined top three strike rate was 76%). You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
The (4) and (5) races were 100% successful, Saturday. There were nine such races, four were won by the clear top rated horse and five by the 2nd top rated, two of which were joints.
An excellent day.
Bouvardia won as I expected but the price was a bit short. I was waiting for opposition to her in the market but it never came.
Roar of Applause ran as though the race came too soon after his good win earlier in the week. I would tend to disregard this run when reading the form of his next race. Some horses thrive when running quickly: many don't. Roar of Applause was one who apparently didn't.
Toshi looked good for a long way but when the race began to heat up, he had no answers and quickly faded. At first review, it seems he just doesn't have the class to hold his own in such competitive company. There are a lot of horses that run excellent races on the minor tracks only to come up short when faced with hotter company. It's all to do with cruising speed. In better class races they usually cruise a heartbeat faster than normal races and it is this that caught Toshi out, as it has caught countless other horses out. The problem is you can't spot these horses until they face that hotter company. Toshi will be back winning when the fields and class of horse he faces are lower than today.
Most of the races on Sunday look wide open and I will be finalising all my bets as they happen. The focus is, of course, the French 1000 and 2000 Guineas. Naaqoos will be looking to recover his reputation in the 2000 but he has to cope with some useful rivals in Vocalised and Westphalia. He looked a bit rusty when beaten by Le Havre last time and I fully expect him to reverse those placings. He would be my pick.
I look no further than Fantasia in the 1000. She looks to be the best around at the moment and could be the best seen for years. She has everything going for her and should win . Elusive Wave and Proportional are the obvious dangers.
Have a restful Sunday
The Speed Ratings are a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65% (on Saturday the combined top three strike rate was 76%). You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
The (4) and (5) races were 100% successful, Saturday. There were nine such races, four were won by the clear top rated horse and five by the 2nd top rated, two of which were joints.
An excellent day.
Bouvardia won as I expected but the price was a bit short. I was waiting for opposition to her in the market but it never came.
Roar of Applause ran as though the race came too soon after his good win earlier in the week. I would tend to disregard this run when reading the form of his next race. Some horses thrive when running quickly: many don't. Roar of Applause was one who apparently didn't.
Toshi looked good for a long way but when the race began to heat up, he had no answers and quickly faded. At first review, it seems he just doesn't have the class to hold his own in such competitive company. There are a lot of horses that run excellent races on the minor tracks only to come up short when faced with hotter company. It's all to do with cruising speed. In better class races they usually cruise a heartbeat faster than normal races and it is this that caught Toshi out, as it has caught countless other horses out. The problem is you can't spot these horses until they face that hotter company. Toshi will be back winning when the fields and class of horse he faces are lower than today.
Most of the races on Sunday look wide open and I will be finalising all my bets as they happen. The focus is, of course, the French 1000 and 2000 Guineas. Naaqoos will be looking to recover his reputation in the 2000 but he has to cope with some useful rivals in Vocalised and Westphalia. He looked a bit rusty when beaten by Le Havre last time and I fully expect him to reverse those placings. He would be my pick.
I look no further than Fantasia in the 1000. She looks to be the best around at the moment and could be the best seen for years. She has everything going for her and should win . Elusive Wave and Proportional are the obvious dangers.
Have a restful Sunday
Friday, 8 May 2009
Saturday Gold-ie
You can view our speed ratings free until May 11 HERE or you can view our two main services (Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE
There were nine (4) and (5) graded races, Friday, with seven being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and three by the clear 2nd top rated. Two races were unsuccessful.
Mister Hardy ran exactly how I predicted, Friday, swooping late and running clear. It was enjoyable to watch.
I always say people should restrict their betting on Saturday's such is the competitiveness of most of the races. This Saturday is the same.
There are a number of tempting horses but the one I like is the one I flagged up last time she ran: Bouvardia (2-55 Nottingham). She ran second to Thursday's disappointment, Aakef last time over 5f and her strong finish suggested she would be a likely winner next time she ran over 6f. There are a couple of big dangers in All About You and Servoca, but I think she can hold them off in a driving finish - probably in that order. Her run will be a big hint into Mazzola's chance in the last at Haydock (5-25) who ran just behind her last time and who is also returning to a more suitable trip. Watch the market on that one.
Elsewhere, the Classic trials are run at Lingfield. The Oaks trial is very open and the Derby trial is a very poor turn out, so I'll be side-stepping those. I'll be watching, though, to see if Father Time can give Henry Cecil any encouragement to run Native Ruler in next week's Dante.
Roar Of Applause (4-35 Nottingham) comfortably won a fair handicap at Chepstow on Tuesday and looks primed to win under his penalty. He looks to be progressing very quickly.
For those who like an each way punt on Saturday's you could do far worse than Toshi (1-55 Haydock). This is his time of year and he looks to have improved recently, having easily won a Class 3 handicap last time out. He's gone up 12lbs since but he's a relative novice compared to some in the field and as such he is still capable of improvement. Scottish trainer, Jim Goldie, does well with his hurdlers and he rarely teams up with Mark Bradburne. But when he does, you know the horse is expected to run well. At an overnight forecast of 20/1, he is too tempting to miss.
Whatever their fate, I will enjoy the racing while watching Sky Sports Saturday as the Premiership relegation fight hots up. West Brom, Middlesborough and Hull are my relegation three to the field.
Have a good day.
There were nine (4) and (5) graded races, Friday, with seven being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and three by the clear 2nd top rated. Two races were unsuccessful.
Mister Hardy ran exactly how I predicted, Friday, swooping late and running clear. It was enjoyable to watch.
I always say people should restrict their betting on Saturday's such is the competitiveness of most of the races. This Saturday is the same.
There are a number of tempting horses but the one I like is the one I flagged up last time she ran: Bouvardia (2-55 Nottingham). She ran second to Thursday's disappointment, Aakef last time over 5f and her strong finish suggested she would be a likely winner next time she ran over 6f. There are a couple of big dangers in All About You and Servoca, but I think she can hold them off in a driving finish - probably in that order. Her run will be a big hint into Mazzola's chance in the last at Haydock (5-25) who ran just behind her last time and who is also returning to a more suitable trip. Watch the market on that one.
Elsewhere, the Classic trials are run at Lingfield. The Oaks trial is very open and the Derby trial is a very poor turn out, so I'll be side-stepping those. I'll be watching, though, to see if Father Time can give Henry Cecil any encouragement to run Native Ruler in next week's Dante.
Roar Of Applause (4-35 Nottingham) comfortably won a fair handicap at Chepstow on Tuesday and looks primed to win under his penalty. He looks to be progressing very quickly.
For those who like an each way punt on Saturday's you could do far worse than Toshi (1-55 Haydock). This is his time of year and he looks to have improved recently, having easily won a Class 3 handicap last time out. He's gone up 12lbs since but he's a relative novice compared to some in the field and as such he is still capable of improvement. Scottish trainer, Jim Goldie, does well with his hurdlers and he rarely teams up with Mark Bradburne. But when he does, you know the horse is expected to run well. At an overnight forecast of 20/1, he is too tempting to miss.
Whatever their fate, I will enjoy the racing while watching Sky Sports Saturday as the Premiership relegation fight hots up. West Brom, Middlesborough and Hull are my relegation three to the field.
Have a good day.
Thursday, 7 May 2009
Kismet, Hardy
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There were eleven (4) and (5) graded races, Thursday, with seven being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and three by the 2nd top rated -one of them joint 2nd top. Four races were unsuccessful.
Aakef never got into the race, Thursday, but was noticeably running on once in the straight. It could have been the course, the draw or, hopefully not, he is becoming a bit quirky if things don't go right for him. I will be watching rather than betting next time he runs just to make things clearer.
The final day of Chester begins with a competitive looking handicap with over half the field capable of winning. But I'm sticking with Mister Hardy to complete the hat-trick. Some have questioned if he is able to withstand the rise in weights because he had to work hard for his win last time at Newcastle. But the rising finish on that course is notoriously testing. It is a testament to his liking for that course (three wins) that he was able to battle his way to the win. I think Chester is much better suited to his cruising speed and strong finish. He has the ideal hold up draw and he seems destined to swoop late. Flawed Genius is a dangerous opponent.
Have an enjoyable Friday.
There were eleven (4) and (5) graded races, Thursday, with seven being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and three by the 2nd top rated -one of them joint 2nd top. Four races were unsuccessful.
Aakef never got into the race, Thursday, but was noticeably running on once in the straight. It could have been the course, the draw or, hopefully not, he is becoming a bit quirky if things don't go right for him. I will be watching rather than betting next time he runs just to make things clearer.
The final day of Chester begins with a competitive looking handicap with over half the field capable of winning. But I'm sticking with Mister Hardy to complete the hat-trick. Some have questioned if he is able to withstand the rise in weights because he had to work hard for his win last time at Newcastle. But the rising finish on that course is notoriously testing. It is a testament to his liking for that course (three wins) that he was able to battle his way to the win. I think Chester is much better suited to his cruising speed and strong finish. He has the ideal hold up draw and he seems destined to swoop late. Flawed Genius is a dangerous opponent.
Have an enjoyable Friday.
Wednesday, 6 May 2009
No Gerbil Day
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There were eight (4) and (5) graded races, Wednesday, with five being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and one by the joint 2nd top rated. Three races were unsuccessful.
The sprint handicap at Chester went as I predicted. Strike Up The Band tried to make all but was overtaken close home by Sohraab. So I won't be betting on which box the gerbil enters....
The Chester Vase on Thursday (2-45) hasn't been the Derby trial it used to be in past years and I don't expect tomorrow's winner to improve its recent poor record of providing a realistic Derby hopeful. Instead I'll be looking to Aakef to continue his upward climb in the 4-35 sprint. Both he and Lucky Numbers have the prime draws of 1 and 2. But neither is a renowned front runner and they might not have a trouble free passage if they don't break prominently. That said, it is hard to look beyond the pair with Aakef being my pick as he has always promised to be a better sprinter than handicap class. I think he has a lot of improvement in him and as such his mark of 86 looks very lenient. I expect him to progress to higher ranks than this.
Have a good Thursday
There were eight (4) and (5) graded races, Wednesday, with five being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and one by the joint 2nd top rated. Three races were unsuccessful.
The sprint handicap at Chester went as I predicted. Strike Up The Band tried to make all but was overtaken close home by Sohraab. So I won't be betting on which box the gerbil enters....
The Chester Vase on Thursday (2-45) hasn't been the Derby trial it used to be in past years and I don't expect tomorrow's winner to improve its recent poor record of providing a realistic Derby hopeful. Instead I'll be looking to Aakef to continue his upward climb in the 4-35 sprint. Both he and Lucky Numbers have the prime draws of 1 and 2. But neither is a renowned front runner and they might not have a trouble free passage if they don't break prominently. That said, it is hard to look beyond the pair with Aakef being my pick as he has always promised to be a better sprinter than handicap class. I think he has a lot of improvement in him and as such his mark of 86 looks very lenient. I expect him to progress to higher ranks than this.
Have a good Thursday
Strike the Roulette So....
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There were eight (4) and (5) graded races, Tuesday, five of them being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated and one by the joint 2nd top rated. Three races were unsuccessful.
Lady Brora couldn't quite get to grips with the Southwell surface and, though she was staying on in the closing stages, she was never going to win.
I received this email yesterday:
Anyone with that lack of english grammar is not going to get my attention. And no-one who states those three capitalised words is going to convince me to call him at £1.50 a minute. He's a total amateur who thinks he can make a few shillings simply by saying those magical words. Punters who use the internet regularly will never be tricked by such flannel. What the idiot fails to realise is that only charlatans state those four words in such a way. If you've had the same or similar emails, ask for a no obligation trial. But ask your friends to do the same - preferaby your facebook or such-like friends from around the country and see how many different horses in the same races he sends out al-a Derren Brown. The "Hi its the PROFESSIONAL" guy will soon be rumbled.
He's probably of the same mind as the person I once knew who said it was easy to become a "Newmarket Mole". All you had to do was say you had links with Newmarket trainers, or owners, or stable insiders, and just pick out only Newmarket horses to tip to the unwary. He thought it was a sure thing until he noticed no-one was answering his emails. It might be the same guy. I don't know. But people like him cause genuine services (and there are lots) to be tarred with the same brush (how's that for a cliche?).
Don't be taken in - especially when the emailer or letter writer capitalises the duff words above.
The 3-15 sprint at Chester has an appropriate race title but I'm putting my hard earned on box numbers 4 and 1 and I'll take that price on either of them. They are Sohraab and Strike Up The Band. Sohraab seemed to lose the plot halfway through last season but should be able to hold his own in this field after his fine 2nd to the ill-fated Chief Editor. And Strike Up The Band likes to blast away in front. He needs a very good break to get in front unhindered from stall 1 but if he does, he should either win or set the finish up for Sohraab. If I get this wrong then I'll have another go at predicting which box the gerbil enters on Sky channel eight-hundred-and-something-or other....
Have a good Wednesday.
There were eight (4) and (5) graded races, Tuesday, five of them being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated and one by the joint 2nd top rated. Three races were unsuccessful.
Lady Brora couldn't quite get to grips with the Southwell surface and, though she was staying on in the closing stages, she was never going to win.
I received this email yesterday:
Hi its THE PROFESSIONAL here did you get on today's gamble. If you didn't whatever you do don't miss tomorrows MAXIMUM GAMBLE this will bolt up at a nice price its from one of my top contacts in newmarket and he says he's having his biggest bet of the season and that there are NO DANGERS. To obtain this information ring now on:
Anyone with that lack of english grammar is not going to get my attention. And no-one who states those three capitalised words is going to convince me to call him at £1.50 a minute. He's a total amateur who thinks he can make a few shillings simply by saying those magical words. Punters who use the internet regularly will never be tricked by such flannel. What the idiot fails to realise is that only charlatans state those four words in such a way. If you've had the same or similar emails, ask for a no obligation trial. But ask your friends to do the same - preferaby your facebook or such-like friends from around the country and see how many different horses in the same races he sends out al-a Derren Brown. The "Hi its the PROFESSIONAL" guy will soon be rumbled.
He's probably of the same mind as the person I once knew who said it was easy to become a "Newmarket Mole". All you had to do was say you had links with Newmarket trainers, or owners, or stable insiders, and just pick out only Newmarket horses to tip to the unwary. He thought it was a sure thing until he noticed no-one was answering his emails. It might be the same guy. I don't know. But people like him cause genuine services (and there are lots) to be tarred with the same brush (how's that for a cliche?).
Don't be taken in - especially when the emailer or letter writer capitalises the duff words above.
The 3-15 sprint at Chester has an appropriate race title but I'm putting my hard earned on box numbers 4 and 1 and I'll take that price on either of them. They are Sohraab and Strike Up The Band. Sohraab seemed to lose the plot halfway through last season but should be able to hold his own in this field after his fine 2nd to the ill-fated Chief Editor. And Strike Up The Band likes to blast away in front. He needs a very good break to get in front unhindered from stall 1 but if he does, he should either win or set the finish up for Sohraab. If I get this wrong then I'll have another go at predicting which box the gerbil enters on Sky channel eight-hundred-and-something-or other....
Have a good Wednesday.
Monday, 4 May 2009
Faith in the Lady
Our new Speed Ratings were on fire, Monday, giving 22 top 2 winners and producing a 68% top 3 win strike rate. The handicap ratings did equally well and combined the top 3 rated from each gave 76% winners. You can view the Speed Ratings for free until May 11 HERE. Or you can view our two main services (Ratings and Select) free for seven days simply by registering HERE.
There were only four (4) and (5) grade races in the UK, Monday, with two being successful and two unsuccessful. The clear top and clear 2nd top rated won the two successful races.
The exchanges are a very good thing for punters and they can tell huge stories about a horse's chance. Some drifters actually win and make a mockery of the belief that they are destined to lose because the exchanges are laying them. That's fine, but what really sticks in my craw are those drifters that run poorly. There is absolutely nothing sinister about 99% of exchange drifters, but many horses that are well fancied overnight, drift on the day for no apparent form reason, then run badly. Such a case was Just Timmy Marcus. On all known form (even accounting for it being his first run on turf) he had a major chance. But he drifted all morning, opened at 15/2 on the course then drifted even more to 10/1. The signs were not good. But what came next really shouldn't be allowed. The horse began slowly (tactic?) and never showed any enthusiasm in the race. If he'd run fairly well until the closing stages and then got beaten a fair way, it would be acceptable. But the fact that Just Timmy Marcus ran so absurdly badly means that someone, somewhere, knew the horse wasn't right. And if that was the case, he should not have been allowed to run. I'm definitely not saying the race was a "Hillside Girl" scenario but it absolutely shows that punters are deigned an irrelevance.
But we move on....
Taarab drifted enough (in an un-sinister way) for me to plunge on African Cheetah. He won very easily. I don't think he made that much improvement (as the Racing Post analyst seemed to intimate). If you read this post, you'll know that the horse is progressing along normal Johnston lines. I actually think that Taarab ran a race that told he hasn't improved a lot over the winter.
There seem to be a few short priced possibilities, Tuesday, but I will place my faith in Lady Brora in Southwell's 3-30. She was quietly backed on her seasonal debut and looked for all the world as if the run would greatly improve her fitness. She looks good.
Have a good Tuesday.
There were only four (4) and (5) grade races in the UK, Monday, with two being successful and two unsuccessful. The clear top and clear 2nd top rated won the two successful races.
The exchanges are a very good thing for punters and they can tell huge stories about a horse's chance. Some drifters actually win and make a mockery of the belief that they are destined to lose because the exchanges are laying them. That's fine, but what really sticks in my craw are those drifters that run poorly. There is absolutely nothing sinister about 99% of exchange drifters, but many horses that are well fancied overnight, drift on the day for no apparent form reason, then run badly. Such a case was Just Timmy Marcus. On all known form (even accounting for it being his first run on turf) he had a major chance. But he drifted all morning, opened at 15/2 on the course then drifted even more to 10/1. The signs were not good. But what came next really shouldn't be allowed. The horse began slowly (tactic?) and never showed any enthusiasm in the race. If he'd run fairly well until the closing stages and then got beaten a fair way, it would be acceptable. But the fact that Just Timmy Marcus ran so absurdly badly means that someone, somewhere, knew the horse wasn't right. And if that was the case, he should not have been allowed to run. I'm definitely not saying the race was a "Hillside Girl" scenario but it absolutely shows that punters are deigned an irrelevance.
But we move on....
Taarab drifted enough (in an un-sinister way) for me to plunge on African Cheetah. He won very easily. I don't think he made that much improvement (as the Racing Post analyst seemed to intimate). If you read this post, you'll know that the horse is progressing along normal Johnston lines. I actually think that Taarab ran a race that told he hasn't improved a lot over the winter.
There seem to be a few short priced possibilities, Tuesday, but I will place my faith in Lady Brora in Southwell's 3-30. She was quietly backed on her seasonal debut and looked for all the world as if the run would greatly improve her fitness. She looks good.
Have a good Tuesday.
Sunday, 3 May 2009
Timmy's on a Just Mark
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There were five (4) and (5) graded races, Sunday, four of them being successful. Three were won by the clear top rated, one by the joint 2nd top rated, and one was unsuccessful.
Rainbow View pleased the cynics but all she showed me was the fact she hated the firm ground. She's trained on well and is not done with yet. On more suitable ground, I am sure she will produce.
Bank Holiday Monday's are not what they used to be. Low grade racing has become the order of Bank Holiday days. It seems the race planners are not enamoured with May Day. The racing bigwigs are mainly from the aristocratic class - or from Oxbridge. I wonder if they assume May Day is communistic. They used to hate it in medieval times when ordinary folks used to celebrate it every year regardless of their masters. Horse racing enthusiasts want to celebrate May Day with quality racing, not with the run-of-the-mill offerings we have had the past few years. Racing is quick to put on pop concerts to encourage the youth to go racing more. What about the old stagers like me. Shouldn't they also - and, arguably, more importantly so - encourage people like me to go racing more by offering quality racing during Bank Holidays?
Anyway....
I was a little surprised to see African Cheetah (4-45 Newcastle) still in maiden company. I thought a mark in the mid-70s was a winnable mark - and the handicapper gave him just that at 76. Maybe Mark Johnston feels he needs more experience before going handicapping. That is encouraging if it is the case because he obviously thinks the horse will repay his bringing him along more slowly than some trainers would. Unfortunately, he meets a very promising horse in Taarab, Monday. Taarab ran second in an average maiden at Yarmouth on the soft late last year but looked as though a winter's growth would do him good. He still has a Derby entry so he will have to win well to justify that. But it is his seasonal debut against the progressive African Cheetah. It will be a fascinating race. If Taarab begins to drift a fair bit, I will bet African Cheetah. If not, I will watch the race for fun.
I can't help feeling that Just Timmy Marcus (3-15 Newcastle) would have been given a harsher ten to fifteen pound handicap mark had his two wins been under trainers like Gosden, Jarvis, Noseda, or Cecil. He did remarkably well to win last time after clipping heels and looking as if his race was over. The way he knuckled down was impressive for the grade. Had he enjoyed a trouble free run he would have won much more easily and would now probably have a mark in the 70s.
The horse he beat on his debut run, Trade Center, beat a Johnston horse next time out and was given a mark of 77. The four length fifth that day, Circle Dance, won next time out and was given a mark of 64 (one length lower than Timmy). The sixth, Location, ran three furlongs further next time and got beaten easily, but returned to a furlong further than Timmy's race and won. The seventh, Villaruz ran second to Location and eventually won last time out.
Okay, Timmy's form is the dreaded All Weather (though his sires progeny go well on the soft), but with a page of form like he has, he should be rated much higher than he is. I will be disappointed if he is beaten.
Have a good Bank Holiday. If you see someone with egg on their face, it might very well be me....
There were five (4) and (5) graded races, Sunday, four of them being successful. Three were won by the clear top rated, one by the joint 2nd top rated, and one was unsuccessful.
Rainbow View pleased the cynics but all she showed me was the fact she hated the firm ground. She's trained on well and is not done with yet. On more suitable ground, I am sure she will produce.
Bank Holiday Monday's are not what they used to be. Low grade racing has become the order of Bank Holiday days. It seems the race planners are not enamoured with May Day. The racing bigwigs are mainly from the aristocratic class - or from Oxbridge. I wonder if they assume May Day is communistic. They used to hate it in medieval times when ordinary folks used to celebrate it every year regardless of their masters. Horse racing enthusiasts want to celebrate May Day with quality racing, not with the run-of-the-mill offerings we have had the past few years. Racing is quick to put on pop concerts to encourage the youth to go racing more. What about the old stagers like me. Shouldn't they also - and, arguably, more importantly so - encourage people like me to go racing more by offering quality racing during Bank Holidays?
Anyway....
I was a little surprised to see African Cheetah (4-45 Newcastle) still in maiden company. I thought a mark in the mid-70s was a winnable mark - and the handicapper gave him just that at 76. Maybe Mark Johnston feels he needs more experience before going handicapping. That is encouraging if it is the case because he obviously thinks the horse will repay his bringing him along more slowly than some trainers would. Unfortunately, he meets a very promising horse in Taarab, Monday. Taarab ran second in an average maiden at Yarmouth on the soft late last year but looked as though a winter's growth would do him good. He still has a Derby entry so he will have to win well to justify that. But it is his seasonal debut against the progressive African Cheetah. It will be a fascinating race. If Taarab begins to drift a fair bit, I will bet African Cheetah. If not, I will watch the race for fun.
I can't help feeling that Just Timmy Marcus (3-15 Newcastle) would have been given a harsher ten to fifteen pound handicap mark had his two wins been under trainers like Gosden, Jarvis, Noseda, or Cecil. He did remarkably well to win last time after clipping heels and looking as if his race was over. The way he knuckled down was impressive for the grade. Had he enjoyed a trouble free run he would have won much more easily and would now probably have a mark in the 70s.
The horse he beat on his debut run, Trade Center, beat a Johnston horse next time out and was given a mark of 77. The four length fifth that day, Circle Dance, won next time out and was given a mark of 64 (one length lower than Timmy). The sixth, Location, ran three furlongs further next time and got beaten easily, but returned to a furlong further than Timmy's race and won. The seventh, Villaruz ran second to Location and eventually won last time out.
Okay, Timmy's form is the dreaded All Weather (though his sires progeny go well on the soft), but with a page of form like he has, he should be rated much higher than he is. I will be disappointed if he is beaten.
Have a good Bank Holiday. If you see someone with egg on their face, it might very well be me....
Saturday, 2 May 2009
Rainbow to Silence the Cynics
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Saturday's continue to frustrate. There were ten (4) and (5) graded races, Saturday, with five being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and one by the joint 2nd top rated. Five races were unsuccessful.
Delegator met one just that little bit too good and ran a fine race. Finjaan ran like a sprinter. He had a chance 2f out but weakened fairly quickly thereafter. Expect to see him in a 6f race next time.
Webbow ran his heart out and looked like winning at one point. But he was just run out of it in the last half furlong and finished 2nd - which got me a profit at 16/1.
Infiraad will definitely be in a higher grade next time (possibly a good listed event) after he demolished a small but fair field of handicappers.
Babe Heffron looked unlikely to win even though he was unseated early: and Great Approach looked to be struggling when he blundered and ended his race two out. I won't be giving up on him yet, though, while the ground rides fast.
Sunday sees Rainbow View (Newmarket 3-15) put her talent on the line. Some have cribbed her before she's run because, they say, she hasn't grown much. Well, if size matters that much, why is she still hot favourite and why does Jimmy Fortune still believe she will win? I suspect it is the cynical folk that permeate society nowadays and who just love to denegrate winners - whether equine or human. I think jealousy is the motivating factor. As far as I'm concerned, she will win. But if she doesn't I will not for a second consider cribbing her just because she lost. No doubt the cynics will be lining up to crow, "I told you so." I hate cynics. They are the saddest folks walking the planet. Anyone who takes glee in rubbishing any one or any thing, just for the sake of self aggrandizement can take a leap off the highest bridge in their area. If they sell tickets and provide loud hailers, I'll be there to watch and encourage. Promise.
Have an uncynical Sunday.
Saturday's continue to frustrate. There were ten (4) and (5) graded races, Saturday, with five being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and one by the joint 2nd top rated. Five races were unsuccessful.
Delegator met one just that little bit too good and ran a fine race. Finjaan ran like a sprinter. He had a chance 2f out but weakened fairly quickly thereafter. Expect to see him in a 6f race next time.
Webbow ran his heart out and looked like winning at one point. But he was just run out of it in the last half furlong and finished 2nd - which got me a profit at 16/1.
Infiraad will definitely be in a higher grade next time (possibly a good listed event) after he demolished a small but fair field of handicappers.
Babe Heffron looked unlikely to win even though he was unseated early: and Great Approach looked to be struggling when he blundered and ended his race two out. I won't be giving up on him yet, though, while the ground rides fast.
Sunday sees Rainbow View (Newmarket 3-15) put her talent on the line. Some have cribbed her before she's run because, they say, she hasn't grown much. Well, if size matters that much, why is she still hot favourite and why does Jimmy Fortune still believe she will win? I suspect it is the cynical folk that permeate society nowadays and who just love to denegrate winners - whether equine or human. I think jealousy is the motivating factor. As far as I'm concerned, she will win. But if she doesn't I will not for a second consider cribbing her just because she lost. No doubt the cynics will be lining up to crow, "I told you so." I hate cynics. They are the saddest folks walking the planet. Anyone who takes glee in rubbishing any one or any thing, just for the sake of self aggrandizement can take a leap off the highest bridge in their area. If they sell tickets and provide loud hailers, I'll be there to watch and encourage. Promise.
Have an uncynical Sunday.
Friday, 1 May 2009
Take a Bow
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There were seven UK (4) and (5) graded races, Friday, which were all successful. Two were won by the clear top rated and five were won by the joint 2nd top rated.
The graded races did far better than my selections. Considering that Bollin Greta ran an excellent seasonal debut after front running, it was surprising that they decided to hold her up. She didn't look too enamoured with the decision and was very keen early. By the time the race began in earnest, she had used up all her energy fighting her jockey early and was all done in by the end. A curious run, to say the least.
As for Montebria, well, I got that very wrong. By the way she ran and stayed on at the end, it looks as if 1m4f is her trip and not the 10f as I adamantly said yesterday. No-one's perfect. (It is interesting to note that TP Queally was again beaten by a stablemate outsider.)
Saturday is the usual minefield. The 2000 Guineas (3-10 Newmarket) looks as open as it can get. My fancy - and a lot of others fancy - is Delegator. He proved the Newmarket hill poses no problem as he scooted clear when he won the Craven. His trainer is very happy about his chances as he produced another good gallop the other day. As I say, it is an open race but he is as good a pick as any. Lord Shanakill and Finjaan shouldn't be totally discounted. I'll be watching the latter with interest. He looks the type that runs well in the Guineas before returning to win high class sprint races. I'll be watching how much speed he shows early and how he finishes up the hill. If he truly stays one mile, he could run into a place - and if that happens then Lord Shanakill will be close by.
Infiraad (4-20 Newmarket) looked a horse heading for the heights when he beat a good field of maidens at the Craven meeting. He's been given a very reasonable mark and should win here before heading for Haydock later this month.
Before the season began a lot of pundits were tipping Louis-Phillipe Beuzelin to be the 2009 champion apprentice. Unfortunately, he's made a very modest beginning, winning only one race in sixteen rides. It now looks likely that Frederik Tyliki is the one most likely. But Beuzelin is only four behind at this early stage and he could close the gap at Thirsk, Saturday. He's booked for two rides for Nigel Tinkler and the best of them appears to be Webbow (4-15). I liked the way he stuck on to win at Doncaster in August 2007 in a very competitive Class 3 handicap on firm ground. After a quiet 2008 season, he's transferred to the Tinkler stable and seems to have been overlooked for this race. He was consistent last year without winning and has obviously had some training problems. But if he turns up in a semblance of last year's form, he should go very close to winning. I think he will be a very good each way price and as such I can't resist having a little each way on him.
Elsewhere, Babe Heffron (4-30) Uttoxeter seems to have found a good opportunity on the yielding ground he likes. And Great Approach (7-00 Hexham) looks primed to follow up his beating of a progressive sort last time. The five pound rise in weights shouldn't be enough to stop him.
Have a good Saturday.
There were seven UK (4) and (5) graded races, Friday, which were all successful. Two were won by the clear top rated and five were won by the joint 2nd top rated.
The graded races did far better than my selections. Considering that Bollin Greta ran an excellent seasonal debut after front running, it was surprising that they decided to hold her up. She didn't look too enamoured with the decision and was very keen early. By the time the race began in earnest, she had used up all her energy fighting her jockey early and was all done in by the end. A curious run, to say the least.
As for Montebria, well, I got that very wrong. By the way she ran and stayed on at the end, it looks as if 1m4f is her trip and not the 10f as I adamantly said yesterday. No-one's perfect. (It is interesting to note that TP Queally was again beaten by a stablemate outsider.)
Saturday is the usual minefield. The 2000 Guineas (3-10 Newmarket) looks as open as it can get. My fancy - and a lot of others fancy - is Delegator. He proved the Newmarket hill poses no problem as he scooted clear when he won the Craven. His trainer is very happy about his chances as he produced another good gallop the other day. As I say, it is an open race but he is as good a pick as any. Lord Shanakill and Finjaan shouldn't be totally discounted. I'll be watching the latter with interest. He looks the type that runs well in the Guineas before returning to win high class sprint races. I'll be watching how much speed he shows early and how he finishes up the hill. If he truly stays one mile, he could run into a place - and if that happens then Lord Shanakill will be close by.
Infiraad (4-20 Newmarket) looked a horse heading for the heights when he beat a good field of maidens at the Craven meeting. He's been given a very reasonable mark and should win here before heading for Haydock later this month.
Before the season began a lot of pundits were tipping Louis-Phillipe Beuzelin to be the 2009 champion apprentice. Unfortunately, he's made a very modest beginning, winning only one race in sixteen rides. It now looks likely that Frederik Tyliki is the one most likely. But Beuzelin is only four behind at this early stage and he could close the gap at Thirsk, Saturday. He's booked for two rides for Nigel Tinkler and the best of them appears to be Webbow (4-15). I liked the way he stuck on to win at Doncaster in August 2007 in a very competitive Class 3 handicap on firm ground. After a quiet 2008 season, he's transferred to the Tinkler stable and seems to have been overlooked for this race. He was consistent last year without winning and has obviously had some training problems. But if he turns up in a semblance of last year's form, he should go very close to winning. I think he will be a very good each way price and as such I can't resist having a little each way on him.
Elsewhere, Babe Heffron (4-30) Uttoxeter seems to have found a good opportunity on the yielding ground he likes. And Great Approach (7-00 Hexham) looks primed to follow up his beating of a progressive sort last time. The five pound rise in weights shouldn't be enough to stop him.
Have a good Saturday.
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