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There were twelve (4) and (5) graded races, Thursday, with nine of them being successful. Six were won by the clear top rated, three by the 2nd top rated (two of them joint), and three races were unsuccessful.
Rising Kheleyf tried his best but just couldn't muster any extra in the final furlong. The seven pound penalty didn't beat him, he was simply beaten by a better horse on the day.
Friday is nothing special. There are some races to look at with a view to betting, but not many. Bollin Greta (4-40 Musselburgh) ran as if blowing off the cobwebs on her seasonal debut, showing that she was ready for an early season win. She progressed well last backend and looks to have continued that over the winter. She is half sister to numerous sprinters (Bollin Joanne et al) and to one very useful stayer: the 2002 St Leger winner Bollin Eric. Her sire, Mtoto, has blessed her with some staying power and she may even get two miles in time - which will open up a lot of handicap opportunities as she progresses further this summer. Sonny Sam seems the most likely of her rivals, having run a very good debut for the Fahey yard last month. He should win this year - hopefully not tomorrow.
Henry Cecil has a good chance tomorrow. I don't usually get too involved with All Weather racing, but Montebria (5-05 Lingfield) looks to be worth at least a small interest. Her trainer has a reasonable record with 4-Y-Os (though not at Lingfield) and she seems to have been brought steadily along with a third season campaign in mind. Judging from the limited number of runs she has had, 10f seems likely to be her best trip. And as she seems best on good, fast ground, the unusual demands of quirky Lingfield should suit her.
Have a good Friday (now, there's a collection of words that remind me of the first of two holidays I have this year....).
Thursday, 30 April 2009
Wednesday, 29 April 2009
Rising to the Top
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There were six (4) and (5) graded races, Wednesday, five of them being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated, one by the joint 2nd top rated, and one race was unsuccessful.
Red Jazz looked to have a race on his hands entering the final furlong, but he always had Archers Road's measure and won rather more cosily than it seems to the eye. He's an early Royal Ascot fancy.
Another Royal Ascot fancy, Patkai won as he pleased and the early 10/1 for the Gold Cup disappeared quickly. He is now vying with Yeats for favouritism. Thankfully, Ryan Moore was aware of Darryll Holland's tactics and was in the right place all race long. He only had to hand ride the horse to a comfortable victory.
My Derby outsider fancy, Native Ruler, won well. But he again looked very green and once again kept changing his legs. But when asked for ultimate effort, he showed he is a battler. I think he may be too immature currently for him to be a serious Derby horse. He still looks a big baby. Henry Cecil has performed wonders in the past, but to get this horse fully matured by June is surely asking too much of him, despite his undoubted prowess at vastly improving horses. Maybe he will be a late season horse and a top class 4-Y-O instead of a classic 3-Y-O. If he goes to Lingfield for the Derby trial we may know more. In the meantime, I am still on a watching brief.
I have been asked about trainers in form and how much do I follow them when they are highly rated on the TowerForm handicap.
I think there are a lot of misconceptions about trainers being in or out of form. As I say on the website midway down THIS PAGE "Just because a trainer has had two winners in three days doesn't necessarily mean they are in form. Neither does it mean a trainer is out of form just because they haven't had a winner in a fortnight."
The best way to check if a trainer is in or out of form is simply to look at the fourteen day stats on the Racing Post website
Forget all horses that started at 10/1 or higher because they weren't, in the main, expected to win. Instead, look at the horses a trainer has run that started at 5/1 or less. If those runners constantly get beaten easily or mainly run out of the first three, then you can assume the trainer is out of form. But if those horses run within three or four lengths of the winner, or win, or constantly get placed, then that trainer is in form. He is just temporararily out of luck. If you work to these rules instead of looking for all the 1s in the fourteen day list, then you are on track to be viewing the statistics properly.
Also, to the first point I make about a trainer with two winners in three days. If those two winners were 1/2 and 4/6 and his other fancied horses kept getting beaten six lengths or more, then that trainer is out of form. He just happened on two easy races for his charges.
Never assume a trainer's form. Always check the stats in a professional way. Don't glance. Study.
Thursday looks a competitive day. Rising Kheleyf (3-40 Redcar) looks a sporting bet to follow up his Catterick win. He beat two in-form rivals fairly cosily and should maintain the improvement he showed there. Alicante looks a typical Prescott second season handicapper and as such needs to be carefully noted. But she is probably going to be better over a couple of furlongs and more further. Also, being by Pivotal, I have to suspect that the ground will be a little too quick for her. I further suspect that she was entered at Redcar in the hope that the recent rain had eased the ground. Unfortunately, it hasn't as the overnight forecast is Firm. I wouldn't be surprised if she was withdrawn. Anyway, I reckon hat-trick seeking Cornish Castle will be a bigger danger.
Just a small note: the Spotlight writer for this race on the Racing Post website says Alicante is a half sister to the classy Prescott stayers Albanova and Alborada. She isn't. She's out of a different mare entirely. Maybe he meant to say "from the same family as..."
Have a good day.
There were six (4) and (5) graded races, Wednesday, five of them being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated, one by the joint 2nd top rated, and one race was unsuccessful.
Red Jazz looked to have a race on his hands entering the final furlong, but he always had Archers Road's measure and won rather more cosily than it seems to the eye. He's an early Royal Ascot fancy.
Another Royal Ascot fancy, Patkai won as he pleased and the early 10/1 for the Gold Cup disappeared quickly. He is now vying with Yeats for favouritism. Thankfully, Ryan Moore was aware of Darryll Holland's tactics and was in the right place all race long. He only had to hand ride the horse to a comfortable victory.
My Derby outsider fancy, Native Ruler, won well. But he again looked very green and once again kept changing his legs. But when asked for ultimate effort, he showed he is a battler. I think he may be too immature currently for him to be a serious Derby horse. He still looks a big baby. Henry Cecil has performed wonders in the past, but to get this horse fully matured by June is surely asking too much of him, despite his undoubted prowess at vastly improving horses. Maybe he will be a late season horse and a top class 4-Y-O instead of a classic 3-Y-O. If he goes to Lingfield for the Derby trial we may know more. In the meantime, I am still on a watching brief.
I have been asked about trainers in form and how much do I follow them when they are highly rated on the TowerForm handicap.
I think there are a lot of misconceptions about trainers being in or out of form. As I say on the website midway down THIS PAGE "Just because a trainer has had two winners in three days doesn't necessarily mean they are in form. Neither does it mean a trainer is out of form just because they haven't had a winner in a fortnight."
The best way to check if a trainer is in or out of form is simply to look at the fourteen day stats on the Racing Post website
Forget all horses that started at 10/1 or higher because they weren't, in the main, expected to win. Instead, look at the horses a trainer has run that started at 5/1 or less. If those runners constantly get beaten easily or mainly run out of the first three, then you can assume the trainer is out of form. But if those horses run within three or four lengths of the winner, or win, or constantly get placed, then that trainer is in form. He is just temporararily out of luck. If you work to these rules instead of looking for all the 1s in the fourteen day list, then you are on track to be viewing the statistics properly.
Also, to the first point I make about a trainer with two winners in three days. If those two winners were 1/2 and 4/6 and his other fancied horses kept getting beaten six lengths or more, then that trainer is out of form. He just happened on two easy races for his charges.
Never assume a trainer's form. Always check the stats in a professional way. Don't glance. Study.
Thursday looks a competitive day. Rising Kheleyf (3-40 Redcar) looks a sporting bet to follow up his Catterick win. He beat two in-form rivals fairly cosily and should maintain the improvement he showed there. Alicante looks a typical Prescott second season handicapper and as such needs to be carefully noted. But she is probably going to be better over a couple of furlongs and more further. Also, being by Pivotal, I have to suspect that the ground will be a little too quick for her. I further suspect that she was entered at Redcar in the hope that the recent rain had eased the ground. Unfortunately, it hasn't as the overnight forecast is Firm. I wouldn't be surprised if she was withdrawn. Anyway, I reckon hat-trick seeking Cornish Castle will be a bigger danger.
Just a small note: the Spotlight writer for this race on the Racing Post website says Alicante is a half sister to the classy Prescott stayers Albanova and Alborada. She isn't. She's out of a different mare entirely. Maybe he meant to say "from the same family as..."
Have a good day.
Tuesday, 28 April 2009
Ascot Jazz
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The (4) and (5) graded races recovered their form, Tuesday. There were eight successful races from nine. Four were won by the clear top rated and four by the 2nd top rated (three of them joint). One race was unsuccessful.
I should have gone with overall form for the listed race at Bath. Look Busy just poked her nose in front on the line. My selection, Pusey Street Girl, never showed in the front rank. I thought the stiff 5f would suit her, but they were too speedy early on and, though she stayed on fairly well at the end, the trip ultimately proved too sharp. She proved here that 6f is her trip.
The rain came in sufficient quantity to soften the ground for Postmaster who was just as impressive as he was at Southwell. Well backed, he never looked in danger of losing and won very easily. So the mathematicians were right again: two negatives do make a positive after all.
I notice they are claiming bragging rights on the Racing Post, saying you could have got 9/2 when it was tipped up. But you saw it here first - a long night before the Racing Post gave it. And I will only claim an 11/4 winner. All this "best price available" (9/2 in this case) is deceptive codswallop. It was best price for those few who saw it first. Ten minutes after that no-one could have got that price. Though some people will have got 3/1 (or possibly 7/2) at best, most people will have got 11/4. So an 11/4 winner it is. And, let's be honest, it wasn't the hardest favourite winner to find.
Wednesday at Ascot sees probably the best 2-Y-O seen so far and one of the most promising 4-Y-O stayers in training.
Red Jazz (2-10) should further enhance his Royal Ascot prospects. He won so well at Windsor, it is hard to see him being beaten. Walkingonthemoon should follow him home with Planet Red and Archers Road fighting out third.
Patkai (3-55) already has a Royal Ascot win in his cabinet (the Queens Vase) and will be looking to solidify his Gold Cup chances. He is currently 10/1 (Skybet) and will plummet if he wins this well. The flea is Tungsten Strike ridden by Darryll Holland who is probably the best front running jockey around. The horse is becoming a feature of this race having been 2nd when the race was run at Lingfield, winning it two years ago, and being withdrawn because of softening ground last year. He looks to be a realistic danger to Patkai whose only other possible danger is his jockey. If Darryll gets into a rhythm and Ryan Moore decides to hold Patkai a couple of lengths further back than necessary (as is his wont) then Tungsten could pull of a "slight" surprise. I don't bet in running but if I did, I would be close to my computer during the race to see how comfortable Darryll is and where Ryan has decided to hold Patkai.
Derby outsider Native Ruler runs at Pontefract (2-55) and will be long odds on to win. The ease of his win will adjust his ante post price only slightly. But if he wins as cosily as I expect, then he could still be available at 33/1 or so. If he wins pulling a bus I will be straight into my internet account. If he scrambles home or, God forbid, he loses, then the dream will be over.
Have a good Wednesday.
The (4) and (5) graded races recovered their form, Tuesday. There were eight successful races from nine. Four were won by the clear top rated and four by the 2nd top rated (three of them joint). One race was unsuccessful.
I should have gone with overall form for the listed race at Bath. Look Busy just poked her nose in front on the line. My selection, Pusey Street Girl, never showed in the front rank. I thought the stiff 5f would suit her, but they were too speedy early on and, though she stayed on fairly well at the end, the trip ultimately proved too sharp. She proved here that 6f is her trip.
The rain came in sufficient quantity to soften the ground for Postmaster who was just as impressive as he was at Southwell. Well backed, he never looked in danger of losing and won very easily. So the mathematicians were right again: two negatives do make a positive after all.
I notice they are claiming bragging rights on the Racing Post, saying you could have got 9/2 when it was tipped up. But you saw it here first - a long night before the Racing Post gave it. And I will only claim an 11/4 winner. All this "best price available" (9/2 in this case) is deceptive codswallop. It was best price for those few who saw it first. Ten minutes after that no-one could have got that price. Though some people will have got 3/1 (or possibly 7/2) at best, most people will have got 11/4. So an 11/4 winner it is. And, let's be honest, it wasn't the hardest favourite winner to find.
Wednesday at Ascot sees probably the best 2-Y-O seen so far and one of the most promising 4-Y-O stayers in training.
Red Jazz (2-10) should further enhance his Royal Ascot prospects. He won so well at Windsor, it is hard to see him being beaten. Walkingonthemoon should follow him home with Planet Red and Archers Road fighting out third.
Patkai (3-55) already has a Royal Ascot win in his cabinet (the Queens Vase) and will be looking to solidify his Gold Cup chances. He is currently 10/1 (Skybet) and will plummet if he wins this well. The flea is Tungsten Strike ridden by Darryll Holland who is probably the best front running jockey around. The horse is becoming a feature of this race having been 2nd when the race was run at Lingfield, winning it two years ago, and being withdrawn because of softening ground last year. He looks to be a realistic danger to Patkai whose only other possible danger is his jockey. If Darryll gets into a rhythm and Ryan Moore decides to hold Patkai a couple of lengths further back than necessary (as is his wont) then Tungsten could pull of a "slight" surprise. I don't bet in running but if I did, I would be close to my computer during the race to see how comfortable Darryll is and where Ryan has decided to hold Patkai.
Derby outsider Native Ruler runs at Pontefract (2-55) and will be long odds on to win. The ease of his win will adjust his ante post price only slightly. But if he wins as cosily as I expect, then he could still be available at 33/1 or so. If he wins pulling a bus I will be straight into my internet account. If he scrambles home or, God forbid, he loses, then the dream will be over.
Have a good Wednesday.
Monday, 27 April 2009
Two Negatives Make a Positive.
Our new Speed Ratings produced a stunning 40/1 clear top rated winner, Monday, in Run For Ede's. You can view them for free HERE
The (4) and (5) graded races went the opposite way and dropped below a 50% win ratio. There were ten such races. One was won by the clear top rated, three by the 2nd top rated (two of them joint) and six races were unsuccessful. A bad day.
Barney McGrew was disappointingly withdrawn from his race. And I was all excited and tingly about his prospects....
There's an interesting race to watch at Bath. The listed sprint (5-05) is chock full of good sprinters on their day. The best of them, I think anyway, are Look Busy, Pusey Street Lady and Starlit Sands. On early season form I would side with Pusey Street Lady. On overall form it would be Look Busy. On promise of better things to come it would be Starlit Sands. But the fact that Pusey Street Lady will have the race run to her liking and is proven race fit, she has to be my pick. Plus any rainfall won't affect her at all since she runs well on all types of ground and should find the stiff 5f serving her well in the closing stages.
It is not usually wise to take All Weather form seriously when reading form for turf races. But Postmaster won so well at Southwell in his debut handicap that I cannot overlook him in Nottingham's 8-05. The rain that has been sweeping the North today will have eased the ground slightly at the course, so the ground shouldn't be a worry. The only two negatives (and they are big ones) are that his trainer hasn't had a winner in five years from eighteen attempts with 3-Y-Os at Nottingham. And his jockey has a similar bad record over five years, not riding a 3-Y-O winner at the course in nineteen tries (mathematically that's a good sign, isn't it.... -18 multiplied by -19...?). They have to have that first winner sometime, but if he drifts on the day, I will take serious note.
Have a good Tuesday.
The (4) and (5) graded races went the opposite way and dropped below a 50% win ratio. There were ten such races. One was won by the clear top rated, three by the 2nd top rated (two of them joint) and six races were unsuccessful. A bad day.
Barney McGrew was disappointingly withdrawn from his race. And I was all excited and tingly about his prospects....
There's an interesting race to watch at Bath. The listed sprint (5-05) is chock full of good sprinters on their day. The best of them, I think anyway, are Look Busy, Pusey Street Lady and Starlit Sands. On early season form I would side with Pusey Street Lady. On overall form it would be Look Busy. On promise of better things to come it would be Starlit Sands. But the fact that Pusey Street Lady will have the race run to her liking and is proven race fit, she has to be my pick. Plus any rainfall won't affect her at all since she runs well on all types of ground and should find the stiff 5f serving her well in the closing stages.
It is not usually wise to take All Weather form seriously when reading form for turf races. But Postmaster won so well at Southwell in his debut handicap that I cannot overlook him in Nottingham's 8-05. The rain that has been sweeping the North today will have eased the ground slightly at the course, so the ground shouldn't be a worry. The only two negatives (and they are big ones) are that his trainer hasn't had a winner in five years from eighteen attempts with 3-Y-Os at Nottingham. And his jockey has a similar bad record over five years, not riding a 3-Y-O winner at the course in nineteen tries (mathematically that's a good sign, isn't it.... -18 multiplied by -19...?). They have to have that first winner sometime, but if he drifts on the day, I will take serious note.
Have a good Tuesday.
Sunday, 26 April 2009
Phew! Phew! Barney McGrew...
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There were three (4) and (5) graded races, Sunday. One won by the clear top rated, one won by the clear 2nd top rated and one was unsuccessful.
Monday offers some interesting bettable races. At Newcastle Barney McGrew (4-50) ran a suitable prep for this race when being among the followers of easy Doncaster winner, Palace Moon. He's on a reasonable handicap mark over a track he has won at before, over his best distance, on going he prefers, and in a race that will be run to suit. One of many dangers, Thebes, ran probably the best race of his career last time at Pontefract but has a better All Weather record than turf and should be one of those to set up the race for Barney. It is a good race also to watch with the future in mind for the likes of Valery Borzov, Sunrise Safari, Captain Dunne, and Celtic Sultan.
Have a good day.
There were three (4) and (5) graded races, Sunday. One won by the clear top rated, one won by the clear 2nd top rated and one was unsuccessful.
Monday offers some interesting bettable races. At Newcastle Barney McGrew (4-50) ran a suitable prep for this race when being among the followers of easy Doncaster winner, Palace Moon. He's on a reasonable handicap mark over a track he has won at before, over his best distance, on going he prefers, and in a race that will be run to suit. One of many dangers, Thebes, ran probably the best race of his career last time at Pontefract but has a better All Weather record than turf and should be one of those to set up the race for Barney. It is a good race also to watch with the future in mind for the likes of Valery Borzov, Sunrise Safari, Captain Dunne, and Celtic Sultan.
Have a good day.
Saturday, 25 April 2009
View From The Hammock
Well, Saturday was a day I want quickly to forget. I had so many seconds I was almost rushed to hospital for liposuction. Terrible.
Fortunately, a few (4) and (5) graded races provided respite. There were six such races, two won by the clear top rated, two by the second top rated, and two races were unsuccessful.
We have made the new Speed Ratings a supplement to the handicap ratings at no extra cost. You can view them for FREE until May 31 2009 HERE .
Sunday is supposedly a day of rest. So I will join the supposers and try it - at least in the morning. There are no exciting opportunities that strike me in the proverbial. So I will have another long look while dozing in my hammock. Of course, the rain will now come....
Back to normal for Monday.
Have a restful Sunday.
Fortunately, a few (4) and (5) graded races provided respite. There were six such races, two won by the clear top rated, two by the second top rated, and two races were unsuccessful.
We have made the new Speed Ratings a supplement to the handicap ratings at no extra cost. You can view them for FREE until May 31 2009 HERE .
Sunday is supposedly a day of rest. So I will join the supposers and try it - at least in the morning. There are no exciting opportunities that strike me in the proverbial. So I will have another long look while dozing in my hammock. Of course, the rain will now come....
Back to normal for Monday.
Have a restful Sunday.
Friday, 24 April 2009
Just Another Scary Saturday
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There were thirteen (4) and (5) graded races, Friday, with ten of them being successful. Five were won by the clear top rated and five by the 2nd top rated - three of them joints. Three races were unsuccessful. Subscribe to the (4) and (5) graded races HERE
I totally got Friday wrong. The danger of selecting bets overnight became apparent with Brenin Taran. His trainer more or less said he wouldn't win. He said that the horse ran today because he was forced to run him since there are very few handicaps for a 3-Y-O sprinter of his ability. And he wasn't too confident that the horse's running style would be suited to the track. When a trainer says he is "forced to run," you can be sure the horse won't win. And it didn't. But the positive is that I now know he needs fast five furlong track, not a stiff one like Sandown. But Nick Luck of RUK made a valid point about the draw. It was very clear that those drawn close to the rail had a large advantage over those drawn to the outside - as Brenin Taran was.
As for Et Maintenant, he was singularly unfancied and seemed to be expected to run averagely - which he did. It appears that Lucinda Russell is a trainer absolutely out of form. All her horses have been well beaten in the past few weeks - including the three that were placed. I will wait until her horses run better before I consider betting her horses in the next few days or weeks.
Saturday looks to be the normal minefield it always is. The highlight is, of course, the bet365 Gold Cup (3-10 Sandown). Kilbeggan Blade, my Grand National fancy is unbeaten over this course and distance, both wins being the same December race in consecutive seasons (2008 and 2009). But the balance of his form has him better on slower ground - though he has run very well on today's ground. I backed him on fast ground in the National, so it would be hypocritical of me to abandon him now. Yet, he is only worth a small each way interest. I won't be having any other interest in the contest. The bet will be only for the fun of having something to watch in the race.
In the handicap hurdle at Sandown (2-05) I give three to the field, Tasheba, Distiller and Spanish Conquest, three progressive young hurdlers. Tasheba would appear to have a tough task taking on his elders but he is improving fast and may just about find the improvement to win. He is the only runner that looks as though he is capable of taking high rank in the 2009/2010 NH season.
I am looking forward to seeing how Kalahari King (2-35 Sandown) fares against some very good two milers. If he is to progress to the top rank next season, he really needs to be winning this. I think he is capable.
Ripon has some nasty looking handicaps on its card, Saturday. It is not my favourite track - as many subscribers know. But I can't help wanting to get involved in the 2-20 handicap for three-year-olds. My record with three-year-old sprint handicappers didn't get off to a good start with Brenin Taran yesterday, but I have an idea that the race will be fought out between Corleorton Choice and Mister Laurel. My preference is for Corleorton, if only to bolster my confidence in Brenin Taran who beat him at Thirsk.
Some others I'll be looking at closer to race time include, Light From Mars (4-50 Sandown): Work Boy (3-55 Market Rasen) in another less than favoured race type: and White Shift (possible Each Way) in the 6-10 at Haydock. I may bet one, two, all three, or none. It depends upon the live market which is likely to be as volatile as it is every Saturday.
Be Careful, Saturday.
There were thirteen (4) and (5) graded races, Friday, with ten of them being successful. Five were won by the clear top rated and five by the 2nd top rated - three of them joints. Three races were unsuccessful. Subscribe to the (4) and (5) graded races HERE
I totally got Friday wrong. The danger of selecting bets overnight became apparent with Brenin Taran. His trainer more or less said he wouldn't win. He said that the horse ran today because he was forced to run him since there are very few handicaps for a 3-Y-O sprinter of his ability. And he wasn't too confident that the horse's running style would be suited to the track. When a trainer says he is "forced to run," you can be sure the horse won't win. And it didn't. But the positive is that I now know he needs fast five furlong track, not a stiff one like Sandown. But Nick Luck of RUK made a valid point about the draw. It was very clear that those drawn close to the rail had a large advantage over those drawn to the outside - as Brenin Taran was.
As for Et Maintenant, he was singularly unfancied and seemed to be expected to run averagely - which he did. It appears that Lucinda Russell is a trainer absolutely out of form. All her horses have been well beaten in the past few weeks - including the three that were placed. I will wait until her horses run better before I consider betting her horses in the next few days or weeks.
Saturday looks to be the normal minefield it always is. The highlight is, of course, the bet365 Gold Cup (3-10 Sandown). Kilbeggan Blade, my Grand National fancy is unbeaten over this course and distance, both wins being the same December race in consecutive seasons (2008 and 2009). But the balance of his form has him better on slower ground - though he has run very well on today's ground. I backed him on fast ground in the National, so it would be hypocritical of me to abandon him now. Yet, he is only worth a small each way interest. I won't be having any other interest in the contest. The bet will be only for the fun of having something to watch in the race.
In the handicap hurdle at Sandown (2-05) I give three to the field, Tasheba, Distiller and Spanish Conquest, three progressive young hurdlers. Tasheba would appear to have a tough task taking on his elders but he is improving fast and may just about find the improvement to win. He is the only runner that looks as though he is capable of taking high rank in the 2009/2010 NH season.
I am looking forward to seeing how Kalahari King (2-35 Sandown) fares against some very good two milers. If he is to progress to the top rank next season, he really needs to be winning this. I think he is capable.
Ripon has some nasty looking handicaps on its card, Saturday. It is not my favourite track - as many subscribers know. But I can't help wanting to get involved in the 2-20 handicap for three-year-olds. My record with three-year-old sprint handicappers didn't get off to a good start with Brenin Taran yesterday, but I have an idea that the race will be fought out between Corleorton Choice and Mister Laurel. My preference is for Corleorton, if only to bolster my confidence in Brenin Taran who beat him at Thirsk.
Some others I'll be looking at closer to race time include, Light From Mars (4-50 Sandown): Work Boy (3-55 Market Rasen) in another less than favoured race type: and White Shift (possible Each Way) in the 6-10 at Haydock. I may bet one, two, all three, or none. It depends upon the live market which is likely to be as volatile as it is every Saturday.
Be Careful, Saturday.
And Now Lucinda
Responding to numerous emails over the past few years, I have now created Speed Ratings on TowerForm . These ratings will be free until May 31 2009 after which I hope to integrate them into all ratings subscriptions at no extra cost. For those who prefer Speed Ratings to Handicap Ratings, they will be available as a separate service for £10.00 per month. Check them out HERE
There were eleven (4) and (5) graded races, Thursday. Four were won by the clear top rated, three by the clear 2nd top rated and four were unsuccessful. An average performance.
Money Trix was withdrawn because of the ground conditions. I had hoped he would run and win but considering his past injury problems, I suppose it was the right decision for the horse. As I have said in previous postings, I think all NH racing should be abandoned if the going description includes the word "Firm".
Will If I Want proved himself to be a thorough stayer as he dourly beat off his opponents to win all out and exhausted. He is only modest but he has shown a lot of improvement since being upped in trip on his only two runs in this country. The 800 guineas he was bought for is now looking to be a bargain - even though he will probably always hover around the low class he ran in today.
Sandown has a fairly good card on Friday with some useful looking 3-Y-Os on view. My pick of them is Brenin Taran (2-35). I liked the way he won at Thirsk last Saturday. Though he had to be ridden out in the end, he struck me as the type of progressive 3-Y-O sprinter that can win a few early season handicaps before the handicapper fully gets his measure. Last season he had a few problems exiting the stalls and was slowly away on a couple of occasions. He can't afford to do that against today's rivals but the way he came from the stalls at Thirsk suggests his trainer has rectified that flaw. With Gower Valentine in the race he will get the strong pace he needs to get him cruising on the bit. I expect him to swoop in the final furlong to pass Gower Valentine and probably hold off Affluent.... Oh, how I wish it were so simple....
Elsewhere, it seems the NH is still in full swing this Flat season. There seems to be more NH racing this Friday than there has been since last November. Very strange. Chepstow seems to be a meeting for favourite backers at first glance. But there is an intriguing race for the 7-55. The two that head the market were both beaten at odds on in similar races last time out. It will be fascinating to see if one or the other (or both) bottle it today.
Lucinda Russell usually manages to get a winner at her local track but has failed so far at the Perth Festival. Et Maintenant (5-00 Perth) looks to be the best chance she has had this week. He beat Thursday's good winner, Cantgeton, last time at Ayr with some ease, galloping on strongly on the run to the line. Admittedly, that was on soft ground, but he has won on good and firm ground in the past - in fact his previous trainer, Emma Lavelle, considered that fast ground was essential for him to show his best. The conditions will be perfect for him Friday so long as the rain holds off.
Have a good Friday.
There were eleven (4) and (5) graded races, Thursday. Four were won by the clear top rated, three by the clear 2nd top rated and four were unsuccessful. An average performance.
Money Trix was withdrawn because of the ground conditions. I had hoped he would run and win but considering his past injury problems, I suppose it was the right decision for the horse. As I have said in previous postings, I think all NH racing should be abandoned if the going description includes the word "Firm".
Will If I Want proved himself to be a thorough stayer as he dourly beat off his opponents to win all out and exhausted. He is only modest but he has shown a lot of improvement since being upped in trip on his only two runs in this country. The 800 guineas he was bought for is now looking to be a bargain - even though he will probably always hover around the low class he ran in today.
Sandown has a fairly good card on Friday with some useful looking 3-Y-Os on view. My pick of them is Brenin Taran (2-35). I liked the way he won at Thirsk last Saturday. Though he had to be ridden out in the end, he struck me as the type of progressive 3-Y-O sprinter that can win a few early season handicaps before the handicapper fully gets his measure. Last season he had a few problems exiting the stalls and was slowly away on a couple of occasions. He can't afford to do that against today's rivals but the way he came from the stalls at Thirsk suggests his trainer has rectified that flaw. With Gower Valentine in the race he will get the strong pace he needs to get him cruising on the bit. I expect him to swoop in the final furlong to pass Gower Valentine and probably hold off Affluent.... Oh, how I wish it were so simple....
Elsewhere, it seems the NH is still in full swing this Flat season. There seems to be more NH racing this Friday than there has been since last November. Very strange. Chepstow seems to be a meeting for favourite backers at first glance. But there is an intriguing race for the 7-55. The two that head the market were both beaten at odds on in similar races last time out. It will be fascinating to see if one or the other (or both) bottle it today.
Lucinda Russell usually manages to get a winner at her local track but has failed so far at the Perth Festival. Et Maintenant (5-00 Perth) looks to be the best chance she has had this week. He beat Thursday's good winner, Cantgeton, last time at Ayr with some ease, galloping on strongly on the run to the line. Admittedly, that was on soft ground, but he has won on good and firm ground in the past - in fact his previous trainer, Emma Lavelle, considered that fast ground was essential for him to show his best. The conditions will be perfect for him Friday so long as the rain holds off.
Have a good Friday.
Wednesday, 22 April 2009
Money If You Want
The (4) and (5) graded races were successful five times out of eight, Wednesday, though a dyslexic donkey could have predicted two of them. Four were won by the clear top rated and one by the clear 2nd top rated. Three were unsuccessful.
I went with 2nd top rated Hatton Flight in the Great Met for these reasons:
1. Dream Desert was no value at 4/1 in a race so competitive .
2. Aureate has only one Southwell win to his name in the last two years, added to which he is best held up. In a race that promised to have only an average pace, it would have been folly for me to consider a hold up horse ridden by Ryan Moore in those circumstances.
3. Hatton Flight has a 33% winning record on turf and was raised only a couple of pounds for beating a consistent horse last time out. The final decision was clear when I saw that William Buick has won five times from seven on the horse. In the end, it was a no brainer.
I suggested that a close eye on the live market could pay dividends in the two handicaps. And so it proved in the City and Suburban. The winner, Duncan, was the best backed horse in the live market. Unfortunately, I went with Hawaass who folded quite tamely when headed at the distance, eventually finishing a poor 12th.
One horse that is showing the type of quiet progression I like was African Cheetah in the 4-30 maiden. Making good headway up the straight to finish a respectable 3rd to two good horses, he looked all over a debut handicap winner. He's now qualified for handicaps and a mark somewhere in the mid to late 70s is one he can win off. He's bred to be a miler but it looks as though he could stay ten furlongs. I eagerly await his handicap debut.
Thursday is a very ordinary day on the flat and tricky fast ground fare over the sticks. Will If I Want (4-20 Fontwell) isn't a typical Timmy Murphy mount insomuch as he looks to be a good front runner. But he has posted two good runs on this ground since arriving from Ireland for the princely sum of 800 guineas. The increased distances he has run the last twice seems to have brought about a lot of improvement and in a race that is little better than a seller, he ought to be able to beat some extraordinarily ordinary sorts.
Money Trix has promised to become a top class chaser but injury has blighted his career. He's only been out of the first two once (fell) in nine starts against very good hurdlers and chasers and is fairly unexposed for his age. Although he needs to brush up his jumping (ignore the going concerns, many of his sires offspring have won on fast ground), he meets a field of exposed handicappers here and looks to have a good chance to show an inkling of his true worth. Possol is the biggest danger, having progressed to become fairly useful himself. He also goes very well on fast ground. Ollie Magern is not as good as he was but has a useful allowance in a race he would have won pulling a bus two or three years ago. I fully expect to see this trio finish one-two-three in the race.
Have a good day.
I went with 2nd top rated Hatton Flight in the Great Met for these reasons:
1. Dream Desert was no value at 4/1 in a race so competitive .
2. Aureate has only one Southwell win to his name in the last two years, added to which he is best held up. In a race that promised to have only an average pace, it would have been folly for me to consider a hold up horse ridden by Ryan Moore in those circumstances.
3. Hatton Flight has a 33% winning record on turf and was raised only a couple of pounds for beating a consistent horse last time out. The final decision was clear when I saw that William Buick has won five times from seven on the horse. In the end, it was a no brainer.
I suggested that a close eye on the live market could pay dividends in the two handicaps. And so it proved in the City and Suburban. The winner, Duncan, was the best backed horse in the live market. Unfortunately, I went with Hawaass who folded quite tamely when headed at the distance, eventually finishing a poor 12th.
One horse that is showing the type of quiet progression I like was African Cheetah in the 4-30 maiden. Making good headway up the straight to finish a respectable 3rd to two good horses, he looked all over a debut handicap winner. He's now qualified for handicaps and a mark somewhere in the mid to late 70s is one he can win off. He's bred to be a miler but it looks as though he could stay ten furlongs. I eagerly await his handicap debut.
Thursday is a very ordinary day on the flat and tricky fast ground fare over the sticks. Will If I Want (4-20 Fontwell) isn't a typical Timmy Murphy mount insomuch as he looks to be a good front runner. But he has posted two good runs on this ground since arriving from Ireland for the princely sum of 800 guineas. The increased distances he has run the last twice seems to have brought about a lot of improvement and in a race that is little better than a seller, he ought to be able to beat some extraordinarily ordinary sorts.
Money Trix has promised to become a top class chaser but injury has blighted his career. He's only been out of the first two once (fell) in nine starts against very good hurdlers and chasers and is fairly unexposed for his age. Although he needs to brush up his jumping (ignore the going concerns, many of his sires offspring have won on fast ground), he meets a field of exposed handicappers here and looks to have a good chance to show an inkling of his true worth. Possol is the biggest danger, having progressed to become fairly useful himself. He also goes very well on fast ground. Ollie Magern is not as good as he was but has a useful allowance in a race he would have won pulling a bus two or three years ago. I fully expect to see this trio finish one-two-three in the race.
Have a good day.
Tuesday, 21 April 2009
Wednesd-eyes Wide Open
The (4) and (5) graded races seem to be stuck in the average ruck, lately. There were six such races, Tuesday, of which three were successful. One was won by the clear top rated, one by the clear 2nd top rated and one by the joint 2nd top rated. Three, of course, were unsuccessful.
Hatta Diamond seemed very ill at ease on Folkestone's undulating track and also looked very green still. The combination contributed quite a lot to his defeat. Safari Adventures took a keen hold early and the final hill found him out after the last as he weakened into third close home. But every cloud.... We also gave subscribers the race as the best dutch of the day with Miss Pross. We also dutched. So it wasn't really a bad result for us or our subscribers.
Someone asked me today what I thought about the coverage racing gets from ATR and RUK, adding the further question of which I considered the best channel. Some say we are badly served by presenters and pundits compared to other sports. To this statement I ask: which sports?
After listening to years of moronic commentaries and summings up from football people on TV, I would say racing is excellently served - much better served than virtually all the sports I can think of. True, there are one or two below standard pundits two of whom, in my humble opinion, are on the Morning Line every Saturday morning.
To the other question, which is the best racing presentation between the two (ATR/RUK), I would not like to be too critical, save to say that in TV terms one is Newsround, the other News At Ten. I'll let you work out which is which yourselves.
Wednesday sees the opening Epsom meeting of the year. In my youth this meeting was eagerly awaited with the Blue Riband Derby Trial, the Great Met, and the City and Suburban being premier races of the time. Unfortunately, over the years the meeting has plunged to the depths of being just an above average mid-week meeting. How times change - for the worse in this case.
The Great Met (3-05) and the City and Suburban (4-15) are extremely competitive and very hard to work out. Aureate, Hatton Flight and Dream Desert look the three to play with in the Great Met, while in the City and Suburban, there seems to be virtually every horse in with a sneak. I personally like Hawaass and Ladies Best, one-two at Pontefract a couple of weeks ago. The fourth that day, Lake Poet appears to be a course specialist and is necessarily rated a big danger in a very wide open race. I will decide nearer to post time which - if any - I will bet. They are good races where an eye on the live market can pay dividends.
Have a good Wednesday.
Hatta Diamond seemed very ill at ease on Folkestone's undulating track and also looked very green still. The combination contributed quite a lot to his defeat. Safari Adventures took a keen hold early and the final hill found him out after the last as he weakened into third close home. But every cloud.... We also gave subscribers the race as the best dutch of the day with Miss Pross. We also dutched. So it wasn't really a bad result for us or our subscribers.
Someone asked me today what I thought about the coverage racing gets from ATR and RUK, adding the further question of which I considered the best channel. Some say we are badly served by presenters and pundits compared to other sports. To this statement I ask: which sports?
After listening to years of moronic commentaries and summings up from football people on TV, I would say racing is excellently served - much better served than virtually all the sports I can think of. True, there are one or two below standard pundits two of whom, in my humble opinion, are on the Morning Line every Saturday morning.
To the other question, which is the best racing presentation between the two (ATR/RUK), I would not like to be too critical, save to say that in TV terms one is Newsround, the other News At Ten. I'll let you work out which is which yourselves.
Wednesday sees the opening Epsom meeting of the year. In my youth this meeting was eagerly awaited with the Blue Riband Derby Trial, the Great Met, and the City and Suburban being premier races of the time. Unfortunately, over the years the meeting has plunged to the depths of being just an above average mid-week meeting. How times change - for the worse in this case.
The Great Met (3-05) and the City and Suburban (4-15) are extremely competitive and very hard to work out. Aureate, Hatton Flight and Dream Desert look the three to play with in the Great Met, while in the City and Suburban, there seems to be virtually every horse in with a sneak. I personally like Hawaass and Ladies Best, one-two at Pontefract a couple of weeks ago. The fourth that day, Lake Poet appears to be a course specialist and is necessarily rated a big danger in a very wide open race. I will decide nearer to post time which - if any - I will bet. They are good races where an eye on the live market can pay dividends.
Have a good Wednesday.
Monday, 20 April 2009
Diamonds and Safaris
The (4) and (5) graded races continued their average phase, Monday. There were five such races, one won by the clear top rated horse and two by the joint 2nd top rated. Two were unsuccessful.
There was no significant money for Briery Star so the proposed dutch stood and was successful with Upright Ima winning comfortably. As for Strong Storm, the information I had (via telephone and email back up) was totally flawed. There were negative vibes about the horse early and he drifted badly. On course, he opened slightly shorter but again drifted. So I did not bet the horse. When a horse trained by Noseda drifts, you take notice. Instead I had the dutch with El Bravo - given a ride to wonder at.
Ryan Moore is the best young jockey around. He is the current and, no doubt, the future 2009 champion jockey. But what we tend to forget is the important fact that he is young. Currently he has the very irritating habit of laying too far out of his ground. He did that here on El Bravo. If he has hopes of joining the elite heights of Lester Piggott, Pat Eddery, Joe Mercer, Geoff Lewis, Willie Carson and Steve Cauthen, he has to rid himself of that habit. Otherwise he will be remembered simply as a champion jockey in an era when there was a true dearth of high class jockey talent. But he has time to overcome that glaring flaw in his jockeyship: he is young. (I remember another young jockey who was heading for dizzying heights before his flaws became apparent; Sandy Barclay.)
There are a number of interesting bettable races, Tuesday. Safari Adventures (7-30 Towcester) has hit form and should improve on his recent 2nd at Plumpton. He had looked as if he had galloped all but One For the Boys into the ground until he blundered at the last and handed that opponent the race. The rest of the field were well beaten off and a repeat run should be good enough.
Hatta Diamond (5-35 Folkestone) looks a good bet to confirm his form with Morning Sir Alan. They were a head apart when they met at Wolverhampton last month and are handicapped to dead heat today. But while Hatta Diamond looked as though he would improve for the win, Morning Sir Alan has since run again and shown no improvement. It is obviously possible that Morning Sir Alan had an off day last time (maybe he needed a stronger pace) but Hatta Diamond has much more promise than his rival.
Have a good day.
There was no significant money for Briery Star so the proposed dutch stood and was successful with Upright Ima winning comfortably. As for Strong Storm, the information I had (via telephone and email back up) was totally flawed. There were negative vibes about the horse early and he drifted badly. On course, he opened slightly shorter but again drifted. So I did not bet the horse. When a horse trained by Noseda drifts, you take notice. Instead I had the dutch with El Bravo - given a ride to wonder at.
Ryan Moore is the best young jockey around. He is the current and, no doubt, the future 2009 champion jockey. But what we tend to forget is the important fact that he is young. Currently he has the very irritating habit of laying too far out of his ground. He did that here on El Bravo. If he has hopes of joining the elite heights of Lester Piggott, Pat Eddery, Joe Mercer, Geoff Lewis, Willie Carson and Steve Cauthen, he has to rid himself of that habit. Otherwise he will be remembered simply as a champion jockey in an era when there was a true dearth of high class jockey talent. But he has time to overcome that glaring flaw in his jockeyship: he is young. (I remember another young jockey who was heading for dizzying heights before his flaws became apparent; Sandy Barclay.)
There are a number of interesting bettable races, Tuesday. Safari Adventures (7-30 Towcester) has hit form and should improve on his recent 2nd at Plumpton. He had looked as if he had galloped all but One For the Boys into the ground until he blundered at the last and handed that opponent the race. The rest of the field were well beaten off and a repeat run should be good enough.
Hatta Diamond (5-35 Folkestone) looks a good bet to confirm his form with Morning Sir Alan. They were a head apart when they met at Wolverhampton last month and are handicapped to dead heat today. But while Hatta Diamond looked as though he would improve for the win, Morning Sir Alan has since run again and shown no improvement. It is obviously possible that Morning Sir Alan had an off day last time (maybe he needed a stronger pace) but Hatta Diamond has much more promise than his rival.
Have a good day.
Sunday, 19 April 2009
Windsor Storm
The (4) and (5) races performed averagely, Sunday. Of seven such races in the UK there were four wins (two clear top winners and two clear 2nd top rated winners) and three unsuccessful races.
Paul Nicholls had a couple of odds on losers as we inferred he would but then he goes and spoils our banker dutch by producing a 10/1 winner. Sods Law....
Monday looks a dangerous day for punting. Extremely firm conditions at Pontefract makes the card look trickier than it appears to be at first reading; so is the case at the NH meetings. Windsor has its share of large field maidens which are normally races to watch for the future rather than get heavily involved in. And you know my views on the all weather surface - tomorrow at Wolverhampton.
But some races do look interesting nevertheless. The mares handicap at Hexham (4-00) looks tricky at first glance but not many have a realistic chance. The two I have against the field are Miss Tarantella and Upright Ima. But Briery Star and Ceilidh Lass are two to keep a close eye on in the market. If the latter two are not backed, then I will assume that the former two are expected. I'll decide closer to the race about having a dutch bet.
Strong Storm looks to have a big chance at Windsor (7-50). Unfortunately, it seems that the whole of Newmarket believes the same. So I would think he will be a short price. If he touches 2/1, he would be a good bet.
Have a good Monday.
Paul Nicholls had a couple of odds on losers as we inferred he would but then he goes and spoils our banker dutch by producing a 10/1 winner. Sods Law....
Monday looks a dangerous day for punting. Extremely firm conditions at Pontefract makes the card look trickier than it appears to be at first reading; so is the case at the NH meetings. Windsor has its share of large field maidens which are normally races to watch for the future rather than get heavily involved in. And you know my views on the all weather surface - tomorrow at Wolverhampton.
But some races do look interesting nevertheless. The mares handicap at Hexham (4-00) looks tricky at first glance but not many have a realistic chance. The two I have against the field are Miss Tarantella and Upright Ima. But Briery Star and Ceilidh Lass are two to keep a close eye on in the market. If the latter two are not backed, then I will assume that the former two are expected. I'll decide closer to the race about having a dutch bet.
Strong Storm looks to have a big chance at Windsor (7-50). Unfortunately, it seems that the whole of Newmarket believes the same. So I would think he will be a short price. If he touches 2/1, he would be a good bet.
Have a good Monday.
Saturday, 18 April 2009
Sunday, Blandly Sunday
There were only four (4) and (5) graded races, Saturday, and they performed badly. Only one race was successful and won by the clear top rated horse.
The classic trials did not impress me as having a likely classic winner and I will not begin to work out what the form of the Newbury Spring Cup produced. All the top fancies ran poorly - especially my fancy, Muwatheeq. The ground cannot be the main reason for the indifferent display of him or the market leaders. It seems to be "one of those races." It's best not to dwell and to just accept that big field handicaps on rain softened ground sometimes produce results you never expected. We move on.
Sunday is not very attractive betting-wise. Paul Nicholls has his usual share of hot favourites but some of them have been running below par after a long season and one will probably get turned over.
Kammaan (2-40 Lingfield) is a promising maiden but will be a very short price. Dreams Jewel and Dan Tucker (5-20 Wincanton) look likely ones but are running in a conditionals event - which is not my favourite type of race. And the Stratford card looks wide open outside the non handicap races.
All in all, it does not look like I will be betting. All the best to you if you decide to bet a few.
The classic trials did not impress me as having a likely classic winner and I will not begin to work out what the form of the Newbury Spring Cup produced. All the top fancies ran poorly - especially my fancy, Muwatheeq. The ground cannot be the main reason for the indifferent display of him or the market leaders. It seems to be "one of those races." It's best not to dwell and to just accept that big field handicaps on rain softened ground sometimes produce results you never expected. We move on.
Sunday is not very attractive betting-wise. Paul Nicholls has his usual share of hot favourites but some of them have been running below par after a long season and one will probably get turned over.
Kammaan (2-40 Lingfield) is a promising maiden but will be a very short price. Dreams Jewel and Dan Tucker (5-20 Wincanton) look likely ones but are running in a conditionals event - which is not my favourite type of race. And the Stratford card looks wide open outside the non handicap races.
All in all, it does not look like I will be betting. All the best to you if you decide to bet a few.
Friday, 17 April 2009
Tricky Saturday
The (4) and (5) graded races again began slowly, Friday, with two of the first three failing. But they picked up again later. There were nine such races, seven were successful, two unsuccessful. The seven wins included five clear top rated wins and two 2nd top wins (one joint).
I have to say that one of the losing races was a horrible race for lovers of the sport. Two horses died providing us with entertainment. I also have to say (and this is a long standing view) that if the ground description in NH racing has the word "Firm" in it, it should be abandoned without further thought. If you don't understand why I feel this way, just try an experiment. Put a box in a grass field. During deepest winter run to the box and jump over it. Notice the stress on your ankle and knee joints. Repeat the experiment in the height of summer. I think you know what I mean.
The official going at Ayr was good. But they had been watering a firm track. Doing this can lead to the track being slippery and horses can struggle at points of the course with traction. This was clearly the case with the two horses that slipped up near the home bend. Sadly, one slip was fatal. This is the ultimate danger of watering a firm track. It happens on the flat as well. The problem as I see it is that watering too much during the year can cause the grass to need shallower roots. This makes the grass looser and slippier. It is time they stopped over watering NH tracks and simply banned racing on Firm and Good to Firm ground. I would certainly welcome that - not sure that inveterate gamblers would, though.
Father Time ran much as I expected. The heart was willing but the legs wouldn't go fast enough. He ran exactly as if he needed the run - as Henry Cecil's horses have been running in the main. But it is interesting to note that his maiden winner was his second string ridden by a second string jockey (Queally was on the beaten Cecil favourite, Hyades). Another nail...?
Saturday doesn't look a day for the faint hearted with two highly competitive handicaps (Scottish National and the Newbury Spring Cup) and two wide open Classic trials.
The Spring Cup brings back together a number of Lincoln runners plus some who failed to make the cut and ran in the Spring Mile. Zaahid won't be as inconvenienced by the softening ground as many think, neither will Mia's Boy. So I expect those to confirm the form with those behind in the Lincoln. Manassas who won the Spring Mile will be a massive danger to all, but the one that peaks my each way interest is top weight Mawatheeq. The only time he has run in a handicap was when he absolutely trounced a good field of Class 4 handicappers. Athough this is much higher class, he has bags of scope and should be at his prime this season.
Apparently rejected by Richard Hills who favours last years 3rd, Zaahid, Mawatheeq is a horse of far greater potential and is so highly regarded by the Maktoum team that they have entered him in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and the Group 1 Juddmonte. It won't be that outstanding a result if he wins because, though he's top weight, the handicap is pretty compressed with only 12lbs separating top from bottom. And if he doesn't end up more than 6lbs better than European Dream or 7lbs better that Cobo Bay, for example I, and I expect, the Maktoums will be shocked.
Though his trainer has concerns about the ground, it shouldn't be any problem since many of his sire's offspring have won top class races on good to soft and soft - most notably Dayjur. But just in case, I will be holding back until he is a confirmed runner. But if he runs, I will be having an each way interest (currently 14/1).
Maoineach should post a good run in the Fred Darling but the race looks far too competitive for me to be confident of anything. There are about half a dozen possible for the Greenham with Lord Shanakill currently being ahead of his field on the handicap. But many of these will have improved a lot over the close season and it is a matter of luck knowing whether any of them have improved past Lord Shanakill, Finjaan and Shaweel.
The Scottish Grand National sets the poser it sets almost every year - which horse acts best on the good, fast ground. There were crowds of people crowing "what use are handicappers" after a horse 20lbs out of the handicap won the race last year. The laughter was deafening. But it showed a gross ignorance of horse racing.
First - and pretty basic, I think, is the fact that horses are not automatons. They are not like cars that move effortlessy along when you press the pedal. They are flesh and blood. One muffled voice - mine - went unheard. The fact is the ground was an unknown for most of the field and, because of the likely going, many top horses defected. This left just three -yes, you heard right - just three horses in the handicap proper. Every other horse was out of the handicap. And only a handful were less than 10lbs out of the handicap. Most were between 10 and 28lbs out of the handicap and the winner, Iris De Balme was stuck in the middle of them on 20lbs out.
So it wasn't the horrendous "handicapping shocker" that many made out. The loudest critics were those who know absolutely nothing about horse racing other than there is a bookie in their village. Rant over!
Horses just out of the novice stage have a very good record in the race and there are a number of likely contenders on that score this year (a proper handicap because only two are out of the handicap proper!). The best of them appear to be Chief Dan George, Tricky Trickster and West End Rocker. Tricky Trickster is my pick of the three. At first sight it seems Paddy Brennan has abandoned him to ride the stable's other contender, Hello Bud. But this horse has a touch of class and has a good amateur taking a valuable 7lbs out of the saddle. He won well at Cheltenham in a race that has produced winners and placed horses in this race before (he had Nine De Sivola ten lengths behind). This race was earmarked for him shortly after. He'll do for me.
Have a good Saturday.
I have to say that one of the losing races was a horrible race for lovers of the sport. Two horses died providing us with entertainment. I also have to say (and this is a long standing view) that if the ground description in NH racing has the word "Firm" in it, it should be abandoned without further thought. If you don't understand why I feel this way, just try an experiment. Put a box in a grass field. During deepest winter run to the box and jump over it. Notice the stress on your ankle and knee joints. Repeat the experiment in the height of summer. I think you know what I mean.
The official going at Ayr was good. But they had been watering a firm track. Doing this can lead to the track being slippery and horses can struggle at points of the course with traction. This was clearly the case with the two horses that slipped up near the home bend. Sadly, one slip was fatal. This is the ultimate danger of watering a firm track. It happens on the flat as well. The problem as I see it is that watering too much during the year can cause the grass to need shallower roots. This makes the grass looser and slippier. It is time they stopped over watering NH tracks and simply banned racing on Firm and Good to Firm ground. I would certainly welcome that - not sure that inveterate gamblers would, though.
Father Time ran much as I expected. The heart was willing but the legs wouldn't go fast enough. He ran exactly as if he needed the run - as Henry Cecil's horses have been running in the main. But it is interesting to note that his maiden winner was his second string ridden by a second string jockey (Queally was on the beaten Cecil favourite, Hyades). Another nail...?
Saturday doesn't look a day for the faint hearted with two highly competitive handicaps (Scottish National and the Newbury Spring Cup) and two wide open Classic trials.
The Spring Cup brings back together a number of Lincoln runners plus some who failed to make the cut and ran in the Spring Mile. Zaahid won't be as inconvenienced by the softening ground as many think, neither will Mia's Boy. So I expect those to confirm the form with those behind in the Lincoln. Manassas who won the Spring Mile will be a massive danger to all, but the one that peaks my each way interest is top weight Mawatheeq. The only time he has run in a handicap was when he absolutely trounced a good field of Class 4 handicappers. Athough this is much higher class, he has bags of scope and should be at his prime this season.
Apparently rejected by Richard Hills who favours last years 3rd, Zaahid, Mawatheeq is a horse of far greater potential and is so highly regarded by the Maktoum team that they have entered him in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and the Group 1 Juddmonte. It won't be that outstanding a result if he wins because, though he's top weight, the handicap is pretty compressed with only 12lbs separating top from bottom. And if he doesn't end up more than 6lbs better than European Dream or 7lbs better that Cobo Bay, for example I, and I expect, the Maktoums will be shocked.
Though his trainer has concerns about the ground, it shouldn't be any problem since many of his sire's offspring have won top class races on good to soft and soft - most notably Dayjur. But just in case, I will be holding back until he is a confirmed runner. But if he runs, I will be having an each way interest (currently 14/1).
Maoineach should post a good run in the Fred Darling but the race looks far too competitive for me to be confident of anything. There are about half a dozen possible for the Greenham with Lord Shanakill currently being ahead of his field on the handicap. But many of these will have improved a lot over the close season and it is a matter of luck knowing whether any of them have improved past Lord Shanakill, Finjaan and Shaweel.
The Scottish Grand National sets the poser it sets almost every year - which horse acts best on the good, fast ground. There were crowds of people crowing "what use are handicappers" after a horse 20lbs out of the handicap won the race last year. The laughter was deafening. But it showed a gross ignorance of horse racing.
First - and pretty basic, I think, is the fact that horses are not automatons. They are not like cars that move effortlessy along when you press the pedal. They are flesh and blood. One muffled voice - mine - went unheard. The fact is the ground was an unknown for most of the field and, because of the likely going, many top horses defected. This left just three -yes, you heard right - just three horses in the handicap proper. Every other horse was out of the handicap. And only a handful were less than 10lbs out of the handicap. Most were between 10 and 28lbs out of the handicap and the winner, Iris De Balme was stuck in the middle of them on 20lbs out.
So it wasn't the horrendous "handicapping shocker" that many made out. The loudest critics were those who know absolutely nothing about horse racing other than there is a bookie in their village. Rant over!
Horses just out of the novice stage have a very good record in the race and there are a number of likely contenders on that score this year (a proper handicap because only two are out of the handicap proper!). The best of them appear to be Chief Dan George, Tricky Trickster and West End Rocker. Tricky Trickster is my pick of the three. At first sight it seems Paddy Brennan has abandoned him to ride the stable's other contender, Hello Bud. But this horse has a touch of class and has a good amateur taking a valuable 7lbs out of the saddle. He won well at Cheltenham in a race that has produced winners and placed horses in this race before (he had Nine De Sivola ten lengths behind). This race was earmarked for him shortly after. He'll do for me.
Have a good Saturday.
Thursday, 16 April 2009
Plethora of Nuance
The (4) and (5) graded races started very badly, Thursday, with four of the first five races being unsuccessful. Fortunately, they picked up after that. There were ten such races, three being won by the clear top rated, and three won by the 2nd top rated (two of them joint and one becoming clear 2nd top due to a non runner), and four were unsuccessful.
"I just can't see him (Twice Over) being beaten - though I have said that before...." and I'll probably say it again. Twice Over's run was simply baffling. I don't think he was given a good ride, but he wouldn't have won with a good ride. He is/was a lot better than he showed here. There didn't seem to be any real excuse. He just didn't run well.
I am still getting emails questioning my intelligence and more or less telling me to enrol in english classes if I don't know that method and system are the exact same thing. I have to retort that if they are exactly the same thing, why are there two words in the english language saying the same thing. The truth is there are not two words saying the same thing. The beauty of the english language is its plethora of nuance. If you don't understand that, then enrol on an english course....
Let's finally put this argument to bed. A system is not a method and I'll now show you why.
To make this random I simply googled "horse racing system" to find a system in the public domain (no copyright issues). I came across this one.
1: Use all flat racing handicap races in the UK including all weather races.
2: The horse must be the betting forecast favourite or joint favourite in the Racing Post betting forecast.
3: The price must be between 2/1 to 15/2 inclusive.
4: The horse must have won its last race within the last 15 days
5: The horse should be between 2 and 5 years old
6: The horse should be male, i.e., a colt or gelding
The first horse this threw up was Pickering in the 4-45 at Ripon. It adhered to all 6 criteria and was thus a system bet. No question.
Now, if you are a systemite, you had no choice but to bet the horse. But if you looked at Pickering methodologically, you might have thought twice. There are many methodologies but the one I use is the "pro/con" approach. So here is what I came up with for the horse.
PROs
1: In form
2: Fit
3: Low weight
4: Distance winner
5: Has run well on the ground
6: Posted best racing post ratings figure last time
7: Posted best Topspeed figure last time
8: Top rated by TowerForm
9: Trainer in reasonable form
10: Trainer has reasonable course record for the race type (26%)
11: Jockey has good record with trainer (29% on 4-Y-O+)
CONS
1: Won only twice in 17 runs
2: Runs best when fresh (both wins, including last time came on seasonal debut)
3: Never won from this mark (62 plus 7lb ex = 69)
4: Not been placed at Ripon (2 runs)
5: Has unfavourable draw
6: Overall form suggests it is better running in sprints with bends (best form at Pontefract, Warwick and Wolverhampton - none run on a straight track)
7: Never run well in class 4 or higher.
The system says Pickering is a bet. The method says Pickering is a horrible bet. You might think that eleven positives outweigh seven negatives. But if you look closely, the things you need to bet a horse are simply not there. The premier one is that the horse must either be progressing or liable to be progressing, or it must have performed well in similar class, in similar conditions and on a similar track before. Many of the negatives say Pickering is not visibly progressing, hasn't performed well against this class (Class 4), and doesn't run well on straight tracks. Add the negative that it has only won on its seasonal debut run (which came last time out) and you worry if the horse is up to the task.
If you are a system follower, you never see the negatives. You simply back the horse with a blindfold over your eyes and a broken synapse or two in your brain. If you use the above or similar method, you don't bet the horse.
In the end Pickering ran well, being beaten less than half a length. It was an excellent run. But the fact is he got beaten. And it left me with the impression that had the race been a Class 5 handicap at Pontefract, he would have won. But it was at Ripon. And he lost. Even though the final result was very close, I sincerely hope I have proven that METHOD IS NOT THE SAME AS SYSTEM.
Now, leave me alone....
Friday is a very busy day with three NH and three Flat meetings. The focus is Newbury which has its normal quota of large field maidens. But the 3-15 is the race that interests me. Father Time has his chance to lay claim to a place in the Derby line up. In the days leading to this race I was of the opinion that he would come through it with flying colours. But now I am not too certain. Henry Cecil's horses have been running well but most of them seem to be a heartbeat away from total race fitness. I have to say that because I don't want to believe what my head is telling me.
The number of 2nd's ridden by TP Queally are beginning to make me think he is not the jockey Henry Cecil needs. He has ridden 8 horses for Cecil in the last 14 days, riding one winner, four 2nd's, one 3rd, and a 4th and a 5th. I can't help feeling that a better jockey would have turned most of those 2nd's into winners. Now, I'm not saying he is a bad jockey. Far from it. He is a good jockey. But he is neither the class or talent of jockey a top trainer needs. He is no Cauthen, Fallon, or Mercer who were the premier jockeys for Henry in his halcyon days. But outside the top few there is a dearth of high class jockeys. There are many good ones, some competent ones, and some rather- well, I'll not go further today.... But at the very least, Henry needs a Hanagan, or a Callan, or a Robinson, or at least a Winston or an Eaves. Unfortunately, the first three names already have good jobs....
Of course, it could indeed be that Henry's horses are a heartbeat from total race fitness. If so, Queally will prove me wrong. And I am always happy to be proved wrong. I am not so arrogant that I think I am right about everything. Inherently, I am a skeptic, not a debunker.
Have a good Friday.
"I just can't see him (Twice Over) being beaten - though I have said that before...." and I'll probably say it again. Twice Over's run was simply baffling. I don't think he was given a good ride, but he wouldn't have won with a good ride. He is/was a lot better than he showed here. There didn't seem to be any real excuse. He just didn't run well.
I am still getting emails questioning my intelligence and more or less telling me to enrol in english classes if I don't know that method and system are the exact same thing. I have to retort that if they are exactly the same thing, why are there two words in the english language saying the same thing. The truth is there are not two words saying the same thing. The beauty of the english language is its plethora of nuance. If you don't understand that, then enrol on an english course....
Let's finally put this argument to bed. A system is not a method and I'll now show you why.
To make this random I simply googled "horse racing system" to find a system in the public domain (no copyright issues). I came across this one.
1: Use all flat racing handicap races in the UK including all weather races.
2: The horse must be the betting forecast favourite or joint favourite in the Racing Post betting forecast.
3: The price must be between 2/1 to 15/2 inclusive.
4: The horse must have won its last race within the last 15 days
5: The horse should be between 2 and 5 years old
6: The horse should be male, i.e., a colt or gelding
The first horse this threw up was Pickering in the 4-45 at Ripon. It adhered to all 6 criteria and was thus a system bet. No question.
Now, if you are a systemite, you had no choice but to bet the horse. But if you looked at Pickering methodologically, you might have thought twice. There are many methodologies but the one I use is the "pro/con" approach. So here is what I came up with for the horse.
PROs
1: In form
2: Fit
3: Low weight
4: Distance winner
5: Has run well on the ground
6: Posted best racing post ratings figure last time
7: Posted best Topspeed figure last time
8: Top rated by TowerForm
9: Trainer in reasonable form
10: Trainer has reasonable course record for the race type (26%)
11: Jockey has good record with trainer (29% on 4-Y-O+)
CONS
1: Won only twice in 17 runs
2: Runs best when fresh (both wins, including last time came on seasonal debut)
3: Never won from this mark (62 plus 7lb ex = 69)
4: Not been placed at Ripon (2 runs)
5: Has unfavourable draw
6: Overall form suggests it is better running in sprints with bends (best form at Pontefract, Warwick and Wolverhampton - none run on a straight track)
7: Never run well in class 4 or higher.
The system says Pickering is a bet. The method says Pickering is a horrible bet. You might think that eleven positives outweigh seven negatives. But if you look closely, the things you need to bet a horse are simply not there. The premier one is that the horse must either be progressing or liable to be progressing, or it must have performed well in similar class, in similar conditions and on a similar track before. Many of the negatives say Pickering is not visibly progressing, hasn't performed well against this class (Class 4), and doesn't run well on straight tracks. Add the negative that it has only won on its seasonal debut run (which came last time out) and you worry if the horse is up to the task.
If you are a system follower, you never see the negatives. You simply back the horse with a blindfold over your eyes and a broken synapse or two in your brain. If you use the above or similar method, you don't bet the horse.
In the end Pickering ran well, being beaten less than half a length. It was an excellent run. But the fact is he got beaten. And it left me with the impression that had the race been a Class 5 handicap at Pontefract, he would have won. But it was at Ripon. And he lost. Even though the final result was very close, I sincerely hope I have proven that METHOD IS NOT THE SAME AS SYSTEM.
Now, leave me alone....
Friday is a very busy day with three NH and three Flat meetings. The focus is Newbury which has its normal quota of large field maidens. But the 3-15 is the race that interests me. Father Time has his chance to lay claim to a place in the Derby line up. In the days leading to this race I was of the opinion that he would come through it with flying colours. But now I am not too certain. Henry Cecil's horses have been running well but most of them seem to be a heartbeat away from total race fitness. I have to say that because I don't want to believe what my head is telling me.
The number of 2nd's ridden by TP Queally are beginning to make me think he is not the jockey Henry Cecil needs. He has ridden 8 horses for Cecil in the last 14 days, riding one winner, four 2nd's, one 3rd, and a 4th and a 5th. I can't help feeling that a better jockey would have turned most of those 2nd's into winners. Now, I'm not saying he is a bad jockey. Far from it. He is a good jockey. But he is neither the class or talent of jockey a top trainer needs. He is no Cauthen, Fallon, or Mercer who were the premier jockeys for Henry in his halcyon days. But outside the top few there is a dearth of high class jockeys. There are many good ones, some competent ones, and some rather- well, I'll not go further today.... But at the very least, Henry needs a Hanagan, or a Callan, or a Robinson, or at least a Winston or an Eaves. Unfortunately, the first three names already have good jobs....
Of course, it could indeed be that Henry's horses are a heartbeat from total race fitness. If so, Queally will prove me wrong. And I am always happy to be proved wrong. I am not so arrogant that I think I am right about everything. Inherently, I am a skeptic, not a debunker.
Have a good Friday.
Wednesday, 15 April 2009
Twice Over To Repeat
There were six (4) and (5) graded races, Wednesday. Two were won by the clear top rated horse, and three by the 2nd top rated horse, one of them joint 2nd top. One was unsuccessful which, ironically, was our "banker" dutch.
My first reaction to the defeat of Native Ruler in Newmarket's 1-50 was one of disappointment. But after reviewing a recording of the race a number of times, I eventually considered it an excellent debut. He showed a willing attitude but had problems finding the right leg. He kept changing from off fore to near fore but once he found his leg in the final stages he ran on encouragingly. It was said post-race that he may have been better suited to slightly easier ground (good as opposed to the good to firm he encountered here). But I think there was a certain amount of "what do I do here?" when he was asked for his full effort. Unfortunately, when it clicked in his mind and he found his leg, it was all too late. Remembering that Henry Cecil improved the 1993 Derby winner Commander in Chief almost 40lbs after he won this race on his debut, all is not yet lost. I expect him to reach the heights his breeding promises. Whether those heights will include the Derby is still open to question but it is not impossible to achieve. I await his next run with huge interest.
Fantasia demolished a fairish field of fillies in the Nell Gwyn. But she looks unlikely to challenge Rainbow View in the English Guineas. She is in the same ownership as Rainbow View and we all know what that means. They won't meet because the scenario looks to be that connections will be looking for a clean sweep of the major European Guineas and Oaks (depending on how each wins the guineas- if each wins). A tall task to say the least but it is a scenario connections no doubt will be very seriously considering. Greedy sods!
Thursday promises to be just as informative as Wednesday. The Craven Stakes (3-35) doesn't look as straightforward as the Nell Gwyn on paper. But the worst kept secret so far this season is that Delegator has been extremely impressive on the gallops. His form in relation to the others gives him a winning chance anyway, but if the reports are to be believed, he is over the line now. But no-one can ever discount a Michael Stoute Craven runner. Glass Harmonium won a minor maiden at Yarmouth last year with huge authority and was marked down by many as a horse to watch as a 3-Y-O. Sir Michael has won this race with similar unexposed types before and the horse should not be discounted. I expect Delegator and Glass Harmonium to be the 1-2 in the race. The run of Liberation on Wednesday augurs badly for the chances of City Style and if he manages to win you can completely disregard the race as a pointer to the Guineas.
Elsewhere on the card, Twice Over looks good to follow last year's Craven win with a victory in The Earl of Sefton (4-10). Henry Cecil has an excellent record with 4-Y-Os and I just can't see him being beaten - though I have said that before....
Have a good Thursday.
My first reaction to the defeat of Native Ruler in Newmarket's 1-50 was one of disappointment. But after reviewing a recording of the race a number of times, I eventually considered it an excellent debut. He showed a willing attitude but had problems finding the right leg. He kept changing from off fore to near fore but once he found his leg in the final stages he ran on encouragingly. It was said post-race that he may have been better suited to slightly easier ground (good as opposed to the good to firm he encountered here). But I think there was a certain amount of "what do I do here?" when he was asked for his full effort. Unfortunately, when it clicked in his mind and he found his leg, it was all too late. Remembering that Henry Cecil improved the 1993 Derby winner Commander in Chief almost 40lbs after he won this race on his debut, all is not yet lost. I expect him to reach the heights his breeding promises. Whether those heights will include the Derby is still open to question but it is not impossible to achieve. I await his next run with huge interest.
Fantasia demolished a fairish field of fillies in the Nell Gwyn. But she looks unlikely to challenge Rainbow View in the English Guineas. She is in the same ownership as Rainbow View and we all know what that means. They won't meet because the scenario looks to be that connections will be looking for a clean sweep of the major European Guineas and Oaks (depending on how each wins the guineas- if each wins). A tall task to say the least but it is a scenario connections no doubt will be very seriously considering. Greedy sods!
Thursday promises to be just as informative as Wednesday. The Craven Stakes (3-35) doesn't look as straightforward as the Nell Gwyn on paper. But the worst kept secret so far this season is that Delegator has been extremely impressive on the gallops. His form in relation to the others gives him a winning chance anyway, but if the reports are to be believed, he is over the line now. But no-one can ever discount a Michael Stoute Craven runner. Glass Harmonium won a minor maiden at Yarmouth last year with huge authority and was marked down by many as a horse to watch as a 3-Y-O. Sir Michael has won this race with similar unexposed types before and the horse should not be discounted. I expect Delegator and Glass Harmonium to be the 1-2 in the race. The run of Liberation on Wednesday augurs badly for the chances of City Style and if he manages to win you can completely disregard the race as a pointer to the Guineas.
Elsewhere on the card, Twice Over looks good to follow last year's Craven win with a victory in The Earl of Sefton (4-10). Henry Cecil has an excellent record with 4-Y-Os and I just can't see him being beaten - though I have said that before....
Have a good Thursday.
Tuesday, 14 April 2009
Go Native
To make things clear (and I thought things were) the adverts you see in the right column are placed there by Google. True, I had to sign up to the ads to get them placed there, but they are simply a "space filler" and I do not in any way endorse them. Please investigate fully any advertisement you see. Never sign up for anything (including TowerForm) unless you are completely confident that what is presented has been fully proven to you. If the vendors don't provide clear proof at your asking, then don't sign up. Lists of past wins mean absolutely nothing - they are susceptible to manipulation. Ask to see the results in action, day by day. If they don't offer you that facility, then move on and find someone who does.
There were six (4) and (5) graded races, Tuesday. Two were won by the clear top rated, two by the 2nd top rated (one of them joint) and two were unsuccessful. (You can either subscribe to 4-5 Dutch HERE or you can monitor the results in action for seven days by registering HERE .)
It would seem that Sana Abel hasn't shown too much at home if the betting was anything to go by. Opening at 9/2 and drifting to 8/1, the negative vibes seemed to be right as she came under pressure pretty early in the race. But she responded well and finished like a future winner, being beaten just about a length. There were some nice words about some of her rivals pre-race with hints of progression up the racing levels. But the proximity of the third, Lonely Star, reduces the form level to Class 2 or 3 handicapping. The next runs will provide more answers. Yet, though Sana Abel was slightly disappointing, she did show promise. It is well known that some horses who show little at home, thrive once they have had racecourse experience. Maybe Sana Abel is such a horse. Her breeding would suggest so since some of her high class siblings (such as Itnab, Haafiz, Shumookh) were beaten in similar class maidens before progressing to win good races. So all is not yet lost. Her next run will tell much more about her latent ability.
At face value the result of the 3-50 almost had me eating my words, but in reality Aakef beat Bouvardia very cosily. To let you know now, I will be backing Bouvardia with confidence next time he runs in a 6f race. Captain Carey was held up as usual but couldn't muster the pace of the leaders and was well beaten at the line. It isn't exactly that he was found out by the rise in class but he had to contend with two top class horses at the front end of the result. With lesser horses than the first two in contention for his next Class 3 handicap, he should continue to progress.
The "real" Flat season for horses begins tomorrow with Newmarket's Craven meeting - though in my experience the "real" Flat season for punters doesn't start until York's Dante meeting in May. It's a tasty card with classic hopefuls, high class maidens, the best 2-Y-O race of the season so far, and promising high class handicappers on show. It will be a very informative day.
The opening maiden sees the debuts of some intrestingly bred horses. Native Ruler (1-50) son of an Oaks winner and a Group 1 winner and half brother to a St Leger winner, has been high on the list of likely Newmarket victors for a few weeks after sparkling on the gallops. He's even been mentioned as a potential Derby winner. While I would accept he could win well, Wednesday, I can't help feeling that Henry Cecil has a much more likely candidate for the Derby in Father Time who has also been impressing in his morning work. As I said yesterday, it is not usually recommended that you second guess Henry Cecil, but Native Ruler has to be in the class of Lammtarra to achieve a Derby win. Lammtarra won a Listed race at Newbury on his debut as a 2-Y-O and was not really considered for his Derby seasonal debut win (14/1). Though it has to be said that the 2, 3 and 4-Y-O generation of 1994/5 can never be regarded as the best in history. It also has to be said that if anyone can get the horse to win a Derby, it is surely Henry Cecil - one of my all time favourite trainers.
Fantasia puts her Guineas prospects on the line in the Nell Gwyn (4-10). Though I think she should win, there are a couple or three highly promising fillies in the race. Summer Fete is one. She progressed well last season ending up winning a Newbury Listed race. If she has wintered well, she could have improved enough to bridge the gap between her and Fantasia (on a collateral form line through Seradim). However far she has progressed since last season, she could be the one for the forecast.
Have a Good Wednesday.
There were six (4) and (5) graded races, Tuesday. Two were won by the clear top rated, two by the 2nd top rated (one of them joint) and two were unsuccessful. (You can either subscribe to 4-5 Dutch HERE or you can monitor the results in action for seven days by registering HERE .)
It would seem that Sana Abel hasn't shown too much at home if the betting was anything to go by. Opening at 9/2 and drifting to 8/1, the negative vibes seemed to be right as she came under pressure pretty early in the race. But she responded well and finished like a future winner, being beaten just about a length. There were some nice words about some of her rivals pre-race with hints of progression up the racing levels. But the proximity of the third, Lonely Star, reduces the form level to Class 2 or 3 handicapping. The next runs will provide more answers. Yet, though Sana Abel was slightly disappointing, she did show promise. It is well known that some horses who show little at home, thrive once they have had racecourse experience. Maybe Sana Abel is such a horse. Her breeding would suggest so since some of her high class siblings (such as Itnab, Haafiz, Shumookh) were beaten in similar class maidens before progressing to win good races. So all is not yet lost. Her next run will tell much more about her latent ability.
At face value the result of the 3-50 almost had me eating my words, but in reality Aakef beat Bouvardia very cosily. To let you know now, I will be backing Bouvardia with confidence next time he runs in a 6f race. Captain Carey was held up as usual but couldn't muster the pace of the leaders and was well beaten at the line. It isn't exactly that he was found out by the rise in class but he had to contend with two top class horses at the front end of the result. With lesser horses than the first two in contention for his next Class 3 handicap, he should continue to progress.
The "real" Flat season for horses begins tomorrow with Newmarket's Craven meeting - though in my experience the "real" Flat season for punters doesn't start until York's Dante meeting in May. It's a tasty card with classic hopefuls, high class maidens, the best 2-Y-O race of the season so far, and promising high class handicappers on show. It will be a very informative day.
The opening maiden sees the debuts of some intrestingly bred horses. Native Ruler (1-50) son of an Oaks winner and a Group 1 winner and half brother to a St Leger winner, has been high on the list of likely Newmarket victors for a few weeks after sparkling on the gallops. He's even been mentioned as a potential Derby winner. While I would accept he could win well, Wednesday, I can't help feeling that Henry Cecil has a much more likely candidate for the Derby in Father Time who has also been impressing in his morning work. As I said yesterday, it is not usually recommended that you second guess Henry Cecil, but Native Ruler has to be in the class of Lammtarra to achieve a Derby win. Lammtarra won a Listed race at Newbury on his debut as a 2-Y-O and was not really considered for his Derby seasonal debut win (14/1). Though it has to be said that the 2, 3 and 4-Y-O generation of 1994/5 can never be regarded as the best in history. It also has to be said that if anyone can get the horse to win a Derby, it is surely Henry Cecil - one of my all time favourite trainers.
Fantasia puts her Guineas prospects on the line in the Nell Gwyn (4-10). Though I think she should win, there are a couple or three highly promising fillies in the race. Summer Fete is one. She progressed well last season ending up winning a Newbury Listed race. If she has wintered well, she could have improved enough to bridge the gap between her and Fantasia (on a collateral form line through Seradim). However far she has progressed since last season, she could be the one for the forecast.
Have a Good Wednesday.
Monday, 13 April 2009
Cut to a Winner
The (4) and (5) graded races were as unspectacular as the racing on offer, Easter Monday. There were twelve such races in all. Eight were won by the top two rated (three clear top rated and five 2nd top rated - three by the joint 2nd top). Four were unsuccessful. (Click HERE to either subscribe or register to monitor them for seven days.)
The ratings held up fairly well giving 50% top two winners (incl joints) providing fifteen clear top rated - a lower figure than envisaged pre-racing.
There are a few interesting races at Yarmouth, Tuesday, not least the 2-30 which marks the debut of Sana Abel. There are some average looking horses in the field, so it will be disappointing if this Oaks entered, half sister to Oaks winner Eswarah doesn't make a winning debut.
Another race which should have a bearing on some top class 3-Y-O handicaps this season is the 3-50 sprint. Aakef was expected to do much better last season but didn't quite do it. Michael Jarvis said he was "a bit of a lad" last season - he ran poorly in the Windsor Castle after getting a bit sweaty at the sight of a couple of choice fillies. So the fact he was gelded over the close season is no surprise. Maybe it will be the making of him. But there are two very promising types in opposition: Bouvardia for my favourite trainer Henry Cecil who is a half brother to the useful Camacho; and Captain Carey who has been progressing well this spring. While Bouvardia will win his share this season, I think this race will be a furlong shorter than he would want - though to second guess Henry Cecil is not usually recommended. Captain Carey is becoming a good horse and is at the top of his form. But I can't help feeling the rise in class will find him out.
Have a good Tuesday.
The ratings held up fairly well giving 50% top two winners (incl joints) providing fifteen clear top rated - a lower figure than envisaged pre-racing.
There are a few interesting races at Yarmouth, Tuesday, not least the 2-30 which marks the debut of Sana Abel. There are some average looking horses in the field, so it will be disappointing if this Oaks entered, half sister to Oaks winner Eswarah doesn't make a winning debut.
Another race which should have a bearing on some top class 3-Y-O handicaps this season is the 3-50 sprint. Aakef was expected to do much better last season but didn't quite do it. Michael Jarvis said he was "a bit of a lad" last season - he ran poorly in the Windsor Castle after getting a bit sweaty at the sight of a couple of choice fillies. So the fact he was gelded over the close season is no surprise. Maybe it will be the making of him. But there are two very promising types in opposition: Bouvardia for my favourite trainer Henry Cecil who is a half brother to the useful Camacho; and Captain Carey who has been progressing well this spring. While Bouvardia will win his share this season, I think this race will be a furlong shorter than he would want - though to second guess Henry Cecil is not usually recommended. Captain Carey is becoming a good horse and is at the top of his form. But I can't help feeling the rise in class will find him out.
Have a good Tuesday.
Sunday, 12 April 2009
Fortune Favours the Smoking Coffee Drinker
Sunday was an interesting day for the ratings. Excusez Moi (jt 2nd top) was the subject of a gamble from 11/1 down to 13/2 and obliged just on the line: Saga De Tercey (clear top rated) was backed into long odds on and also only just got up on the line: it was touch and go whether joint 2nd top Titus Andronicus (9/1) would run after ditching Neil Callan and being walked down to the start. But after the vet gave the all clear, he never looked likely to lose: and Stormhoek was apparently the outsider of Alan King's three runners in Towcester's bumper, but I had him joint 2nd top with his favoured horse and he duly beat that horse to win at 20/1. Seems luck was on my side.
There were just four (4) and (5) graded races, Sunday. Two were won by the clear top rated and one by the clear 2nd top rated. The unsuccessful one was won by the 3rd top (Masterofceremonies) who was slowly away and looked very reluctant to run. But once he became aware he was in a race, he showed amazing speed for a selling plater to win fairly easily. The clear top and 2nd top horses were eventually 2nd and 3rd at respectable distances behind the remarkable winner.
It's been a long day and I am hoping to get some better sleep than I've been getting recently. If I stopped smoking and refrained from drinking coffee heavily most of the day, I might actually get the yearned for restful sleep. But willpower is not my strong point in those two cases.
Whatever, I am looking forward to this week on the Flat. Classic trials come thick and fast at Newmarket and Newbury. The Flat has landed - at last....
There were just four (4) and (5) graded races, Sunday. Two were won by the clear top rated and one by the clear 2nd top rated. The unsuccessful one was won by the 3rd top (Masterofceremonies) who was slowly away and looked very reluctant to run. But once he became aware he was in a race, he showed amazing speed for a selling plater to win fairly easily. The clear top and 2nd top horses were eventually 2nd and 3rd at respectable distances behind the remarkable winner.
It's been a long day and I am hoping to get some better sleep than I've been getting recently. If I stopped smoking and refrained from drinking coffee heavily most of the day, I might actually get the yearned for restful sleep. But willpower is not my strong point in those two cases.
Whatever, I am looking forward to this week on the Flat. Classic trials come thick and fast at Newmarket and Newbury. The Flat has landed - at last....
Sunday, Busy Sunday!
Although the ratings gave five top two winners (incl joints) and both graded (4) races were won by joint 2nd top rated horses, my views on Kempton's artificial track were consolidated. Far too many of the races produced far too many below par performances. The sooner All Weather racing is disbanded the better. It is artificial racing on a par with greyhound racing. The tracks even look like dog tracks and, in the main, both are attended by similar crowds.
There were six graded (4) and (5) races in the UK and all were won by the top two rated: One by the clear top rated and five by the joint 2nd top rated (one of the winners was 2nd top because the original top two were both non runners). (The 4-5 races are now available via subscription HERE or, you can monitor a week's results by registering HERE )
Sunday is very unappealing and I'll be looking at the (4) races to find a bet closer to the race.
This is a short blog, Sunday, because I will be very busy handicapping for seven race meetings, Monday. It's going to be a long day.
There were six graded (4) and (5) races in the UK and all were won by the top two rated: One by the clear top rated and five by the joint 2nd top rated (one of the winners was 2nd top because the original top two were both non runners). (The 4-5 races are now available via subscription HERE or, you can monitor a week's results by registering HERE )
Sunday is very unappealing and I'll be looking at the (4) races to find a bet closer to the race.
This is a short blog, Sunday, because I will be very busy handicapping for seven race meetings, Monday. It's going to be a long day.
Friday, 10 April 2009
Saturday Racing (but not as we know it, Jim)
Well, my day off passed quickly. The last day off since Christmas and the last day off until Christmas. So, true to form, I wasted it. Spent most of the day with a Stella in my right hand and the remote in my other. The day went so quickly, I can only think I must have been enjoying myself. And, though I did nothing of note, I did manage to both catch up on and watch favourite episodes of some of my favourite TV shows (Trailer Park Boys, The Office (American), Ideal, and Red Dwarf). Bliss....
Saturday looks more like a mid-winter-mid-week sort of day. And while Kempton has higher grade racing than usual for the All Weather, I am not as enthusiastic as I should be. This is mainly because my absolute least favourite racecourse is Kempton. I prefer Fakenham and Fontwell many times more than the very poor, very unattractive, and frequently unpredictable Kempton surface.
There is no Fillies Guineas Trial this year but the Easter Stakes remains. For those of you who actually like Kempton, there are a couple of fairly interesting horses running Saturday. Scuffle in the 2-40 Listed race (replacement for the Masaka) and Saint Arch in the 3-10 Easter Stakes.
Scuffle took some notable scalps (in the context of today's race) when gaining a hat trick last summer and looked as though she would prosper this year. Though she disappointed in her last race in October (probably unsuited by the tacky ground) she has a lot in her favour today. There are, of course a handful of dangers but they are all more exposed than her. Scuffle is relatively unexposed and only normal winter improvement should see her win - notwithstanding the unpredictability of Kempton's track.
Saint Arch is a typical unexposed Mark Johnston horse, big, strong and full of scope. He was impressive when he won here two weks ago and, unlike almost every other All Weather horse, looks likely to rise to higher levels. The massive danger here is Captain Ramius who is unbeaten at the track and already has a listed win to his credit (at Dundalk). But it was very hard not to be impressed by Saint Arch's win last time. These should fight out the finish with Shampagne and Sohcahtoa ready to pounce if Kempton's track makes this a ridiculous form race - as it has far too many times in the past. But if you like to bet at Kempton, Scuffle and Saint Arch should run well for you.
Elsewhere, it is all NH and not very inspiring. Jorveybrook should perform well in Carlisle's 4-30 but there is an each way teaser in the 3-25: Royal Mackintosh. He is a consistent stayer who has won his share and has an excellent record at Carlisle (form figures at the track 11215). The only disappointing race he's run at the track came on heavy after a hard race the time before, so he can be excused that run. Though the balance of his form indicates he prefers give in the ground, he has run excellent races on good and good to firm. And he's had a good rest since that poorish run. I think he can gain a place in a very open race.
For those of you who may not know, there are also two Derbies and a Derby trial Saturday.
In the USA, Keeneland's Bluegrass Stakes (10-15pm) looks pretty open to me with half a dozen horses in with a chance. The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park (11-41pm) seems a more straightforward duel between Win Willy and Old Fashioned. Win Willy produced a big shock at 56/1 when overturning the 2/5 favourite Old Fashioned over course and distance last time. Normally, you'd expect the form to be freakish and readily overturnable. But the way Win Willy actually won, suggests he is capable of confirming the two and a quarter length win - despite being 5lbs worse off this time.
For early birds there is the Australian Derby from Randwick on ATR at 6-40 am Saturday morning. This may not be as clear cut as the betting might suggest. Nonetheless, it will not surprise me if the first three in the Rosehill Guineas filled the same 1,2,3 positions here Metal Bender, Sousa, and Rock Kingdom.
Have a good Saturday.
Saturday looks more like a mid-winter-mid-week sort of day. And while Kempton has higher grade racing than usual for the All Weather, I am not as enthusiastic as I should be. This is mainly because my absolute least favourite racecourse is Kempton. I prefer Fakenham and Fontwell many times more than the very poor, very unattractive, and frequently unpredictable Kempton surface.
There is no Fillies Guineas Trial this year but the Easter Stakes remains. For those of you who actually like Kempton, there are a couple of fairly interesting horses running Saturday. Scuffle in the 2-40 Listed race (replacement for the Masaka) and Saint Arch in the 3-10 Easter Stakes.
Scuffle took some notable scalps (in the context of today's race) when gaining a hat trick last summer and looked as though she would prosper this year. Though she disappointed in her last race in October (probably unsuited by the tacky ground) she has a lot in her favour today. There are, of course a handful of dangers but they are all more exposed than her. Scuffle is relatively unexposed and only normal winter improvement should see her win - notwithstanding the unpredictability of Kempton's track.
Saint Arch is a typical unexposed Mark Johnston horse, big, strong and full of scope. He was impressive when he won here two weks ago and, unlike almost every other All Weather horse, looks likely to rise to higher levels. The massive danger here is Captain Ramius who is unbeaten at the track and already has a listed win to his credit (at Dundalk). But it was very hard not to be impressed by Saint Arch's win last time. These should fight out the finish with Shampagne and Sohcahtoa ready to pounce if Kempton's track makes this a ridiculous form race - as it has far too many times in the past. But if you like to bet at Kempton, Scuffle and Saint Arch should run well for you.
Elsewhere, it is all NH and not very inspiring. Jorveybrook should perform well in Carlisle's 4-30 but there is an each way teaser in the 3-25: Royal Mackintosh. He is a consistent stayer who has won his share and has an excellent record at Carlisle (form figures at the track 11215). The only disappointing race he's run at the track came on heavy after a hard race the time before, so he can be excused that run. Though the balance of his form indicates he prefers give in the ground, he has run excellent races on good and good to firm. And he's had a good rest since that poorish run. I think he can gain a place in a very open race.
For those of you who may not know, there are also two Derbies and a Derby trial Saturday.
In the USA, Keeneland's Bluegrass Stakes (10-15pm) looks pretty open to me with half a dozen horses in with a chance. The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park (11-41pm) seems a more straightforward duel between Win Willy and Old Fashioned. Win Willy produced a big shock at 56/1 when overturning the 2/5 favourite Old Fashioned over course and distance last time. Normally, you'd expect the form to be freakish and readily overturnable. But the way Win Willy actually won, suggests he is capable of confirming the two and a quarter length win - despite being 5lbs worse off this time.
For early birds there is the Australian Derby from Randwick on ATR at 6-40 am Saturday morning. This may not be as clear cut as the betting might suggest. Nonetheless, it will not surprise me if the first three in the Rosehill Guineas filled the same 1,2,3 positions here Metal Bender, Sousa, and Rock Kingdom.
Have a good Saturday.
Wednesday, 8 April 2009
Hoh Hoh Hoh No!
Hoh Hoh Hoh had a good chance on form but I dismissed it because of its inconsistency. But the thing about inconsistent horses is that they run well or win when you don't expect it and in the process make you look a fool. That, as they say, is racing. It was a very disappointing race overall. Neither Judd Street or Strike Up The Band ran to their best and (apologies here to connections), when Pawan runs so well in a comparable race, then the form is always suspect. But, moving on.....
There were five (4) and (5) graded races, Wednesday. Two were unsuccessful, one was won by the top rated horse (top because of non runners), and two were won by the 2nd top rated both of which were joint rated.
I have a day off tomorrow. Yipeee...
There were five (4) and (5) graded races, Wednesday. Two were unsuccessful, one was won by the top rated horse (top because of non runners), and two were won by the 2nd top rated both of which were joint rated.
I have a day off tomorrow. Yipeee...
Up The Street!
The six (4) and (5) graded races did okay, Tuesday. The only (5) race was won by the easily selected Greenbridge at long odds on. The other five were (4) graded races, one won by the clear top rated and three by the 2nd top rated - two of them joint rated. The other (4) race was unsuccessful.
After receiving a ton of emails asking if the (4) and (5) races could be made available as a stand alone service, we have put a subscription page up on site. The 4-5 Dutch is slightly cheaper than the full ratings. Nonetheless, we recommend that if you are considering subscribing, it would be best if you went for the full ratings to get the best value. This is the link for you to consider subscription 4-5 Dutch .
Remember, it is always worth your while to fully investigate every service available to you. So, if you don't know if the service is right for you, then you can always read this blog daily to keep informed about their performance before subscribing.
There is a very interesting race at Nottingham, Wednesday. Judd Street, Strike Up The Band and Hoh Hoh Hoh come up against a promising three-year-old Rievaulx World in the 2-30. The three older horses have various bits of collateral form and it has been hard to calculate which will come out best. Judd Street seems the most consistent of the three and has run a couple of stormers in Dubai. His first race here this spring was against the upwardly mobile Aragnil to whom he finished a diminishing 2nd with Strike Up The Band a length or so behind.
I discount Hoh Hoh Hoh on the grounds that he is inconsistent. And, while Rievaulx World is promising, he has a hard task against his elders this early in the season. If he can win this he will be worth following all season. But I think Strike Up The Band will lead and set the race up to enable Judd Street to pounce in the final furlong - I hope....
After receiving a ton of emails asking if the (4) and (5) races could be made available as a stand alone service, we have put a subscription page up on site. The 4-5 Dutch is slightly cheaper than the full ratings. Nonetheless, we recommend that if you are considering subscribing, it would be best if you went for the full ratings to get the best value. This is the link for you to consider subscription 4-5 Dutch .
Remember, it is always worth your while to fully investigate every service available to you. So, if you don't know if the service is right for you, then you can always read this blog daily to keep informed about their performance before subscribing.
There is a very interesting race at Nottingham, Wednesday. Judd Street, Strike Up The Band and Hoh Hoh Hoh come up against a promising three-year-old Rievaulx World in the 2-30. The three older horses have various bits of collateral form and it has been hard to calculate which will come out best. Judd Street seems the most consistent of the three and has run a couple of stormers in Dubai. His first race here this spring was against the upwardly mobile Aragnil to whom he finished a diminishing 2nd with Strike Up The Band a length or so behind.
I discount Hoh Hoh Hoh on the grounds that he is inconsistent. And, while Rievaulx World is promising, he has a hard task against his elders this early in the season. If he can win this he will be worth following all season. But I think Strike Up The Band will lead and set the race up to enable Judd Street to pounce in the final furlong - I hope....
Tuesday, 7 April 2009
Amateurs at the Post
Ten Down let me down. He folded quite tamely when challenged late on.
Monday was a very quiet day for the (4) and (5) graded races - all three being successful. There was one (5) race won by Doeslessthanme - which a monkey could have selected as a (5) race and there were two (4) races won by a clear top rated and a clear 2nd top rated horse.
There was a rather a silly question on the Racing Post website about changing the way you choose a Grand National bet in the wake of Mon Mome's 100/1 success. If you have read my 2nd April blog you'll know why I think this inane question is not worthy of the website or the newspaper. It is a question only amateurs would ever dream of asking. It says a lot of how the Racing Post views its general readership.
Tuesday is a day I will look to leave alone unless I spot something very solid in a (4) graded race close to the off - which I probably will.
Monday was a very quiet day for the (4) and (5) graded races - all three being successful. There was one (5) race won by Doeslessthanme - which a monkey could have selected as a (5) race and there were two (4) races won by a clear top rated and a clear 2nd top rated horse.
There was a rather a silly question on the Racing Post website about changing the way you choose a Grand National bet in the wake of Mon Mome's 100/1 success. If you have read my 2nd April blog you'll know why I think this inane question is not worthy of the website or the newspaper. It is a question only amateurs would ever dream of asking. It says a lot of how the Racing Post views its general readership.
Tuesday is a day I will look to leave alone unless I spot something very solid in a (4) graded race close to the off - which I probably will.
Sunday, 5 April 2009
Un-Blue Monday
A strange Sunday. Nice weather, lousy racing. The ratings did well, as did the (4) and (5) graded races. But there was very little excitement in my bones. I initially wondered why I felt this way but when my brain's synapses slowly connected neurons, I knew the answer.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Turf Flat season begin a couple of weeks ago? I was sure it had....
Nonetheless, a satisfactory day for the ratings and the (4) and (5) grade races. There were nine (4) and (5) races, Sunday, seven of them successful, two not. The successful seven included five clear top rated wins and two clear 2nd top wins.
Monday provides a single turf meeting at Windsor, an All Weather winter season extension at Wolverhampton and a reasonable NH card at Kelso.
It looks a complicated day, betting-wise but I am pinning my hopes on Ten Down in Windsor's 3-50. He's one of the exceptions to my All Weather assertions in that he can run as well on turf as he has done this year on the All Weather. He's improving up to his old modest talent and his sole turf win came at this track and distance when he was a promising early two-year-old. On an upward curve, he meets a field of mainly hold up horses (a couple have led in the past) which should place him at an advantage given the way he won last time (he led from the stalls and won cosily). I expect him to lead all the way and repeat that feat here. I will also be keeping a close eye on two seasonal debutantes with a view to the future (Hereford Boy and Zowington).
Have an un-blue Monday.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Turf Flat season begin a couple of weeks ago? I was sure it had....
Nonetheless, a satisfactory day for the ratings and the (4) and (5) grade races. There were nine (4) and (5) races, Sunday, seven of them successful, two not. The successful seven included five clear top rated wins and two clear 2nd top wins.
Monday provides a single turf meeting at Windsor, an All Weather winter season extension at Wolverhampton and a reasonable NH card at Kelso.
It looks a complicated day, betting-wise but I am pinning my hopes on Ten Down in Windsor's 3-50. He's one of the exceptions to my All Weather assertions in that he can run as well on turf as he has done this year on the All Weather. He's improving up to his old modest talent and his sole turf win came at this track and distance when he was a promising early two-year-old. On an upward curve, he meets a field of mainly hold up horses (a couple have led in the past) which should place him at an advantage given the way he won last time (he led from the stalls and won cosily). I expect him to lead all the way and repeat that feat here. I will also be keeping a close eye on two seasonal debutantes with a view to the future (Hereford Boy and Zowington).
Have an un-blue Monday.
Saturday, 4 April 2009
Sod's Law in Action
Last night I said, "According to the overall record, it is unlikely that the winner of the Grand National will start at over 20/1. But many huge prices do get placed." Well, I suppose I was right. The 100/1 winner was placed first....
That was the start of a horrifying end to Aintree for punters. The last two winners were both 66/1. How the bookies must have prayed for such a day.
As for my each way fancies: Kilbeggan Blade's race ended at the Chair. He made a terrible error at the fence and went backwards thereafter - eventually pulling up. When I saw it second time round, it was a wonder he lasted so long after the blunder.
Black Apalachi was running the exact race he ran when he won the Bechers by a large margin. He made the common Bechers Brook error of landing too steeply. And, though he didn't exactly fall, the laws of inertia kicked in and the jockey had no chance of staying in the saddle.
Interesting to note that Mon Mome had been beaten comfortably by Kilbeggan Blade when they met early this year. Sod's Law in action....
The grade (4) and (5) races did well, Saturday. In the UK there were two (5) graded races, both won by the clear top rated; and six (4) graded races, one unsuccessful. two won by the clear top and three by the 2nd top rated (two of them joint).
In the USA there was one (5) graded race which won; and one (4) graded race which was unsuccessful.
Sunday is the Travelling Circus after the Broadway Musical. It's terrible. There is nothing cast iron to bet overnight. I'll be looking at the (4) and (5) graded races closer to the off. Go HERE to register and monitor the graded races for seven days.
That was the start of a horrifying end to Aintree for punters. The last two winners were both 66/1. How the bookies must have prayed for such a day.
As for my each way fancies: Kilbeggan Blade's race ended at the Chair. He made a terrible error at the fence and went backwards thereafter - eventually pulling up. When I saw it second time round, it was a wonder he lasted so long after the blunder.
Black Apalachi was running the exact race he ran when he won the Bechers by a large margin. He made the common Bechers Brook error of landing too steeply. And, though he didn't exactly fall, the laws of inertia kicked in and the jockey had no chance of staying in the saddle.
Interesting to note that Mon Mome had been beaten comfortably by Kilbeggan Blade when they met early this year. Sod's Law in action....
The grade (4) and (5) races did well, Saturday. In the UK there were two (5) graded races, both won by the clear top rated; and six (4) graded races, one unsuccessful. two won by the clear top and three by the 2nd top rated (two of them joint).
In the USA there was one (5) graded race which won; and one (4) graded race which was unsuccessful.
Sunday is the Travelling Circus after the Broadway Musical. It's terrible. There is nothing cast iron to bet overnight. I'll be looking at the (4) and (5) graded races closer to the off. Go HERE to register and monitor the graded races for seven days.
Friday, 3 April 2009
National Blade
Sandwith just failed to get up and lost by a decreasing margin. I suppose the Place bettors will be happier than me.
The (4) graded races picked up a little, Friday. There were ten such races and seven were successful (four won by the clear top rated and three by the 2nd top rated, one of which was joint).
According to the overall record, it is unlikely that the winner of the Grand National will start at over 20/1. But many huge prices do get placed. On the border of that is one of my two each way fancies.
Kilbeggan Blade is a 20/1 chance that I like. He's been hiding from the bigger obstacles most of the season, his trainer opting for a mainly hurdle preparation for the National. He's done well in that sphere, winning twice and being a disappointing 2nd to an ordinary novice. But I suspect he was only half-cooked when he met defeat. The only time he has run over chases this season was at Sandown in December. He took it up at the last and fought off a host of strong stayers to win by three quarters of a length. A big National fancy, Rambling Minster, was four and a half lengths behind him that day and meets Kilbeggan today on three pounds worse terms - though it has to be admitted that collateral form can be misleading when considering Aintree horses. But he does prefer tracks which don't have too many undulations but have stiff fences. So his jumping shouldn't be a problem and the ground won't bother him because he has run well on it before. If he gets that bit of luck needed to get round Aintree, he has an excellent chance of placing in the first four.
My other each way fancy is Black Apalachi. There's been a lot of talk about his chances fading as each dry day passes. His race history shows his best races have been run with give in the ground and he has never won on anything better than soft. But the light rain forecast for tonight and tomorrow should take the sting out of the turf by racetime. On form and ability he has a very good chance to win. He produced a superb jumping performance when he won the Bechers Chase in November by a very large distance. The going was very different that day (heavy) but at least he has the advantage of proving he can jump the National fences - which was originally doubtful when he fell at the second fence last year. Regardless of ground conditions, I think he will be a good bet to get placed.
Whatever the fate of my fancies, all I really want is for every horse to return to their stable safe and sound.
Have a good Saturday
The (4) graded races picked up a little, Friday. There were ten such races and seven were successful (four won by the clear top rated and three by the 2nd top rated, one of which was joint).
According to the overall record, it is unlikely that the winner of the Grand National will start at over 20/1. But many huge prices do get placed. On the border of that is one of my two each way fancies.
Kilbeggan Blade is a 20/1 chance that I like. He's been hiding from the bigger obstacles most of the season, his trainer opting for a mainly hurdle preparation for the National. He's done well in that sphere, winning twice and being a disappointing 2nd to an ordinary novice. But I suspect he was only half-cooked when he met defeat. The only time he has run over chases this season was at Sandown in December. He took it up at the last and fought off a host of strong stayers to win by three quarters of a length. A big National fancy, Rambling Minster, was four and a half lengths behind him that day and meets Kilbeggan today on three pounds worse terms - though it has to be admitted that collateral form can be misleading when considering Aintree horses. But he does prefer tracks which don't have too many undulations but have stiff fences. So his jumping shouldn't be a problem and the ground won't bother him because he has run well on it before. If he gets that bit of luck needed to get round Aintree, he has an excellent chance of placing in the first four.
My other each way fancy is Black Apalachi. There's been a lot of talk about his chances fading as each dry day passes. His race history shows his best races have been run with give in the ground and he has never won on anything better than soft. But the light rain forecast for tonight and tomorrow should take the sting out of the turf by racetime. On form and ability he has a very good chance to win. He produced a superb jumping performance when he won the Bechers Chase in November by a very large distance. The going was very different that day (heavy) but at least he has the advantage of proving he can jump the National fences - which was originally doubtful when he fell at the second fence last year. Regardless of ground conditions, I think he will be a good bet to get placed.
Whatever the fate of my fancies, all I really want is for every horse to return to their stable safe and sound.
Have a good Saturday
Thursday, 2 April 2009
Avoiding the Bombs
First, I would like to say thank you and rest in peace, Mel In Blue and Exotic Dancer. Two of the, unfortunately, many casualties this racing season. Such events are unavoidable but remind us of the risks horses and jockeys face every day.
I've been trying to find an explanation for today's results but the best I can come up with is that the (4) and (5) graded races "bombed" on Thursday. Out of nine such races only three were successful - and one of those was Bergo at 1/10. And, judging by the way he ran, he'd have been beaten had there been something half decent in the race.
So a bad day at the track, Thursday. And a sad one.
It is, though, sobering to experience such a day. It re-informs you that racing is performed by flesh and blood and can be as subject to the vagaries of fortune as you are subject to fortune (or not) when you duck a wife-propelled dinner plate. Today, I didn't duck....
But a few words about bad results: This is the time when systemites (who I wrote about the other day) begin tinkering with their system rules. Quite soon they discover the tinkering has not worked, so they tinker again, then again. Then they discard the system and create another one, only to go through the same experiences. Eventually, they decide racing is for mugs and go online to play the roulette wheel, or maybe bet on which box the gerbil will enter on Sky channel eight-hundred-and-whatever-other-number....
It is also a critical time for the amateur or "fun punter".
Bad results cause the cranially challenged to inform the less informed of us that racing is fixed and run only for the bookies, who are in league with owners, trainers, jockeys, breeders and greengrocers who deliver cabbage to Lord Feffenpot's mansion. They actually sound as stupid as that last sentence. They go on and on, and on, and on, then back the 11/10 favourite in the 15 runner, two mile handicap over Chepstow's rain soddened track - "just for interest, mind."
Still others try to avoid losing the next day by backing short priced favourites to recover the losses, only to discover about 5-30pm that they have backed three winners but won only three quid. They go back the following day trying to find a few good each way bets to win more money. Again, at about 5-30pm they discover that the 20/1 2nd they backed had returned only the same amount as if they had backed a 6/4 winner with the same sized bet. They then return to the short priced favourites the next day. And so it continues.
The only way to treat a bad results day is to treat it as a professional does. Don't dwell on the losses. Accept them as occassional inevitabilities. Treat the next day's betting the same as you treat every other day's betting. Don't do what far too many do. They ask themselves why they went so wrong and begin to change not only the way they bet but the way they select horses. Changing the way you bet overnight can become as disasterous as the day you're trying not to repeat.
There is nothing wrong with reviewing your selection methods. It is a healthy exercise. But only in the long term. If you decide straightaway that you're going to change your method of selection, the huge danger is there that you'll get more bad results more frequently. That is the nature of willfully trying to steer fortune in your direction. Don't do it.
You should ask yourself only two questions: Why did that losing selection lose? And, why did that winning selection win? It is not advisable to delve too deeply into why a horse lost. Have a look, by all means, but don't get bogged down in it. Why? Because the reason one horse loses can be the exact same reason why another horse won.
Horse A usually runs over 7 furlongs and shows consistent form on good ground. Then it runs over 1m 2f on heavy and scoots up. It wins its next race also on heavy - in which you backed it - with similar ease.
Horse B has the same history and wins in similar circumstances - but it gets beaten easily next time in similar circumstances.
You will probably discover that Horse A is bred to get 1m2f, is sired by a soft ground performer, and has been running at one pace on good and better ground. But Horse B wasn't bred to get the trip - though it did. Also Horse B led unmolested from the front and the others were catching it hand-over-fist in the closing stages but it was so far clear they couldn't catch it in time.
It seems clear that the very best way to continue your betting with confidence is don't change too much the way you have read form to bet before. Don't dwell on, "Why did that selection lose?" Dwell on, "Why did that selection win?"
If you ask too much why your selection lost, you have immediately admitted defeat. You are looking to reverse fortune simply by avoiding the reason you bet that horse. But since the same methods have selected winners before, they will again. If you discard any bit of your method, you are inviting more losers.
But if you continually ask why your selection won, you are immediately looking at positives. Learning from your mistakes is the only way to avoid them in the future. But if you look at your mistakes too deeply and too quickly through a losing selection, you are in danger of creating another mistake that was never there in the first place.
Concentrate on the things that made you bet a winning horse. Then repeat that process in your future bets. You'll still bet losers, but those losers will have fewer mistaken form readings in them. You'll soon find your confidence is boosted by having fewer losers. And those losers already have more positives - positives you have highlighted - and fewer negatives than previous losers.
Be positive at all times. Accept that losers are inevitable. Do not change your selection method overnight. Let it evolve over time. And never, ever think you should back eight horses a day just because there are 24 races on offer.
Update:
On past form, the best time to back Sandwith is in the Spring or Autumn on quickish ground over 5f at Musselburgh. Those conditions are met today in Musselburgh's 2-20. Place bettors will have him on their list, but I expect him to win.
I've been trying to find an explanation for today's results but the best I can come up with is that the (4) and (5) graded races "bombed" on Thursday. Out of nine such races only three were successful - and one of those was Bergo at 1/10. And, judging by the way he ran, he'd have been beaten had there been something half decent in the race.
So a bad day at the track, Thursday. And a sad one.
It is, though, sobering to experience such a day. It re-informs you that racing is performed by flesh and blood and can be as subject to the vagaries of fortune as you are subject to fortune (or not) when you duck a wife-propelled dinner plate. Today, I didn't duck....
But a few words about bad results: This is the time when systemites (who I wrote about the other day) begin tinkering with their system rules. Quite soon they discover the tinkering has not worked, so they tinker again, then again. Then they discard the system and create another one, only to go through the same experiences. Eventually, they decide racing is for mugs and go online to play the roulette wheel, or maybe bet on which box the gerbil will enter on Sky channel eight-hundred-and-whatever-other-number....
It is also a critical time for the amateur or "fun punter".
Bad results cause the cranially challenged to inform the less informed of us that racing is fixed and run only for the bookies, who are in league with owners, trainers, jockeys, breeders and greengrocers who deliver cabbage to Lord Feffenpot's mansion. They actually sound as stupid as that last sentence. They go on and on, and on, and on, then back the 11/10 favourite in the 15 runner, two mile handicap over Chepstow's rain soddened track - "just for interest, mind."
Still others try to avoid losing the next day by backing short priced favourites to recover the losses, only to discover about 5-30pm that they have backed three winners but won only three quid. They go back the following day trying to find a few good each way bets to win more money. Again, at about 5-30pm they discover that the 20/1 2nd they backed had returned only the same amount as if they had backed a 6/4 winner with the same sized bet. They then return to the short priced favourites the next day. And so it continues.
The only way to treat a bad results day is to treat it as a professional does. Don't dwell on the losses. Accept them as occassional inevitabilities. Treat the next day's betting the same as you treat every other day's betting. Don't do what far too many do. They ask themselves why they went so wrong and begin to change not only the way they bet but the way they select horses. Changing the way you bet overnight can become as disasterous as the day you're trying not to repeat.
There is nothing wrong with reviewing your selection methods. It is a healthy exercise. But only in the long term. If you decide straightaway that you're going to change your method of selection, the huge danger is there that you'll get more bad results more frequently. That is the nature of willfully trying to steer fortune in your direction. Don't do it.
You should ask yourself only two questions: Why did that losing selection lose? And, why did that winning selection win? It is not advisable to delve too deeply into why a horse lost. Have a look, by all means, but don't get bogged down in it. Why? Because the reason one horse loses can be the exact same reason why another horse won.
Horse A usually runs over 7 furlongs and shows consistent form on good ground. Then it runs over 1m 2f on heavy and scoots up. It wins its next race also on heavy - in which you backed it - with similar ease.
Horse B has the same history and wins in similar circumstances - but it gets beaten easily next time in similar circumstances.
You will probably discover that Horse A is bred to get 1m2f, is sired by a soft ground performer, and has been running at one pace on good and better ground. But Horse B wasn't bred to get the trip - though it did. Also Horse B led unmolested from the front and the others were catching it hand-over-fist in the closing stages but it was so far clear they couldn't catch it in time.
It seems clear that the very best way to continue your betting with confidence is don't change too much the way you have read form to bet before. Don't dwell on, "Why did that selection lose?" Dwell on, "Why did that selection win?"
If you ask too much why your selection lost, you have immediately admitted defeat. You are looking to reverse fortune simply by avoiding the reason you bet that horse. But since the same methods have selected winners before, they will again. If you discard any bit of your method, you are inviting more losers.
But if you continually ask why your selection won, you are immediately looking at positives. Learning from your mistakes is the only way to avoid them in the future. But if you look at your mistakes too deeply and too quickly through a losing selection, you are in danger of creating another mistake that was never there in the first place.
Concentrate on the things that made you bet a winning horse. Then repeat that process in your future bets. You'll still bet losers, but those losers will have fewer mistaken form readings in them. You'll soon find your confidence is boosted by having fewer losers. And those losers already have more positives - positives you have highlighted - and fewer negatives than previous losers.
Be positive at all times. Accept that losers are inevitable. Do not change your selection method overnight. Let it evolve over time. And never, ever think you should back eight horses a day just because there are 24 races on offer.
Update:
On past form, the best time to back Sandwith is in the Spring or Autumn on quickish ground over 5f at Musselburgh. Those conditions are met today in Musselburgh's 2-20. Place bettors will have him on their list, but I expect him to win.
Wednesday, 1 April 2009
Lucky Hunt
Well, So Brash didn't win but Dreams Jewel did to provide a tiny profit. No one can criticise a conditional rider because he is learning his trade. But I strongly suspect that if So Brash had been ridden by a fully fledged jockey, the result would have been very different.
There were no (5) graded races but there were five (4) graded races on Wednesday. All five were successful - two won by the clear top rated and three by the second top rated - one joint, and one promoted to clear 2nd top because the original 2nd top was a non runner. [Register HERE to monitor the (4) and (5) graded results for 7 days.]
Also, the last two races at each afternoon meeting were won by the clear top rated horse. A good day overall.
The build up to the Grand National starts Thursday and I will be talking about that race in Friday's blog. But tomorrow the Hunter chasers get first crack at the Aintree fences in the 3-45. It is always a difficult race to assess because many of the runners perform best over longer distances. It is usually a race we leave alone but Christy Beamish looks to be a good bet to place. He won this race last year and the year before he ran second in it.
In the big Juvenile hurdle (2-35) Starluck is our hope. Strictly on the book, he has something to find with Walk On. But that was his first race of the year and he didn't look happy on Cheltenham's unique track. He should be much better on this tighter, flatter track, with the ground also being to his liking. We expect him to be well backed in the run up to the race, so I suggest taking 3/1 if you can get it.
Worst Joke of the Day:
A drunk staggers up to a man who is looking under his car bonnet, and asks, "Washh up mate?"
The man looks up and says, "Piston broke."
The drunk stumbles off saying, "Me too, mate. Me too."
Have a good Thursday.
There were no (5) graded races but there were five (4) graded races on Wednesday. All five were successful - two won by the clear top rated and three by the second top rated - one joint, and one promoted to clear 2nd top because the original 2nd top was a non runner. [Register HERE to monitor the (4) and (5) graded results for 7 days.]
Also, the last two races at each afternoon meeting were won by the clear top rated horse. A good day overall.
The build up to the Grand National starts Thursday and I will be talking about that race in Friday's blog. But tomorrow the Hunter chasers get first crack at the Aintree fences in the 3-45. It is always a difficult race to assess because many of the runners perform best over longer distances. It is usually a race we leave alone but Christy Beamish looks to be a good bet to place. He won this race last year and the year before he ran second in it.
In the big Juvenile hurdle (2-35) Starluck is our hope. Strictly on the book, he has something to find with Walk On. But that was his first race of the year and he didn't look happy on Cheltenham's unique track. He should be much better on this tighter, flatter track, with the ground also being to his liking. We expect him to be well backed in the run up to the race, so I suggest taking 3/1 if you can get it.
Worst Joke of the Day:
A drunk staggers up to a man who is looking under his car bonnet, and asks, "Washh up mate?"
The man looks up and says, "Piston broke."
The drunk stumbles off saying, "Me too, mate. Me too."
Have a good Thursday.
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