Hamish's Day

What a difference a blowing wind over soft ground and sand can make. If you got through unscathed, Friday, you deserve a medal. The combined ratings held up well under the onslaught and the handicap ratings were only slightly below par for the top two rates.

On Saturday, Hamish Mcgonagall (1-55 Haydock) has been running some fine races without managing to get his head in front. He's come very close on a few occassions and Saturday looks to be one of his better chances. He returns to the softened ground he last won on - which he meets for the first time in 2009 - and has a great chance to be in the mix again. Northern Dare and Blue Jack are the obvious dangers, but watch out for an improved run from Hamish's stablemate Captain Dunne, who loves the soft.

They can put on all the group and listed races they like at Kempton but I won't be tempted to dabble until they return it to turf. I'd rather bet on horses running over a shingle beach. Had it been turf I would be betting All The Aces and Balnagore. But it isn't. So I won't be - regardless of if they win or not. If they do, I won't be claiming them as winners.

Back at Haydock, Hits Only Vic (2-55) meets his favoured ground and should go very well despite having top weight. He can take this before moving on to the Cesarewitch.

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was 71% following Thursday's 76% following Wednesday's 59% following Tuesday's 89%, Monday's 75% and Sunday's 90% -- an in-running weekly average of 76.7%.

There were only two from ten successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Friday, giving a winning top two strike rate of just 25% following Thursday's 86%, Wednesday's 67%, Tuesday's 100%, Monday's 80% and Sunday's 75% -- an in-running weekly average of 72.1%.

The full top three summary for Friday:

The clear top rated winning strike rate of the (4) and (5) graded races Friday was a very disappointing 12.5% (one winner only) following Thursday's 71%, Wednesday's 50%, Tuesday's 0% (no wins), Monday's 50% and Sunday's 50% -- an in-running weekly average of 39%.

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 23%. Best SP was 7/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 45%. Best 2nd top SP was 8/1
Top three strike rate was 61%. Best SP was 25/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was a very poor 13%. Best SP was 5/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 32%. Best SP was 7/1
Top three strike rate was 45%. Best SP was 25/1
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses (in either service) in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three (in either service) in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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