Panama's the Kid

What began looking like a debacle Monday (with a very bad start at Newcastle), turned into a reasonable enough day for our main handicap ratings. But the (4) and (5) races did badly. And the recently added speed ratings continued on their inconsistent way and need to be looked at with a hard eye.

On Tuesday, The Panama Kid (3-00 Sedgefield) begins his chasing career. He has always promised to be a better chaser than hurdler - though he was a fairly useful novice hurdler. I rarely recommend betting novice chase debutantes but if he attracts any money I will probably have a small stake on him.

Elsewhere, I think Shibhan (2-45 Lingfield) has a good chance to supplement her Chester nursery win off a mark only 4lbs higher. I was impressed by her turn of foot at Chester and I envisage a similar strong finish on Tuesday.

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was a low 59% following Sunday's 71% - an in-running weekly average of 65%

There was just one from four successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday, giving a winning top two strike rate of only 25% following Sunday's 80% - an in-running weekly average of 52.5%

The full top three summary for Monday:

The clear top rated winning strike rate of the (4) and (5) graded races Monday was 25% (one win) following Sunday's 60% - an in-running weekly average of 42.5%

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 24%. Best top rated SP was 9/2
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 57%. Best 2nd top SP was 11/2
Top three strike rate was 62%. Best 3rd top SP was 9/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was a poor 14%. Best top rated SP was 11/2
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 38%. Best 2nd top SP was 9/2
Top three strike rate was 43%. Best 3rd top SP was 4/1
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses (in either service) in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three (in either service) in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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