Confessional Tuesday

A fairly slow start to the week and, though it's not quite the end of summer, Monday had a very autumnal feel about it. Horses going in their coats and some looking as if they have had enough of this long 2009 season. Fortunately, the main handicap ratings held up extremely well and the speed ratings looked a lot more acceptable - though improving the latter's consistency is an ongoing task.

Watch Chain proved our assessment right that his last run should be ignored handicap-wise. Though we still top rated him, it looked as though he should have been placed with a clear run. The irony is that the 2nd top rated, On The Piste, won at 33/1.

Nothing very attractive for Tuesday at first glance, but Confessional (2-30 Haydock) should continue his recent improvement and lose his maiden tag.

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was 59% following Sunday's 75% - an in-running weekly average of 67%

There were four from ten successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday, giving a top two strike rate of 40% following Sunday's 33% - an in-running weekly average of a very low 36.5%

The Select Pick dutching races were very disappointing Monday producing two losing dutch races for a 0% return following Sunday's successful dutching strike rate of 50% - an in-running weekly average of another very low 25%

The full top three summary for Monday:

The clear top rated winning strike rate of the (4) and (5) graded races Monday was 30% following Sunday's 33% - an in-running weekly average of 31.5%

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 32%. Best top rated SP was 4/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 50%. Best 2nd top SP was 33/1
Top three strike rate was 55%. Best 3rd top SP was 8/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 32%. Best top rated SP was 4/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 41%. Best 2nd top SP was 4/1
Top three strike rate was 50%. Best 3rd top SP was 11/1
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses (in either service) in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three (in either service) in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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