A Very Promising Apprentice

A good start to the week, Sunday with the Speed Ratings providing a 40% clear top rated winners including Seraglio 20/1, Destinys Dream 12/1 and Invincible Force 9/1.

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Sunday was an excellent 85% (only three races failed to highlight a possible top three winner).

There were two from just three successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Sunday, giving a 67% winning top two strike rate The clear top rated winning strike rate, Sunday, was also 67%.

The full top three summary for Sunday:

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 30%. Best top rated SP was 10/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 60%. Best 2nd top SP was 9/1
Top three strike rate was 65%. Best 3rd top SP was 12/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 40%. Best top rated SP was 20/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 55%. Best 2nd top SP was 8/1
Top three strike rate was 75%. Best 3rd top SP was 16/1
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses (in either service) in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three (in either service) in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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Though still a 7lb claiming apprentice, J P Sullivan is quite an experienced rider. Having ridden eight winners in Ireland he came over to England this year and has impressed me as a rider with a good future. On Monday he reunites with recent winning partner Hawkeyethenoo (8-45 Carlisle) who can be a very hard puller. That could be problematic with most apprentices but James rode him very well when they won at Beverley - despite running freely in 2nd time blinkers.

The drop in trip shouldn't be too much of a problem because of the very stiff Carlisle finish and I can see the partnership blossoming further tomorrow. The more I look for dangers, the more I am faced with disappointing sorts. It is a very poor race that will not take a lot of winning for any horse willing to put its best foot forward. Haweyethenoo looks to be that horse.