Friday, 14 August 2009

Top Handicap Mark

A good day all round, Friday, except for the fact that the top rated of the (4) and (5) graded races dipped in performance.

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was 80% following Thursday's 62%, Wednesday's 63%, Tuesday's 69%, Monday's 72% and Sunday's 84% (only three races failed to yield a top three winner) - an in-running weekly average of just over 71%

There were nine from ten successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Friday giving a winning top two strike rate of 90% following Thursday's 77%, Wednesday's 71% , Tuesday's low 28%, Monday's 71% and Sunday's 33% - an in-running weekly average of 67%

The full top three summary for Friday:

The clear top rated winning strike rate of the (4) and (5) graded races Friday was just 20% following Thursday's 67%, Wednesday's 43%, Tuesday's poor 14% (one long odds on winner), Monday's 71% and Sunday's 0% (no wins) - an in-running weekly average of a disappointing 36% .

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 33%. Best top rated SP was 9/2
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 63%. Best 2nd top SP was 11/2
Top three strike rate was 80%. Best 3rd top SP was 12/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 25%. Best top rated SP was 9/2
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 55%. Best 2nd top SP was 12/1
Top three strike rate was 58%. Best 3rd top SP was 7/2
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses (in either service) in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three (in either service) in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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Saturday is its usual competitive self. The highlight is Newbury's Group 2 Hungerford Stakes (3-10), which is surely the opportunity for Evasive to get his first 2009 win. The main danger as I see it is the hugely improving Border Patrol.

The annual Ripon stampede goes at 3-55 and is not a race for the faint hearted. Second top Speed Rated Skhilling Spirit will be a danger to all if he decides to come out of the traps. David Barron has a fantastic record in this race and will have been easing him along to keep him as fresh as possible. You will know your fate with this horse as soon as the stalls open. He has a low draw and, if low draws become the best draws, Tamagin will be hard to peg back from box 2.

There are loads of horses with a chance but I can't overlook the races the handicap top rated Markab has run in this season's two major sprint handicaps. He looks good enough to carry my money -- with Skhillig Spirit a dangerous looking each way saver.

Be careful out there, Saturday.

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