Red Foray

The (4) and (5) graded races recovered well enough from Tuesday's messy performance, and the speed ratings approached something closer to acceptable results.

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Wednesday was 63% following Tuesday's 69%, Monday's 72% and Sunday's 84% (only three races failed to yield a top three winner) - an in-running weekly average of 72%

There were five from seven successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday giving a winning top two strike rate of 71% following Tuesday's low 28%, Monday's 71% and Sunday's 33% - an in-running weekly average of just under 51%

The full top three summary for Wednesday:

The clear top rated winning strike rate of the (4) and (5) graded races Wednesday was 43% following Tuesday's poor 14% (one long odds on winner), Monday's 71% and Sunday's 0% (no wins) - an in-running weekly average of a low 32% .

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 23%. Best top rated SP was 15/2
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 41%. Best 2nd top SP was 8/1
Top three strike rate was 51%. Best 3rd top SP was 16/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 18%. Best top rated SP was 15/2
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 41%. Best 2nd top SP was 25/1
Top three strike rate was 51%. Best 3rd top SP was 10/1
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses (in either service) in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three (in either service) in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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William Arnold (4-25 Beverley) is 6lbs out of the handicap but 16lbs well in according to his new handicap rating following a massive leap forward last time. I'm not so sure he is a 16lb better horse than he apparently was, but he will be hard to keep out of the first three. I cannot believe he will start close to the 10/1 overnight Racing Post forecast. He looks a banker place bet.... Where have I heard that before.....

Big field, low grade handicaps at tracks like Chepstow are not really my cup of tea, but I cannot resist making a rare foray into the depths with Red Current (8-20). Chepstow is a course hard to master for many horses with its undulations and stiff straight. But Red Current seems to perform there better than most horses. At the overnight forecast of 14/1 he looks fair each way material.

Have a good day.