Perfect Saturday

The Speed Ratings pinpointed some good winners, Friday. The defection of Ricardo's Choice in Worcester's 4-20 meant that Chinara was clear top speed rated. It duly obliged at 22/1. In the final Worcester race, they didn't quite match that but still pinpointed the clear 3rd top winner Alverstone at 25/1.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was 82% following Thursday's staggering 92% (only three races failed to yield a top three winner), Wednesday's lowish 64%, Tuesday's 85%, Monday's 77% and Sunday's 85% - an in running weekly average of just under 81%.

There were six from nine successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Friday, giving a winning top two strike rate of 67% following Thursday's 91%, Wednesday's 75%, Tuesday's 60% , Monday's 50% and Sunday's 67% - an in running weekly average of just over 68%

The full top three summary for Friday:

The clear top rated winning strike rate of the (4) and (5) graded races Friday was 44% following Thursday's 70%, Wednesday's 50%, Tuesday's 20%, Monday's 25% and Sunday's 67% - an in running weekly average of 46%.

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 31%. Best top rated SP was 8/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 54%. Best 2nd top SP was 9/1
Top three strike rate was 69%. Best 3rd top SP was 12/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 23%. Best top rated SP was 22/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 46%. Best 2nd top SP was 11/4
Top three strike rate was 59%. Best 3rd top SP was 25/1
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses (in either service) in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three (in either service) in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

I won't be considering any bet at Ascot. The Shergar Cup is not our idea of racing. It is better left to Auntie Beeb and her grandchildren..................

Now, proper racing takes place at Redcar, Haydock, Newmarket, Lingfield and Ayr. At first glance those meetings look as appealing betting-wise as Ascot's Blaydon races. But I am hopeful I have whittled down three possible bets.

There should be enough market activity surrounding Jilly Why to ensure Capone (4-25 Haydock) doesn't start too short. He has progressed well the past few weeks and connections will want to win this before his re-assessed handicap mark kicks in. He looked very professional when winning comfortably at Yarmouth on Wednesday and really hasn't a great deal to beat today. Only Jilly Why rates a danger in my mind and so he will be a bet at 2/1 - hopefully bigger if the "Spencer effect" kicks in with Jilly Why.

Perfect Shot (1-55 Newmarket) is a typical Dunlop staying handicapper who is improving slowly as the season progresses. He suffered a defeat on merit last time out but this extra couple of furlongs should help him resume the winning habit. There are quite a few in-form horses posing a big danger. But apart from fellow 3-Y-O Longboat Key, they are fairly well exposed. Pseudonym and Swordsman look the ones most likely if the 3-Y-O's falter.

Taqdeyr (3-35 Newmarket) is only just above mid-table on our handicap but is 2nd top on speed. At first glance he seemed to let us down badly the other week when I put him up as a blog selection. But a reviewing of the race shows that he ran quite a lot better than his finishing position would indicate. He ran far too keenly early on and that put paid to his chances when the foot was put on the pedal. If he settles better this time he has a big chance. A place bet would be in order.

Have a good day.