The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was 82% following Thursday's 75%, Wednesday's 75%, Tuesday's 71%, Monday's 75% and Sunday's 69% -- an in running weekly average of 74.5%.
There were ten from eleven successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Friday -- a 91% winning top two strike rate (there were five clear top rated winners) following Thursday's 100%, Wednesday's 87.5%, Tuesday's 57%, Monday's 50% and Sunday's 40% - an in running weekly average of 71% winning top two strike rate achieved despite a poor start to the week.
The full top three summary for Friday:
HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 26%. Best top rated SP was 15/2
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 56%. Best 2nd top SP was 12/1
Top three strike rate was 69%. Best 3rd top SP was 5/1
SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 18%. Best top rated SP was 6/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 36%. Best 2nd top SP was 10/1
Top three strike rate was 56%. Best 3rd top SP was 14/1
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses (in either service) in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three (in either service) in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.
If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.
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Saturday has a lot of quality horse racing headlined by Ascot's King George at 4-25. Michael Stoute and Aidan O'Brien may trade places for a day as I expect the Stoute horses to dominate the finish. I envisage a Conduit/Tartan Bearer one-two.
Taqdeyr looks a very interesting horse for Ascot's 3-50 Heritage handicap. He's rated only fifth on form and third on time but he represents good each way value. I expect Secret Society, Roaring Forte, and Captain Brilliance to fight out the finish with Crackdown and Taqdeyr racing wide of those three and heavily involved in the closing stages. At 16/1 overnight (18/1 in places), I think Taqdeyr is worth a small interest.
On Saturday night at Lingfield (Turf), Kuanyao should make light of the 7lbs punishment the handicapper meted out for his easy handicap debut win at Salisbury earlier this month. That could turn out to be lenient because, of those he easily beat, three have come out and won (Sister Clement, Fyelehk and Eye For The Girls) and the other two horses in the first six that day subsequently ran a good second (Vamos) and a close up fourth (Ponting). Kuanyao looks the best bet of the day - despite the fact that The Scorching Wind is expected to run much better than he did last time.
Have a profitable Saturday.
Saturday, 25 July 2009
Trading Places
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