Saturday's Secrets

I have replied to the comment in yesterday's Globeform posting.

Apologies for yesterday's lack of update. Several issues prevented my posting a blog. Nothing dramatic happened. It was simply that Thursday's hours ran well into Friday's and I couldn't quite find enough time to post. It is a rare event - except for Sunday's racing. So it shouldn't happen too frequently in the future. I'll do a quick summary for Thursday's and Friday's results.

You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was 73% following Thursday's 78%, Wednesday's 59%, Tuesday's 67%, Monday's 74% and Sunday's 84%, an in-running weekly average of 72.5%.

There were Nine (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday producing a 78% top two winning strike rate. Friday was extremely bad. Just three races from ten being successful - a very poor 33% success rate.

The full top three summary for Thursday and Friday was:

THURSDAY

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 28%. Best top rated SP was 5/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 50%. Best 2nd top SP was 8/1
Top three strike rate was 69%. Best 3rd top SP was 11/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 25%. Best top rated SP was 5/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 38%. Best 2nd top SP was 8/1
Top three strike rate was 50%. Best 3rd top SP was 8/1

FRIDAY

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 27%. Best top rated SP was 10/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 49%. Best 2nd top SP was 12/1
Top three strike rate was 62%. Best 3rd top SP was 12/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 19%. Best top rated SP was 11/2
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 38%. Best 2nd top SP was 20/1
Top three strike rate was 46%. Best 3rd top SP was 10/1


note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

On Saturday the racing is a fiercely competitive as usual with some tight non handicaps and wide open handicaps.

It seems the draw has eroded the chances of my early John Smith's Cup fancy, Moonquake (3-10 York)who will occupy the widest stall of all (22). So I will leave that race alone. I'm not usually fazed by draw bias, but the high draw over this trip has never been ideal.

Dick Turpin (6-20 Salisbury) impressed me a lot when he won his debut with ease. The only thing that would stop me betting him would be if he went lower than evens.

If Secret Society (1-50 Ascot) hasn't left his form behind at Royal Ascot after his good but hard run there, he should be able to take this race from a host of progressive horses.

My each way play on Saturday is Esoterica (2-35 York). His last run can be ignored as he didn't appear suited to Chester's tight track. He is 8lbs higher than his last win two runs ago at Ayr where he beat a subsequent winner (himself raised 6lbs for that subsequent win) with a fair amount of ease so the 8lbs rise shouldn't hinder him too much. On overall form he has to produce a career best to win. But his trainer has got such a tune out of him this season, he obviously thinks the headgear the horse has worn for all his wins is now not needed (the intimation here being that I certainly hope his trainer isn't discarding them to help him get his handicap mark reduced....... Surely, he wouldn't be that obvious.). Notwithstanding that possibility, though, he should be there at the end and certainly warrants each way interest.

Have a lucky Saturday