Pic A Winner

Considering there was a huge grade change in the ovenight ground at most of Friday's courses, the ratings held up well.

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was 64% following Thursday's 79%, Wednesday's 62.5%, Tuesday's 70%, Monday's meagre 56.5%, and Sunday's 67%, an in running weekly average of 66.5%.

There were seven from nine successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Friday - a 77% winning top two strike rate. The in running weekly average is 72% (Thursday was 71%, Wednesday was 50%, Tuesday was 63%; Monday was 100%; Sunday was 71%.)

The full top three summary for Friday was:

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 33%. Best top rated SP was 8/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 49%. Best 2nd top SP was 8/1
Top three strike rate was 56%. Best 3rd top SP was 12/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 31%. Best top rated SP was 8/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 49%. Best 2nd top SP was 9/2
Top three strike rate was 56%. Best 3rd top SP was 14/1
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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So far as I can see Blue Monday (3-55 Newbury) has quite a few things going for him tomorrow. He always runs well on his seasonal debut, he runs well on the expected ground, he has never been out of the first two in four runs at Newbury and his trainer's horses have begun to show a little bit of form. That's enough ticked boxes for me.

Last winter, Picaroon (3-10 Market Rasen) struck me as a progressive hurdler to watch out for in the 2009/10 NH season. He is starting a bit earlier than I expected but seems to be reasonably weighted to make a winning re-appearance on Saturday. His trainer has been in good form and has a very good strike rate in Market Rasen hurdles. I am sure he'll turn up as race fit as he can be. He shouldn't be inconvenienced by extra rainfall overnight.

My usual each way fun bet on Saturday is Schoolboy Champ (Super Sprint Newbury 3-25). I have always been a fan of small trainers who produce impressive debut winning 2-Y-O's. Patrick Morris and this horse fit that category. The bare form of his win can be crabbed because those he beat have done nothing to advertise the form to any degree. But he won easily in a very good time for the class of race. He's also drawn on the far side which, I have seen written, has traditionally been the place not to be in this race. But, looking at recent results, that is not borne out: Senor Mirasol only just failed to win from the same stall last year and both Lady Livius and If Paradise won this from stall one. Admittedly, the Super Sprint can be one for the pinstickers. But I am satisfied where my pin has landed.

Have a good day