Alpen Hedge

A strange day, Wednesday with an excellent afternoon (four clear top and two joint 2nd top wins at Goodwood) and an erratic evening. The Handicap Ratings held up well providing a 40% clear top rated win strike rate but the speed ratings underperformed - though they provided a 20/1 3rd top rated winner (Just Sam), and the (4) and (5) graded races hit a bump.

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Wednesday was 72% following Tuesday's 76%, Monday's 65% and Sunday's 70% -- an in running weekly average of just under 71%.

There were two from just five successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday, giving a 40% winning top two strike rate following Tuesday's 80%, Monday's 71% and Sunday's 65% -- an in running weekly average of 64%. The clear top rated winning strike rate was a low 20% Wednesday (one from five) following Tuesday's 70%, Monday's 57% and Sunday's 33% -- an in running weekly clear top rated strike rate of 45%.

The full top three summary for Wednesday:

HANDICAPS
Clear top rated strike rate was 40%. Best top rated SP was 8/1
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 56%. Best 2nd top SP was 9/2
Top three strike rate was 64%. Best 3rd top SP was 8/1

SPEED RATINGS
Clear top rated strike rate was 12%. Best top rated SP was 9/2
Top two strike rate (incl joints) was 32%. Best 2nd top SP was 13/2
Top three strike rate was 48%. Best 3rd top SP was 20/1
note: Unless there are overnight withdrawals there is always one clear top rated horse (in both services). There are never more than three horses (in either service) in the top two in any race where there are joint 2nd tops (one top rated two joint 2nd top). There are never more than four horses in the top three (in either service) in any race where there are either joint 2nd or joint third tops.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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Infiraad (4-35 Goodwood) has promised to be a Group 3 sprinter in the past and should run at least a place in this very competitive handicap.

Mirrored (2-10 Goodwood) looks likely to benefit from the step up in distance in a race where I think Alpen Glen should prove best of Mark Johnston's trio and reward an each way hedge bet.

Have a good day.