Some Mother's Really Do Have 'Em

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Tuesday fell below 65% for the first time to a meagre 58% due entirely to the afternoon's bad results at Redcar and Salisbury. This followed Monday's 77% and Sunday's 73%, an in running weekly average of 69% following the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings (except on Tuesday's at Redcar and Salisbury), then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races also suffered from the afternoon bad results on Tuesday. There were two such races in the afternoon and both were unsuccessful. There were a further three races in the evening and all three were successful. One was won by the top rated horse and two were won by the joint 2nd tops.

Tuesday showed how fickle racing can be on the odd occassion. The ratings were next to useless at Redcar and Salisbury - especially Salisbury. But in the evening they were in top form with a number of good top two winners that included, Lowther W 14/1, Embsay Crag W 11/1 and Tyrannosaurus Rex 11/1 - the latter nabbing Titus Andronicus on the line.

Titus Andronicus is begining to look like an almost perfect clone of Moor Lane (for those old enough to remember that useful horse). Titus seems to have speed to burn but more often than not he can't quite get home over 5f. He always seems to win at 4 and 4 and a half furlongs but can't sustain the rest of the run to the line. He will win more races but, like Moor Lane, he may never be able to hit the heights his ability promises.

The afternoon's debacle and the evening's success bear out quite a few things we said in our April 02 blog, Avoiding The Bombs. Read it again.

For Tuesday's racing, I said:

"Aromatic (3-55 Salisbury) and Ethics Girl (5-15 Redcar) are two fast improving fillies of differing abilities and will do well to lose after their recent good efforts."


Well, I got that right and wrong at the same time. They did do well to lose, after all..................

Wednesday I will be visiting mother all day, so my betting will be limited (I usually bet close to racetime).

If Lowther or Ben Chorley run (4-10 Haydock) one or t'other should win. If they are both non runners, I won't look any further.

A couple of easy last time out winners will be long odds on so are not very interesting. Brighton is neither a track I nor (in my opinion) any horse alive likes. Kempton is a form reader's nightmare most of the time. And Beverley is usually draw dependent............ have you noticed I'm struggling to find a good bet?

Well, the nearest I can get is Megawatt (4-40 Haydock), though even here I think the "Frankie Effect" could significantly lower the SP; and Saloon (2-10 Haydock) where the "Oooh, Bettee Effect" could seriously impinge on the SP.

Have an enjoyable day................