Skip It On Saturday

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I decided to go shopping today. I returned at 3-30pm to check the results and as I checked them one by one on the Sporting Life site, my face at first just ghostly turned a whiter shade of Munch's Scream.........

Two winners in the first ten races of the day for the top three combined.

Thankfully, the results picked up following my belated appearance. The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday recovered to a fairly reasonable, though still unsatisfactory, level of 61% following Thursday's 73%, Wednesday's 71%, Tuesday's meagre 58%, Monday's 77% and Sunday's 73%, an in running weekly average of 68.8% following the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings (except on Tuesday's at Redcar and Salisbury and shopping days), then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races were also pretty average, Friday. There were eight such races with five being successful. None at all were won by the top rated horse. Five were won by the 2nd top - three of them being joint 2nd top. Three races were unsuccessful.

Yesterday's blog did well insofar as there were no losers. Pity there were also no runners. Sloop Jonb was withdrawn because it was discovered he had mistakenly been declared for the race. He goes in Saturday's 3-Y-O sprint handicap (more on that race later).

And Ecuile was withdrawn after pointedly refusing to budge an inch towards the stalls.

With Friday's experiences fresh on my mind, I almost fell off my chair while scanning Saturday's cards. Many of the races look fearsome. But, as my Dad used to say, "Whatever comes your way, do not fold, spindle or mutilate." Or, when he couldn't be bothered, "The Greeks have a word for it." Though I think in the latter case he meant, "expletive deleted, I'm busy!"


But, here goes....

Sloop Johnb would seem to have as good a chance in York's 3-10 as he had in yesterday's race had he run. But not only is he not quite as well in on the ratings (he's joint 2nd top on time and top on form in our ratings. Master of Disguise is top on speed) but also he is going a furlong further than I would deem ideal. Added to which there are a few equally progressive 3-Y-Os in opposition. All are capable of winning the race (they can be gleaned from the ratings).

Though (like Sloop Johnb) Master of Disguise has not won beyond 5f, his wins have intimated that he would be even better over the longer distance. He looked really good when outstaying Noble Storm up Sandown's stiff 5f (incidentally, I rate Noble Storm as Dutching material with Triple Aspect in Sandown's 3-25 Listed race). It is well known that Master of Disguise's trainer rates him very highly and I would think he and Sloop Johnb are the two to take to the field (I'll be betting both), closely followed by Dark Mischief whose last run can safely be ignored. Swiss Diva and The Kyllachy Kid are two for the long shot hopefuls among you.

Although he only won by a short head, Forte Dei Marmi (1-50 Sandown) looked a class apart from his rivals when he showed an impressive turn of foot at Goodwood last time. He overhauled the leaders in a matter of strides when he got a clear run and would have won very cosily had he not met trouble in running. Lesser horses would have struggled to get placed. Global and Dancourt appear the main dangers.

Mr Skipiton (6-20 Lingfield Turf) was steadily brought along on the all weather over the winter and repayed his trainer's patience with two good wins over Lingfields's 6f polytrack. But arguably his best run came last time on his debut turf run over Nottingham's 5f behind Raccoon. He chased the leaders all the way and stayed on well to be beaten about two lengths in fifth. He's had a good rest since (his two consecutive wins came a month apart) and this return to a more suitable 6f should help him get involved in the scrap to the line. He rates good each way value at the forecast 10/1 overnight.

Be lucky Saturday - you'll need to be.