One To Beat The Boys

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Wednesday was 70% following Tuesday's low 59%, Monday's 78% and Sunday's 68%, an in running weekly average of just under 69%.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

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There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday producing average results. Two were won by the clear top rated horse and three were won by the 2nd top - one of them joint. One of the clear 2nd top rated was the amazingingly priced New Leyf which won at 20/1. Three races were unsuccessful.

I made a "value" faux pas yesterday for which I apologise. I said that Forgotten Voice was no value at 4/1 yet proposed Mia's Boy as a solid each way bet at 7/2 the place. I can't work out why I said that. I must have been more tired than I thought. Technically, I suppose it may not be an exact faux pas, but it is near enough to make me cringe....

I really fancied Monsieur Chevalier (2-30) as one of the bankers of the Royal meeting. But after the performances of the two American 2-Y-Os, I'm not quite as confident - well, only slightly less confident. By all accounts of what I've read and heard, the best American 2-Y-O to come over this week will run in the Albany Stakes on Friday. It is Aegean which stormed past today's easy Queen Mary winner close home last time out. Tomorrow's contender is Yogaroo which has had the bookies running for cover all day and evening. It has plummeted from around 10/1 into 7/4 2nd favourite. I love to see bookies panicking. It really makes my week. But I think they are prematurely waving the white flag. This is not the best of the four American 2-Y-Os. Whether he wins or not tomorrow, is presently beside the point. I will not be edged out of believing that Monsieur Chevalier will win - even though the bookies obviously think the American will (chicken livered little (expletive deleted) they are). At the moment, I calculate Here And Now as the main danger. If the Americans win again, it will be fascinating to see how short Aegean will be. Long odds on, is my estimate because the bookies will be having kittens.

Chiberta King, Polly's Mark and Barwell Bridge are three that interest me in the closing 5-30 at Royal Ascot tomorrow. All are progressive handicappers and all are tough - the latter an attribute needed in this race. The pace is likely to be hard from the outset and a hold up run seems the one that will succeed. Barwell Bridge is a good friend of this blog having won at York for us last month. He is as tough as they come and the rise in trip will play to all his strengths. Chilberta King is no less tough and he really ground out his win at Newmarket in a fashion that leads me to believe that whatever happens in the finish, he'll give his absolute all.

But the lady in the middle is the one I will be taking. Polly's Mark has improved significantly since going handicapping and seemed to want this trip when winning over Nottingham's easy 10f last time. Initially awkward when asked for her effort, she eventually strode out like a class horse in the final furlong to demolish a fairly good set of Class 4 handicap fillies. That Phillip Robinson is on her rather than on Opinion Poll is a lot more significant than it looks. Frankie Dettori does, of course, ride a lot for the owner, but Robinson doesn't jock off that easily. I expect the filly to come sweeping down the outside in the closing stages and will be betting her each way in case she comes too late. But she should be there at the finish.

I sincerely hope that Yeats achieves the Gold Cup four-timer (3-45) and gets the reception he deserves.... but I have a suspicion that Patkai will reverse form with Geordieland, who seems at his absolute best first time up.

Take The Hint and Leocorno are the obvious two in the Ascot Oaks, popularly known as the Ribblesdale (3-05). I slightly favour the former who has the best public form on offer. And even though Leocorno will improve again, I think tomorrow will be Take The Hint's day.

Freemantle should win the 4-55 easily enough but the odds will be very short.

I leave the Britannia (4-20) to the pinstickers. My pin came down on Roman Republic who should begin to show why his connections think he is a potential group horse.

Have a good Day.