SATURDAY
The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Saturday was under 65% for the second time this week at an unsatisfactory 59%, bringing the final weekly average down to 67.4%. This followed the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%.
The week was very unsatisfactory for the top three strike rate (and the blog selections) but the (4) and (5) graded races held up well. On Saturday there were seven such races with three being won by the top rated horse and two by the 2nd top - one of them joint. Two races were unsuccesful.
Sloop Johnb never got going after a slow start and hinted that 6f was too far anyway. As for Master of Disguise, he along with Sloop Johnb was the typical wrong assumption. It is many times erroneously thought a horse that wins at one distance with comfort will stay an extra furlong (or two). The fact is that most times the horse won well or comfortably at the shorter distance was because the distance suited it. Not because it was showing the promise of staying an extra distance. We all make that mistake sometimes - even trainers. But at least I did steer you to an each way punt on the winner at 10/1 (Swiss Diva our 2nd top on form).
Mr Skipiton was simply too fresh on his first run after a break. He pulled hard early and thus had little to offer in the closing stages. I'll keep my eye on him for the future.
As for Forte Dei Marmi. All I'll say on that race is that it is the bane of punters. We all spend a lot of time assessing form in the expectation that the race will at least be run at a reasonable pace (in most circumstances). But when the field crawls over a mid-distance race and then sprints the final two furlongs, the race becomes a lottery. I say to riders of those types of paceless races:
"The horses are running beyond sprint distances because they don't have the speed to win a sprint. So why try to turn them into sprinters? Please explain why you constantly try to turn mid-distance horses into quarter-bred-two-furlong-rockets. I am baffled..............."
Although for 99% of the time I admire jockeys for risking life and limb to provide us with entertainment daily, I am continuously proved right in my assertion that today's breed of jockeys have very limited ability and initiative compared to the riders of old.
The week was very unsatisfactory for the top three strike rate (and the blog selections) but the (4) and (5) graded races held up well. On Saturday there were seven such races with three being won by the top rated horse and two by the 2nd top - one of them joint. Two races were unsuccesful.
Sloop Johnb never got going after a slow start and hinted that 6f was too far anyway. As for Master of Disguise, he along with Sloop Johnb was the typical wrong assumption. It is many times erroneously thought a horse that wins at one distance with comfort will stay an extra furlong (or two). The fact is that most times the horse won well or comfortably at the shorter distance was because the distance suited it. Not because it was showing the promise of staying an extra distance. We all make that mistake sometimes - even trainers. But at least I did steer you to an each way punt on the winner at 10/1 (Swiss Diva our 2nd top on form).
Mr Skipiton was simply too fresh on his first run after a break. He pulled hard early and thus had little to offer in the closing stages. I'll keep my eye on him for the future.
As for Forte Dei Marmi. All I'll say on that race is that it is the bane of punters. We all spend a lot of time assessing form in the expectation that the race will at least be run at a reasonable pace (in most circumstances). But when the field crawls over a mid-distance race and then sprints the final two furlongs, the race becomes a lottery. I say to riders of those types of paceless races:
"The horses are running beyond sprint distances because they don't have the speed to win a sprint. So why try to turn them into sprinters? Please explain why you constantly try to turn mid-distance horses into quarter-bred-two-furlong-rockets. I am baffled..............."
Although for 99% of the time I admire jockeys for risking life and limb to provide us with entertainment daily, I am continuously proved right in my assertion that today's breed of jockeys have very limited ability and initiative compared to the riders of old.
SUNDAY
Theere were four UK (4) and (5) graded races, Sunday. Two were won by the top rated horse and one by the clear 2nd top. One race was unsuccessful.The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Sunday was 68%.
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On to Monday.
Windsor's 8-30 is a typical Class 5 handicap with most of the field running for a lower future handicap mark. It is not as competitive as the numbers would suggest. Beaubrav has had the misfortune to bump into two hugely progressive horses the last twice out (Strathcal and Brett Vale) and would seem to have been pitched against another in Mons Calpe. But the horses that Mons Calpe has beaten haven't exactly franked the form of his two victories, suggesting he won two weak races. On the other hand, the rivals who have beaten or finished close to Beaubrav have upheld the form in a number of subsequent runs. So, while there's no denying that Mons Calpe has improved this year, I think Beaubrav is a sporting bet against the likely favourite. Demeanour looks the one for the tricast.
Have a good Monday in the afternoon rain.............
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