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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was 77% following Sunday's 73%, an in running weekly average of 75% following the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.
There were four from five successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Two were won by the top rated horse - one joint top due to the original top rated being a non runner. Two were won by the 2nd top rated horse - one of them joint. The remaining race was unsuccessful.
Almaty Express was ridden all the way and did fairly well not to fold more tamely. Maybe he wants a sharper track like Catterick or Warwick to get that elusive turf win. He still has the ability and one day he will pop up at a good price on the turf.
On Tuesday, Aromatic (3-55 Salisbury) and Ethics Girl (5-15 Redcar) are two fast improving fillies of differing abilities and will do well to lose after their recent good efforts.
Tuesday also brings the quick return to the track of Titus Andronicus (8-45 Chester). He only just failed to win for the blog the other day but he showed he was still in good form. His front running tactics have a better chance of paying off on this very tight track.
Have a good Day
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This blog is always interesting and I have been using the ratings to some good effect over a period of time - the introduction of the Speed Ratings has increased my strike rate. For anyone who is interested here's how I use them.
I look at three aspects to consider which horses to bet:
Firstly, I look at the shape of the race in market terms – only considering those races that appear to be one-horse races or a duel between two. For today’s racing this would have given me the following (with early morning Betfair prices in brackets – I use the Lay price as a more accurate indicator):
14:00 Redcar – Pure Nostalgia (2.2); Marsh Warbler (2.48); next shortest (20)
14:15 Salisbury – Crystal Gale (2.32); Newton circus (4.4); next shortest (16)
15:55 Salisbury – Aromatic (2.82); next shortest (8)
16:45 Redcar – Luc Jordan (2.1); next shortest (4.8)
17:00 Salisbury – Cyborg (2.66); next shortest (7.4)
17:15 Redcar – Ethics Girl (2.52); next shortest (9)
18:45 Chester – Itsthursdayalready (2.14); next shortest (4.9)
19:15 Chester – Oriental Cavalier (3.8); next shortest (8.8)
20:30 Southwell – Mizen Raven (3.75); next shortest (9.6)
20:45 Chester – Titus Andronicus (2.82); next shortest (6.6)
21:00 Southwell – Roses (2.9); Rustic Road (2.94); next shortest (16)
I next look at the ratings. What I want to see is the sole possible selection (or one of the two possibles) being top-rated in both Handicap and Speed Ratings. Going through the above list I get rid of the 14:00 Redcar as Marsh Warbler doesn’t have a Speed Rating; the 14:15 Salisbury as Newton Circus doesn’t have a Speed Rating; the 17:00 Salisbury as Cyborg is not top Handicap rated; the 18:45 Chester as Itsthursdayalready is only 2nd top Speed Rated; and the 21:00 Southwell as Roses (the top rated Handicap horse) is only 2nd top Speed Rated and Rustic Road doesn’t have a Speed Rating.
The list now looks like this:
15:55 Salisbury – Aromatic
16:45 Redcar – Luc Jordan
17:15 Redcar – Ethics Girl
19:15 Chester – Oriental Cavalier
20:30 Southwell – Mizen Raven
20:45 Chester – Titus Andronicus
The final check is to look at the Spotlight comments in the Racing Post for each of the above to see if there are positives or negatives about them.
The only real possible negative is to make sure the ground doesn’t go too soft at Chester for Titus Andronicus. However, there are a couple of points to note with the others.
Luc Jordan in the 16:45 Redcar was a big price on its first start (I’m not keen on following unfancied horses), and it failed in its last start (which might mean it lacks some fight). This wouldn’t be enough to put me off backing it, but I would reduce my stakes and definitely not take it should it start at odds-on.
Mizen Raven in the 20:30 Southwell is reverting to hurdling, and I don’t always see this as a positive – jumping tends to blunt the speed of horses. However, at 3.75 it looks like a good bet for slightly reduced stakes, but would seriously consider leaving alone if it fell below 3.0.
It may not be exciting betting (no big-price winners), but the ratings are certainly helping me steadily improve my betting.
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