Aye, Aye Captain

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was a very high 87% (only five races failed to provide a top 3 winner) following Thursday's 72%, Wednesday's 85%, Tuesday's 76%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 76%, an in running weekly average of just under 78% following last week's final weekly average of exactly 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races weren't as successful, Friday. There were nine such races. Two were won by the clear top rated horse, four were won by the 2nd top rated horse - one of them joint. Three races were unsuccessful.

Midday ran her heart out but just wasn't good enough on the day. Under current rules there was never a doubt that Sariska would keep the race. But those of you old enough to remember Bill Wightman's handicapper, Air Trooper, know that the old rules would have seen her thrown out. She took out at least two other horses when she was allowed to drift left early in the straight. In the USA and, possibly, France, she wouldn't have kept the race. Having said that, I wouldn't change our rules for either of those two. It seems that if you so much a sneeze in the direction of an opposing horse in those countries, you are disqualified. Thankfully, we are not so daft.

The bafflement of racing doesn't ease up. Celestial Dream never looked the same horse as when she won. We all have our off days - and this blog has had a few of those lately................

Saturday is fiercely competitive. If you are a form reader, you would say that Fame and Glory is the likely O'Brien horse that could topple the current Derby favourite. But if you go by jockey bookings or a jockeys choice between mounts, you'd go for Rip Van Winkle as the only possible danger to Sea The Stars. I personally will go with the form book and nominate Fame and Glory to follow Sea The Stars home.

Aye Aye Digby (5-05 Epsom) and Marching Time (1-25 Epsom) look likely to bookend the meeting. But they may be little value in such competitive races. So I will wait on those two hoping to get 9/2 to 5/1 on both.

Titus Andronicus (4-05 Musselburgh) had four subsequent winners behind him when he won impressively on his seasonal debut. He was beaten by one of those last time out (Sloop John B) but that was on unsuitable gound and I expect him to return to that seasonal debut form on this sounder surface. The possible overnight rain would only be a worry if it got deep in the ground, but overnight, he looks the likely winner of the race.

My normal small Saturday each way punt is Captain Macarry (2-05 Doncaster). He easily beat Salerosa ( a winner twice since) over Beverley's extended 7f before running an fairish 3rd over that track's mile and half a furlong. He was simply running over a trip too far, but the way he kept plugging away showed he is still in good form. The return to this shorter trip will help him no end and I can see him being in the thick of it in the closing stages.

Be careful out there........