All Aboard Almaty

Apologies for no blog update yesterday. I was fiddling with the blog settings and nearly lost the whole lot. Late into the night, I decided enough was enough and went to bed, then relaxed all Sunday to chill out. So first, a quick summary of Saturday and Sunday.

SATURDAY

The combined top three for both the Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings produced a 71% win strike rate - lowered by their poor performance at Doncaster. However, the Speed Ratings produced a few good 2nd top winners: Pavershooz 28/1, River Captain 16/1, Indian Trail 11/1. So there were some highlights

The total combined handicap and Speed top three strike rate percentage for the week was 76.70 - the previous week's percentage was exactly 72.

I didn't bet either Marching Time or Aye Aye Digby because, as intimated the night before, they were no value on the day. So I luckily avoided two losers.

I cannot explain Captain Macarry's abysmal run. Yes, he did look slightly keen early, but he was beaten over 2f out and that is not the sign of a horse on good terms with himself. The amount he was eased when clearly beaten raises some thoughts. But sometimes you just have to accept results and move on. So, I will - to the Derby.

I was surprised that Sea The Stars was knocked from favouritism, but he looked the winner a long way out. The placed horses, headed by my forecast selection, Fame And Glory, were closing at the end but I think that was the winner pulling himself up. I can't claim any kudos for the forecast since it was probably the forecast pick of most of the country.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races were a lot better than the 71% the ratings produced. There were eleven from twelve successful races. Eight were won by the top rated horse, three by the 2nd top rated horse - two of them joints. The other race was unsuccessful (won by the 3rd top horse).

SUNDAY

The top three combined produced 73% of the winners but the (4) and (5) UK races bombed out after Saturday's good results. There were five such races and only two of them won, both by the 2nd top rated horse - one of them joint.

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Tomorrow has a surreal Monday Morning Blues look about it. The races are decidedly unattractive in the main. I will be waiting until the last race of the day at my favourite and local track, Pontefract. In one of my previous blogs I complained that many winning All Weather horses rarely win on turf. My Monday selection is one of those horses. The race is not very good quality and looks primed for a high priced winner. With that in mind, I go for an each way bet on Almaty Express (9-20 Pontefract).

He's run almost exclusively on the All Weather the past two and a half years and his forays on turf have not been very noteworthy in the main. He's usually a ten pounds better horse on the All Weather but he's been dropped twelve pounds since his last turf run at Beveley thirteen months ago (at a time when he's been raised nine pounds for two Wolverhampton wins). He isn't a worse horse since that time and he actually ran a better race than it looks at Beverley if you just blandly read the form book.

He is a few pounds too high on the All Weather which is probably the reason he is making a rare turf appearance. In his favour is the recent unjarring of the ground due to recent rain. I think this is the one time he has a good chance on turf. The handicapper has been very kind and the draw is perfect for his front running style. There are other front runners in the race, most notably the course specialist Mr Wolf. But when Almaty Express won earlier in the year (when not leading all the way) , it was because the pace was suicidal. That is a possible scenario tomorrow.

Have a good day.