On The Nod

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was a lowish 63% following Sunday's 75%, an in running weekly average of 69%.

There were six (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday with a poor 33% top two winning strike rate. Two were won by the 2nd top rated horse - one of them joint. Producing a very poor result with the four remaining races being unsuccessful.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

Sir Nod (4-45 Hamilton) likes it hot and fast and bounced back to his best last time out with a very comfortable win. He looks primed to follow up.

Others likely to follow up a recent win are Aldaado (3-15 Hamilton) and Violent Velocity (7-30 Thirsk).

Have a good day.

Just a Summary

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No blog for Sunday so a weekend summary.

SATURDAY

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Saturday was 74% following Friday's 72% (one clear 2nd top speed rated was Sheila's Castle 3rd at 80/1), Thursday's 69%, Wednesday's 67% (winners including clear top speed rated Dakiyah Won 25/1), Tuesday's 74%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 85%, a weeklyaverage of 73%.

There were also five non-UK races (three from Ireland and two from the USA) that produced a 100% top three strike rate (80% top two and 40% top rated) on both the ratings and the (4) and (5) graded races.

There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Saturday with a 50% top two winning strike rate. three were won by the clear top rated horse, one was won by the clear 2nd top rated. Four races were unsuccessful.

SUNDAY

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Sunday was 75%.

There were also nine non-UK races, Sunday (two from France and seven from Ireland) that produced a 55% top two win strike rate and a 44% top rated strike rate on the ratings and one from one (4) and (5) grade race win (top rated).

There were four (4) and (5) UK graded races, Sunday with a 75% top two winning strike rate. three were won by the clear top rated horse and one race was unsuccessful.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

Over the next week or two I will be posting a series of articles to answer questions posed to me about various aspects of racing and betting. Questions I will attempt to answer using my long experience will include:

• Which are the best races to bet;
• Which are the best tracks to bet at;
  
• When is the best time to bet.
  
• How is a handicap or a speed rating compiled.
• How do you decide which horses from a trainer in form are the ones to bet and which aren't.

Over the weeks I will also answer other questions and some not yet posed. I won't be posting the articles daily but every other day depending on time being available. So keep visiting.

Saturday Combo

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate was 72%, Friday (one clear 2nd top speed rated was Sheila's Castle 3rd at 80/1), following Thursday's 69%, Wednesday's 67% (winners including clear top speed rated Dakiyah Won 25/1), Tuesday's 74%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 85%, a weekly in running average of 73%.

There were thirteen (4) and (5) UK graded races, Friday with a 62% top two winning strike rate. Five were won by the clear top rated horse, one was won by the clear 2nd top rated and two were won by the joint 2nd top rated. Five races were unsuccessful.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

The past two weeks have been a bit lacking with the tipping but Saturday, like Thursday, looks a little more hopeful.

For the fun-multiple bettors among you there are a few combinations available. War Artist (2-05 Newcastle), Thin Red Line (4-50 Newcastle), Cool Strike (2-40 Chester), Spirit of Dubai (3-50 Chester), Andhaar (6-50 Lingfield) and Cape Royal (7-55 Lingfield) should provide at least one four timer.

Hits Only Vic was a very progressive stayer last year and his seasonal debut win showed he was still progressing. He is now 34 lbs higher than his first win twelve months ago. He runs well on all types of ground, likes a fast pace (which he will get) and stays forever. So, the 16/1 overnight forecast price is too tempting an each way price to miss. I will take him each way with a win saver on Record Breaker who hinted that this trip would suit him well when staying on very strongly last time at Royal Ascot. Judgethemoment and Hendersyde are two very big dangers.

Heve a good day.

His Name is Earl

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate was 69%, Thursday following Wednesday's 67% (winners including clear top speed rated Dakiyah Won 25/1), Tuesday's 74%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 85%, a weekly in running average of 73%.

There were seven (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday, a 71% top two winning strike rate. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, two were won by the joint 2nd top rated. Two races were unsuccessful.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

On Friday, Stuart Williams has his string in good form and his Earlsmedic should be prominent for him in Folkestone's 4-15. It is a competitive handicap but he looks well worth an interest.

Mullein (8-05 Newmarket) has only run badly twice, both on very heavy ground that she hated. Apart from that she has shown solid progression up the ranks and should prove herself more than capable of tackling Listed class in the future by winning this very tight little race.

Have a good day.

Thursday is Golden

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate was 67%, Wednesday (winners including clear top speed rated Dakiyah Won 25/1) following Tuesday's 74%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 85%, a weekly in running average of 74%.

There were five (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, one was won by the joint 2nd top rated. Just one race was unsuccessful.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

I'm tipping like an amateur on the blog but hopes are high for Thursday.

There are a few potential improvers in Warwick's Listed fillies event (3-50), none more so than Golden Stream who ran the race of her career at Royal Ascot. This looks a suitable opportunity to break her season's duck.

Have a good day

President of Cumberland

You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate was 74%, Tuesday, this followed Monday's 70% and Sunday's 85%, a weekly in running average of just over 76%.

There were seven (4) and (5) UK graded races, Tuesday. Five were won by the clear top rated horse, one was won by the joint 2nd top rated. Just one race was unsuccessful.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

Yes Mr President (4-10 Carlisle) would look to have a very stiff task carrying 10st 2lbs but most of the fancied horses against him are within seven or eight pounds of him, making the apparently huge weight look a little irrelevant. The way he powered away last time at Goodwood marked him as a horse to follow.

Have a good day.

Coming Back For More

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate was 70%, Monday following Sunday's 85%, a weekly in running average of 77.50%.

There were nine (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, three were won by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint. Three races were unsuccessful.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then (most days) it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

Everymanforhimself (4-15 Beverley) is a consistent horse who ran a good race against the eventual Wokingham favourite last time. On the face of it he looks a pound or two too high in the handicap. But he is always worth a few pounds round Beverley and should be cherry ripe now. Darryl Holland as a good record riding for Kevin Ryan who himself has a good record with older horses at Beverley.

On the bare form of their run against each other in March, Onemix should easily beat Coming Back (8-30 Newbury) on ten pounds better terms for a half length beating. But Coming Back improved a lot to run Rosalka close at Salisbury last time with Full of Nature behind. Coming Back has more scope than the rest of the field and should progress again to confirm form with those two horses.

Have a good day.

Unappetising Monday

No blog for Sunday's racing so a quick update.

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SATURDAY

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate was 67% following the lowest ever, Friday at 58% (a poor Goodwood the main culprit), this followed Thursday's 77% following Wednesday's 70%, Tuesday's low 59%, Monday's 78% and Sunday's 68%, a weekly average of just over 68%.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races were very average, Saturday. There were nine such races. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and five races were unsuccessful.

SUNDAY

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate was 85%, Sunday, with only three races failing to provide the winner.

There were only two (4) and (5) UK graded races, Sunday. One was won by the clear 2nd top horse and the other race was unsuccessful.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then (most days) it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

Over 81% of races are Class 5 and Class 6 races on Monday. This is further proof that racing is vastly overloaded with low grade horses. When you contact the BHA about low grade racing, they say it is impossible to have great racing everyday. This is inherently true yet the wording of the answer painfully portrays their condescending attitude towards the racing public in a way it would seem impossible to do. So well done to them for that....

So the BHA's real answer has to be the opposite to the above: it is fully possible to provide poor low class racing virtually every day. So now we know....

Devil You Know (7-40 Windsor) looks a fair bet to continue his progression.

I will be looking closer to racetime for my other bets on a very unappetising day.

Have a good day.

Finish Ascot on a High

You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate was the lowest ever, Friday at 58% (a poor Goodwood the main culprit), this followed Thursday's 77% following Wednesday's 70%, Tuesday's low 59%, Monday's 78% and Sunday's 68%, an in running weekly average of just over 68%.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then (most days) it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races were equally average, Friday. There were nine such races. Two were won by the clear top rated horse and three were won by the 2nd top, one of them joint. Four races were unsuccessful.

It seems I've turned into Claude Duval with my tipping. Saturday promises a bit better, though.

I have some nice ante post tickets for High Standing (Wokingham 4-25) so I will let that ride without further investment.

Invincible Lad is at the top of his game and only just failed last time. He should make amends in Ayr's 5-10. Steelcut and Tadalavil are the dangers.

And Tyrells Wood should repay some each way money in the final Royal Ascot race of the year (5-35). I was at Pontefract when he won and was impressed by how well suited he was to the 2 mile trip there - admittedly it wasn't against the likes of Caracciola and Amerigo. But he should stay the extra distance to gain at least a place at worst.

Be careful out there, Saturday

Kismet, Hardy: Reprise

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Thursday was 77% following Wednesday's 70%, Tuesday's low 59%, Monday's 78% and Sunday's 68%, an in running weekly average of just over 70%.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday again producing average results. Two were won by the clear top rated horse and two were won by the clear 2nd top. Four races were unsuccessful.

Well, Yeats got the reception he deserved from the Irish contingent whose cheers were drowned out by the restrained applause of the rest. I had to giggle when the BBC camera showed the crowd cheering as Yeats was led into the winners enclosure. Stiff features on heads over rigid bodies with a tiny, tiny hint of a smile and about five seconds polite applause. You know what types of people are there when Claire Balding begins, "Your Majesty, my Lords Ladies and Gentlemen..." Had she continued, "...and regular, racegoing, daily viewers and financial providers for the sport," I would have been happier....

Regular readers of this blog will be familiar with Native Ruler. He has been slowly maturing and improving over the season and ran a lot better than at first glance in the Dante. As he is in the hands of a master trainer, I think he will continue his improvement and thus be there at the end of the King Edward VII Stakes (3-05). I see him making Black Bear Island and South Easter fight all the way. I will be disappointed if he doesn't make the frame.

Lillie Langtry (2-30) is very classy and I take her to hold off the challenge of the American Aegean. Others I think will run big races are Chachamaidee, She's A Character and Above Limits.

Ghanaati (3-45) seemed to surprise many people when she took the 1000 Guineas in the Spring. It has to be said that this crop of 3-Y-O fillies is not the best ever seen and as such it will be surprising if she doesn't confirm herself as the best of an average generation.

Stone Of Scone (4-20) will not be much value but the manner of his win and the way he ran in a race not run to suit last time marks this good looking horse out as a typically improving Royal Ascot handicap winner. This handicap is about as tough as they come and there are many possibles. Chief among them would appear to be Moonquake - though he may struggle to confirm form with Stone of Scone on worse terms.

Dhushan seems to have a favourite's chance in the Queen's Vase (4-55) but it is a race hard to evaluate since all are stepping up significantly in distance. It seems a case of pinsticking without the favourite.

The final race (5-30) is definitely a hopeful punt whatever your fancy. But Mister Hardy is still capable of running a very big race despite having risen a full stone for his hat-trick.

Have a good day

One To Beat The Boys

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Wednesday was 70% following Tuesday's low 59%, Monday's 78% and Sunday's 68%, an in running weekly average of just under 69%.

If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday producing average results. Two were won by the clear top rated horse and three were won by the 2nd top - one of them joint. One of the clear 2nd top rated was the amazingingly priced New Leyf which won at 20/1. Three races were unsuccessful.

I made a "value" faux pas yesterday for which I apologise. I said that Forgotten Voice was no value at 4/1 yet proposed Mia's Boy as a solid each way bet at 7/2 the place. I can't work out why I said that. I must have been more tired than I thought. Technically, I suppose it may not be an exact faux pas, but it is near enough to make me cringe....

I really fancied Monsieur Chevalier (2-30) as one of the bankers of the Royal meeting. But after the performances of the two American 2-Y-Os, I'm not quite as confident - well, only slightly less confident. By all accounts of what I've read and heard, the best American 2-Y-O to come over this week will run in the Albany Stakes on Friday. It is Aegean which stormed past today's easy Queen Mary winner close home last time out. Tomorrow's contender is Yogaroo which has had the bookies running for cover all day and evening. It has plummeted from around 10/1 into 7/4 2nd favourite. I love to see bookies panicking. It really makes my week. But I think they are prematurely waving the white flag. This is not the best of the four American 2-Y-Os. Whether he wins or not tomorrow, is presently beside the point. I will not be edged out of believing that Monsieur Chevalier will win - even though the bookies obviously think the American will (chicken livered little (expletive deleted) they are). At the moment, I calculate Here And Now as the main danger. If the Americans win again, it will be fascinating to see how short Aegean will be. Long odds on, is my estimate because the bookies will be having kittens.

Chiberta King, Polly's Mark and Barwell Bridge are three that interest me in the closing 5-30 at Royal Ascot tomorrow. All are progressive handicappers and all are tough - the latter an attribute needed in this race. The pace is likely to be hard from the outset and a hold up run seems the one that will succeed. Barwell Bridge is a good friend of this blog having won at York for us last month. He is as tough as they come and the rise in trip will play to all his strengths. Chilberta King is no less tough and he really ground out his win at Newmarket in a fashion that leads me to believe that whatever happens in the finish, he'll give his absolute all.

But the lady in the middle is the one I will be taking. Polly's Mark has improved significantly since going handicapping and seemed to want this trip when winning over Nottingham's easy 10f last time. Initially awkward when asked for her effort, she eventually strode out like a class horse in the final furlong to demolish a fairly good set of Class 4 handicap fillies. That Phillip Robinson is on her rather than on Opinion Poll is a lot more significant than it looks. Frankie Dettori does, of course, ride a lot for the owner, but Robinson doesn't jock off that easily. I expect the filly to come sweeping down the outside in the closing stages and will be betting her each way in case she comes too late. But she should be there at the finish.

I sincerely hope that Yeats achieves the Gold Cup four-timer (3-45) and gets the reception he deserves.... but I have a suspicion that Patkai will reverse form with Geordieland, who seems at his absolute best first time up.

Take The Hint and Leocorno are the obvious two in the Ascot Oaks, popularly known as the Ribblesdale (3-05). I slightly favour the former who has the best public form on offer. And even though Leocorno will improve again, I think tomorrow will be Take The Hint's day.

Freemantle should win the 4-55 easily enough but the odds will be very short.

I leave the Britannia (4-20) to the pinstickers. My pin came down on Roman Republic who should begin to show why his connections think he is a potential group horse.

Have a good Day.

Rose Will Blossom

You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Tuesday was a low 59% purely down to the evening meetings - especially Yarmouth. This followed Monday's 78% and Sunday's 68%, an in running weekly average of just over 68%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

There were six (4) and (5) UK graded races, Tuesday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and two were won by the 2nd top - one of them joint. One race was unsuccessful.

As expected, the reception of the Royal Ascot winners was embarrassingly muted. I thought the only time it threatened to erupt was after Mastercraftsman's hard fought win - and that was only because of the Irish contingent. The Aussie jockey who rode a superb race to win looked bemused by the silence as glanced at the crowd when dismounting Scenic Blast. Back home he'd have been mobbed. But excited emotion is not allowed at Royal Ascot. Oh, no. It's unbecoming.

Royal Ascot really is the pits in regard to atmosphere and more than anything else emphasises that the current men at the top need flushing out and replacing by younger more aware people.

I have never met and would dislike to be in the company of the groups of people the BHA see as racing's "audience". The true audience are the factory workers, shop workers, car workers, nurses, bin men, road sweepers, et al. They are called Chris, Jim, Arthur, Joyce, Joan, and Sandra. None of them are the BHA's version of a faceless fop who unemotionally observes a race and then goes to sit quietly on the lawn or in the "restaurant" to sip a glass or two of the-wine-to-be-seen-drinking!

While ever the current mob are in power, the worse is racing's future. They are not within binocular range of pushing racing forward while they pay some faceless organisation 250 000 pounds to spout rubbish more suited to a Victorian vision than a twenty-first century vision. Gawd, they make me mad..................

Anyway, now I have got that drivel off my chest, the blog finally got a couple of winners. Mastercraftsman, Canford Cliffs and a disappointingly short priced Judgethemoment. But it has to be said, the last race apart, it was definitely a punters day and quite a lot of people will have been celebrating a profit well before that last race.

On Wednesday, the Royal Hunt Cup looks a ferocious handicap to bet in. It wouldn't shock me if any one of twenty won the race. Of my shortlist of three-quarters of the field, it is interesting that Luca Cumani relies on Axiom instead of Riggins, especially since Axiom seems best with give. Dunn'o would be in with a favourites chance if this was Sandown and not Ascot. He doesn't seem to deliver away from that track. Plus, it is very unlikely he'll be unharrassed for the lead since the field is replete with front running types. Philario is in good form but always seems to lack a quality finishing kick on fast ground. And Roaring Forte, though progressive, may find this race a bit too much given that his wins have been in smallish fields.

With so many front runners and highly exposed, but good handicappers on show, it would be reasonable to assume that a progressive hold up horse will win the race. Forgotten Voice has been favourite for this for a while now but the value has disappeared. (4/1 overnight). Were it not for the expected meagre SP, he would be my choice. But in a race where hardened experience can be a distinct advantage, it is also reasonable to assume that Mia's Boy will be as close at this finish as he has been in other big field handicaps. The front runners will give him a very good tow, making his late run look all the more appealing. The booking of Ryan Moore takes the eye and this race has to be Mia's Boy's last chance to bag a biggie. He is solid each way material at the overnight odds (12/1 and bigger).

If Gallagher (2-30) comes back fit as a bull, he would be a very possible winner. He is a good each way price given that he had the best form of these at 2-Y-O. If he's done well close season, he will be there at the end.

Lush Lashes (3-05) should return to winning and finally prove that the ground was the reason for her average run at the Curragh last time.

Tartan Bearer (3-45) can prove himself a ready-made Eclipse winner by taking this on the way to Sandown.

Rose Blossom (4-55) was visually very impressive when she beat an average field (the runner up was well beaten in another average maiden on Monday). On form, the race she won doesn't look an obvious Queen Mary trial. But she broke the 37 year long course record without trying. And if Richard Fahey says she is the best filly he has ever trained, then who am I to argue. She looks to have a host of dangers, not least Don't Tell Mary and Misheer, but she wouldn't be here if her trainer thought she wasn't up to the task...

Say No Now (5-30) has close form lines with a few of today's runners and on paper would seem to need to step up a few pounds to beat some of them. But she has always looked a miler and her last run over 10f almost certainly proved that. She had the lead at the distance but her stamina gave out and she was then comfortably beaten into third behind Monetcantbuymelove. She is handicapped to dead heat with that rival today but the return to a mile should enable her to take revenge. Photographic, Good Again and Moonlife are three very dangerous rivals. So at the overnight 10/1 forecast Say No Now represents a sound each way bet.

Have a good day.

Propre Tuesday

You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was 78%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings , then it was highly likely it wouldn't win.

You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Five were won by the clear top rated horse and one was won by the clear 2nd top. Two races were unsuccessful.


Beaubrav was never at the races and was never going to beat the gambled on winner. But the one hint of his improving his position was thwarted as his "head-down-don't-know-where-I'm-going-but-the-winning-post-is-up-here-somewhere" rider disappointed him by running into the derrieres of his opponents. Ability, eh?

Tuesday sees the the start of Royal Ascot. It is a meeting that we all look forward to but one which lacks the raw atmosphere of Cheltenham. While most winners at Cheltenham are greeted with ground-shaking cheers, the winners at Royal Ascot are, in the main, greeted with polite applause and the isolated whoop and whistle. Of all the race meetings I will never go to Royal Ascot is the main one. There is more atmosphere on a cool Monday evening at Pontefract. I recall in sadness the muted applause Yeats got last year when he completed the Gold Cup hat-trick. It was an historic achievement received in the winners enclosure like a gambled on selling race winner. Royal Ascot is not and has never been put on for regular racegoers like me. So I'll always stay home Royal Ascot week and enjoy it much, much more on the telly.

With Fleeting Spirit having something to prove on his debut, and with the likes of Tax Free and Borderlescott unlikely to get better than they are, the King's Stand Stakes (3-05) looks a straight fight between Amour Propre and Scenic Blast.

The latter has shown vastly improved form this year and has won the same two prestigious handicaps as the other two Aussie winners of this race, Takeover Target and Miss Andretti. The balance of his form is not quite as good as those two when they arrived here, but connections are expecting him to run a very big race. Overall, he has shown a tendency to prefer good and softer ground - though I am reliably informed that some good ground in Australia could be compared to good to firm ground here. Yet it would seem he will need the rain to flash over Ascot to improve his chances.

Amour Propre has also improved a lot this year and his Palace House victory stamped him as a very high class group race sprinter. He has no ground worries and is not disadvantaged by his age because 3-Y-Os have an excellent record in the race. I expect him to make home advantage tell.

Gladiatorus (2-30) should hold off the improving Main Aim. Mastercraftsman (3-45) should confirm form with Delegator. Canford Cliffs (4-20) can confirm the impression that he is the top 2-Y-O seen so far (at the main expense, I think of No Hubris and Red Jazz). Judgethemoment (4-55) is a fair each way bet in a very competitive staying handicap. And Mister Manannan aside, I leave the last race to the pinstickers.

Have an enjoyable day.

Monday's Hopeful in the Rain

No blog for Sunday's racing , so I'll summarise Saturday and Sunday's results before going on to Monday's racing.

SATURDAY

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Saturday was under 65% for the second time this week at an unsatisfactory 59%, bringing the final weekly average down to 67.4%. This followed the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%.

The week was very unsatisfactory for the top three strike rate (and the blog selections) but the (4) and (5) graded races held up well. On Saturday there were seven such races with three being won by the top rated horse and two by the 2nd top - one of them joint. Two races were unsuccesful.

Sloop Johnb never got going after a slow start and hinted that 6f was too far anyway. As for Master of Disguise, he along with Sloop Johnb was the typical wrong assumption. It is many times erroneously thought a horse that wins at one distance with comfort will stay an extra furlong (or two). The fact is that most times the horse won well or comfortably at the shorter distance was because the distance suited it. Not because it was showing the promise of staying an extra distance. We all make that mistake sometimes - even trainers. But at least I did steer you to an each way punt on the winner at 10/1 (Swiss Diva our 2nd top on form).

Mr Skipiton was simply too fresh on his first run after a break. He pulled hard early and thus had little to offer in the closing stages. I'll keep my eye on him for the future.

As for Forte Dei Marmi. All I'll say on that race is that it is the bane of punters. We all spend a lot of time assessing form in the expectation that the race will at least be run at a reasonable pace (in most circumstances). But when the field crawls over a mid-distance race and then sprints the final two furlongs, the race becomes a lottery. I say to riders of those types of paceless races:

"The horses are running beyond sprint distances because they don't have the speed to win a sprint. So why try to turn them into sprinters? Please explain why you constantly try to turn mid-distance horses into quarter-bred-two-furlong-rockets. I am baffled..............."

Although for 99% of the time I admire jockeys for risking life and limb to provide us with entertainment daily, I am continuously proved right in my assertion that today's breed of jockeys have very limited ability and initiative compared to the riders of old.

SUNDAY

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Sunday was 68%.

Theere were four UK (4) and (5) graded races, Sunday. Two were won by the top rated horse and one by the clear 2nd top. One race was unsuccessful.

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On to Monday.

Windsor's 8-30 is a typical Class 5 handicap with most of the field running for a lower future handicap mark. It is not as competitive as the numbers would suggest. Beaubrav has had the misfortune to bump into two hugely progressive horses the last twice out (Strathcal and Brett Vale) and would seem to have been pitched against another in Mons Calpe. But the horses that Mons Calpe has beaten haven't exactly franked the form of his two victories, suggesting he won two weak races. On the other hand, the rivals who have beaten or finished close to Beaubrav have upheld the form in a number of subsequent runs. So, while there's no denying that Mons Calpe has improved this year, I think Beaubrav is a sporting bet against the likely favourite. Demeanour looks the one for the tricast.

Have a good Monday in the afternoon rain.............

Skip It On Saturday

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I decided to go shopping today. I returned at 3-30pm to check the results and as I checked them one by one on the Sporting Life site, my face at first just ghostly turned a whiter shade of Munch's Scream.........

Two winners in the first ten races of the day for the top three combined.

Thankfully, the results picked up following my belated appearance. The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday recovered to a fairly reasonable, though still unsatisfactory, level of 61% following Thursday's 73%, Wednesday's 71%, Tuesday's meagre 58%, Monday's 77% and Sunday's 73%, an in running weekly average of 68.8% following the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings (except on Tuesday's at Redcar and Salisbury and shopping days), then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races were also pretty average, Friday. There were eight such races with five being successful. None at all were won by the top rated horse. Five were won by the 2nd top - three of them being joint 2nd top. Three races were unsuccessful.

Yesterday's blog did well insofar as there were no losers. Pity there were also no runners. Sloop Jonb was withdrawn because it was discovered he had mistakenly been declared for the race. He goes in Saturday's 3-Y-O sprint handicap (more on that race later).

And Ecuile was withdrawn after pointedly refusing to budge an inch towards the stalls.

With Friday's experiences fresh on my mind, I almost fell off my chair while scanning Saturday's cards. Many of the races look fearsome. But, as my Dad used to say, "Whatever comes your way, do not fold, spindle or mutilate." Or, when he couldn't be bothered, "The Greeks have a word for it." Though I think in the latter case he meant, "expletive deleted, I'm busy!"


But, here goes....

Sloop Johnb would seem to have as good a chance in York's 3-10 as he had in yesterday's race had he run. But not only is he not quite as well in on the ratings (he's joint 2nd top on time and top on form in our ratings. Master of Disguise is top on speed) but also he is going a furlong further than I would deem ideal. Added to which there are a few equally progressive 3-Y-Os in opposition. All are capable of winning the race (they can be gleaned from the ratings).

Though (like Sloop Johnb) Master of Disguise has not won beyond 5f, his wins have intimated that he would be even better over the longer distance. He looked really good when outstaying Noble Storm up Sandown's stiff 5f (incidentally, I rate Noble Storm as Dutching material with Triple Aspect in Sandown's 3-25 Listed race). It is well known that Master of Disguise's trainer rates him very highly and I would think he and Sloop Johnb are the two to take to the field (I'll be betting both), closely followed by Dark Mischief whose last run can safely be ignored. Swiss Diva and The Kyllachy Kid are two for the long shot hopefuls among you.

Although he only won by a short head, Forte Dei Marmi (1-50 Sandown) looked a class apart from his rivals when he showed an impressive turn of foot at Goodwood last time. He overhauled the leaders in a matter of strides when he got a clear run and would have won very cosily had he not met trouble in running. Lesser horses would have struggled to get placed. Global and Dancourt appear the main dangers.

Mr Skipiton (6-20 Lingfield Turf) was steadily brought along on the all weather over the winter and repayed his trainer's patience with two good wins over Lingfields's 6f polytrack. But arguably his best run came last time on his debut turf run over Nottingham's 5f behind Raccoon. He chased the leaders all the way and stayed on well to be beaten about two lengths in fifth. He's had a good rest since (his two consecutive wins came a month apart) and this return to a more suitable 6f should help him get involved in the scrap to the line. He rates good each way value at the forecast 10/1 overnight.

Be lucky Saturday - you'll need to be.

Watch Out Bugner.....

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Thursday was 73% following Wednesday's 71%, Tuesday's meagre 58%, Monday's 77% and Sunday's 73%, an in running weekly average of 70.4% following the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings (except on Tuesday's at Redcar and Salisbury), then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races were pretty average, Thursday, with a couple of (5) graded long odds on top rated being beaten. There were eleven such races with seven being successful. Just two were won by the top rated horse. Five were won by the 2nd top - all but one being joint 2nd top. Four races were unsuccessful.

Well, reading the past few blogs, I certainly talk a good race. And recently I have awaited the blog selections results the same way as Richard Dunn must have awaited Joe Bugner's approach at the sound of the first bell in 1976 (one for the oldies, there).

The blinker bounce certainly came to the fore with Murcar who was backed all day down to long odds on and who was never in any place to attack off a moderate pace. Even though I know he wouldn't have won had he been given a ten length start, and though he showed definite promise of a Timeform Squiggle, I still can't fathom why he was raced that way after the style of his win the time before. Ability-wise I stand by my assertion that Jamie Spencer can never hope to be regarded within a million miles of the likes of Piggott, Eddery, Cauthen et al. He really should leave his posing for the bathroom mirror.

As for the "good thing", Bombina..... That race is just how racing works sometimes. She pulled hard and was never settled. Horses that run like she did can seem to be with a chance at the furlong pole but, invariably, the early pulling exertions begin to tell when push comes to shove. So her good finishing position means there are positives to be taken from the run. Maybe a faster pace would have suited her much better. Next time should also show that she is still progressing despite this setback.

To Friday, if I dare (Avoiding The Bombs).

Sloop Johnb (4-35 York) has been a good marker for 5F 3-Y-O form this season. Four of the five horses that have finished either 2nd or 3rd behind Sloop JohnB have all won next time out. He takes on better class, Friday, as well as taking on older horses for the first time. He has also been raised 5lbs for his last win but he is progressing fast, has already won over York's 5f on similar ground, is top rated on both of our handicap and speed ratings, and his trainer is in brilliant form. So, watch out Bugner..............................

Leceile (8-00 Goodwood) had two educational runs on the all weather last autumn and came into this season a horse promising to do well in handicaps. The maiden she won last time at Newcastle looked nothing special on paper but she battled well to win and the three horses filling the places behind her have all upheld the form well. Stanstill ran a good race in defeat at Pontefract on Monday, and Sanctuary (beaten five lengths) was just beaten by an 80 rated horse before winning an ordinary maiden last night at Haydock. There are a few who will be backed against her by dint of their connections, so the SP should be value.

Have a good day.

Don't Avoid This Bomb

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Wednesday was 71% following Tuesday's meagre 58%, Monday's 77% and Sunday's 73%, an in running weekly average of 69% following the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings (except on Tuesday's at Redcar and Salisbury), then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

There were nine (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday. Three were won by the top rated horse and three were won by the 2nd top - two of them joint. Three races were unsuccessful.

The blog has been lean, winner-wise, the past few days. Neither Frankie nor Spencer could win for us, Wednesday. Saloon ran as if he had just exited one he was so unwilling to pass his rival, and Mega Watt failed to generate anything (I know, the pun is awful).

To another day, Thursday..........................

Murcar (2-30 Nottingham) was transformed by blinkers when running away with a Newbury handicap last time and shouldn't be overburdened with his 8lbs rise in the weights. He was eased down once he had won his race and looks likely to overcome the dreaded "blinker bounce" and win again. Jamie Spencer hasn't a great record on the Cox horses but the trainer, whose horses are running well in the main, has an excellent course record. Monte Pattino and Shy seem the obvious dangers.

Later on Nottingham's card (4-45) Bombina looks good to follow up her Newmarket win. Looking at her form, it would seem her handicap mark is lower than it should be because she showed nothing when tackling listed class on her second run last year. Her win last time was the first race since. She won that quite comfortably under tender handling and looked as though her breeding would enable her to successfully tackle this extra two furlongs. There are a few inproving types in opposition, not least Inis Boffin and Teeky. But Bombina has the promise to improve even more herself.

Have a good day.

Some Mother's Really Do Have 'Em

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Tuesday fell below 65% for the first time to a meagre 58% due entirely to the afternoon's bad results at Redcar and Salisbury. This followed Monday's 77% and Sunday's 73%, an in running weekly average of 69% following the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings (except on Tuesday's at Redcar and Salisbury), then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races also suffered from the afternoon bad results on Tuesday. There were two such races in the afternoon and both were unsuccessful. There were a further three races in the evening and all three were successful. One was won by the top rated horse and two were won by the joint 2nd tops.

Tuesday showed how fickle racing can be on the odd occassion. The ratings were next to useless at Redcar and Salisbury - especially Salisbury. But in the evening they were in top form with a number of good top two winners that included, Lowther W 14/1, Embsay Crag W 11/1 and Tyrannosaurus Rex 11/1 - the latter nabbing Titus Andronicus on the line.

Titus Andronicus is begining to look like an almost perfect clone of Moor Lane (for those old enough to remember that useful horse). Titus seems to have speed to burn but more often than not he can't quite get home over 5f. He always seems to win at 4 and 4 and a half furlongs but can't sustain the rest of the run to the line. He will win more races but, like Moor Lane, he may never be able to hit the heights his ability promises.

The afternoon's debacle and the evening's success bear out quite a few things we said in our April 02 blog, Avoiding The Bombs. Read it again.

For Tuesday's racing, I said:

"Aromatic (3-55 Salisbury) and Ethics Girl (5-15 Redcar) are two fast improving fillies of differing abilities and will do well to lose after their recent good efforts."


Well, I got that right and wrong at the same time. They did do well to lose, after all..................

Wednesday I will be visiting mother all day, so my betting will be limited (I usually bet close to racetime).

If Lowther or Ben Chorley run (4-10 Haydock) one or t'other should win. If they are both non runners, I won't look any further.

A couple of easy last time out winners will be long odds on so are not very interesting. Brighton is neither a track I nor (in my opinion) any horse alive likes. Kempton is a form reader's nightmare most of the time. And Beverley is usually draw dependent............ have you noticed I'm struggling to find a good bet?

Well, the nearest I can get is Megawatt (4-40 Haydock), though even here I think the "Frankie Effect" could significantly lower the SP; and Saloon (2-10 Haydock) where the "Oooh, Bettee Effect" could seriously impinge on the SP.

Have an enjoyable day................

Here Come the Girls

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was 77% following Sunday's 73%, an in running weekly average of 75% following the previous two week's final weekly averages 76.7% and 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

There were four from five successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Two were won by the top rated horse - one joint top due to the original top rated being a non runner. Two were won by the 2nd top rated horse - one of them joint. The remaining race was unsuccessful.

Almaty Express was ridden all the way and did fairly well not to fold more tamely. Maybe he wants a sharper track like Catterick or Warwick to get that elusive turf win. He still has the ability and one day he will pop up at a good price on the turf.

On Tuesday, Aromatic (3-55 Salisbury) and Ethics Girl (5-15 Redcar) are two fast improving fillies of differing abilities and will do well to lose after their recent good efforts.

Tuesday also brings the quick return to the track of Titus Andronicus (8-45 Chester). He only just failed to win for the blog the other day but he showed he was still in good form. His front running tactics have a better chance of paying off on this very tight track.


Have a good Day

All Aboard Almaty

Apologies for no blog update yesterday. I was fiddling with the blog settings and nearly lost the whole lot. Late into the night, I decided enough was enough and went to bed, then relaxed all Sunday to chill out. So first, a quick summary of Saturday and Sunday.

SATURDAY

The combined top three for both the Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings produced a 71% win strike rate - lowered by their poor performance at Doncaster. However, the Speed Ratings produced a few good 2nd top winners: Pavershooz 28/1, River Captain 16/1, Indian Trail 11/1. So there were some highlights

The total combined handicap and Speed top three strike rate percentage for the week was 76.70 - the previous week's percentage was exactly 72.

I didn't bet either Marching Time or Aye Aye Digby because, as intimated the night before, they were no value on the day. So I luckily avoided two losers.

I cannot explain Captain Macarry's abysmal run. Yes, he did look slightly keen early, but he was beaten over 2f out and that is not the sign of a horse on good terms with himself. The amount he was eased when clearly beaten raises some thoughts. But sometimes you just have to accept results and move on. So, I will - to the Derby.

I was surprised that Sea The Stars was knocked from favouritism, but he looked the winner a long way out. The placed horses, headed by my forecast selection, Fame And Glory, were closing at the end but I think that was the winner pulling himself up. I can't claim any kudos for the forecast since it was probably the forecast pick of most of the country.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races were a lot better than the 71% the ratings produced. There were eleven from twelve successful races. Eight were won by the top rated horse, three by the 2nd top rated horse - two of them joints. The other race was unsuccessful (won by the 3rd top horse).

SUNDAY

The top three combined produced 73% of the winners but the (4) and (5) UK races bombed out after Saturday's good results. There were five such races and only two of them won, both by the 2nd top rated horse - one of them joint.

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You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

Tomorrow has a surreal Monday Morning Blues look about it. The races are decidedly unattractive in the main. I will be waiting until the last race of the day at my favourite and local track, Pontefract. In one of my previous blogs I complained that many winning All Weather horses rarely win on turf. My Monday selection is one of those horses. The race is not very good quality and looks primed for a high priced winner. With that in mind, I go for an each way bet on Almaty Express (9-20 Pontefract).

He's run almost exclusively on the All Weather the past two and a half years and his forays on turf have not been very noteworthy in the main. He's usually a ten pounds better horse on the All Weather but he's been dropped twelve pounds since his last turf run at Beveley thirteen months ago (at a time when he's been raised nine pounds for two Wolverhampton wins). He isn't a worse horse since that time and he actually ran a better race than it looks at Beverley if you just blandly read the form book.

He is a few pounds too high on the All Weather which is probably the reason he is making a rare turf appearance. In his favour is the recent unjarring of the ground due to recent rain. I think this is the one time he has a good chance on turf. The handicapper has been very kind and the draw is perfect for his front running style. There are other front runners in the race, most notably the course specialist Mr Wolf. But when Almaty Express won earlier in the year (when not leading all the way) , it was because the pace was suicidal. That is a possible scenario tomorrow.

Have a good day.

Aye, Aye Captain

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Friday was a very high 87% (only five races failed to provide a top 3 winner) following Thursday's 72%, Wednesday's 85%, Tuesday's 76%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 76%, an in running weekly average of just under 78% following last week's final weekly average of exactly 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

The (4) and (5) UK graded races weren't as successful, Friday. There were nine such races. Two were won by the clear top rated horse, four were won by the 2nd top rated horse - one of them joint. Three races were unsuccessful.

Midday ran her heart out but just wasn't good enough on the day. Under current rules there was never a doubt that Sariska would keep the race. But those of you old enough to remember Bill Wightman's handicapper, Air Trooper, know that the old rules would have seen her thrown out. She took out at least two other horses when she was allowed to drift left early in the straight. In the USA and, possibly, France, she wouldn't have kept the race. Having said that, I wouldn't change our rules for either of those two. It seems that if you so much a sneeze in the direction of an opposing horse in those countries, you are disqualified. Thankfully, we are not so daft.

The bafflement of racing doesn't ease up. Celestial Dream never looked the same horse as when she won. We all have our off days - and this blog has had a few of those lately................

Saturday is fiercely competitive. If you are a form reader, you would say that Fame and Glory is the likely O'Brien horse that could topple the current Derby favourite. But if you go by jockey bookings or a jockeys choice between mounts, you'd go for Rip Van Winkle as the only possible danger to Sea The Stars. I personally will go with the form book and nominate Fame and Glory to follow Sea The Stars home.

Aye Aye Digby (5-05 Epsom) and Marching Time (1-25 Epsom) look likely to bookend the meeting. But they may be little value in such competitive races. So I will wait on those two hoping to get 9/2 to 5/1 on both.

Titus Andronicus (4-05 Musselburgh) had four subsequent winners behind him when he won impressively on his seasonal debut. He was beaten by one of those last time out (Sloop John B) but that was on unsuitable gound and I expect him to return to that seasonal debut form on this sounder surface. The possible overnight rain would only be a worry if it got deep in the ground, but overnight, he looks the likely winner of the race.

My normal small Saturday each way punt is Captain Macarry (2-05 Doncaster). He easily beat Salerosa ( a winner twice since) over Beverley's extended 7f before running an fairish 3rd over that track's mile and half a furlong. He was simply running over a trip too far, but the way he kept plugging away showed he is still in good form. The return to this shorter trip will help him no end and I can see him being in the thick of it in the closing stages.

Be careful out there........

Weapon of the Weak

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Thursday was 72% following Wednesday's 85%, Tuesday's 76%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 76%, an in running weekly average of just under 76% following last week's final weekly average of exactly 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

There were seven from nine successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday. Two were won by the clear top rated horse, five were won by the 2nd top rated horse - two of them joint. Two races were unsuccessful.

Thursday was a strange betting day with the odd unfathomable result, the odd unforseen (surprising) gamble and a hint of the growing cynicism of punters with so much racing. The first two happen frequently enough to accept as a quirk of racing. And while the third is also in the same category, it unfortunately also provides punters with too easy an excuse to point fingers when their selection fails to win.

With so much racing, there is no way a normal working punter can keep up with the whole of the form book. Which is where we come in. We dedicate virtually the whole working day, Sunday to Saturday, over 360 days a year, purely on form reading. So if anyone is up to date with form, we are - though even then we still get it wrong enough times to cause us continuously to improve our methods.

Many punters now specialise in certain race types rather than just read the form of a host of races daily. If you work like normal folk during the week, don't subscribe to TowerForm, and haven't yet specialised, you will be a rare breed of successful punter if wall-to-wall racing hasn't affected your profitability.

As for punters, so for jockeys. Many jockeys, including the so-called "workaday" jockeys cannot hope to be fully informed about every single horse they ride. They are totally focussed on the job during the day, and then try to relax in the few hours before bedtime after they have finished riding at their second meeting of the day. They are enveloped by their work and rely an awful lot on both agents and trainers to discover the characteristics and quirks of many horses they ride. If they are attached to a stable then they will know the horses, having ridden them in work or seen them in work. Otherwise, they have never seen, never mind ridden, most of the horses they are expected to win on.

Somewhere in Utopia is a place where racehorses are machines and, ridden by robot jockeys, run exactly as the programming predicts. The horse all run true, there are no pace variances, no blocked runs, no undulations, and definitely no bookies because the jockeys all ride perfect races on perfect horses and every result is as predictable as the orbit of the Earth around the Sun.

But we don't live in a mythical world. We live in the real world where the vagaries of human existence produce not automated causes and effects but random events caused by the fraility of human thought and deed. No-one is a perfect human being devoid of error. Every aspect of human existence is directed by the frailty of human actions.

So why is it that when a horse loses, the jockey should be at best fined and suspended and at worst, be taken out and shot at dawn. If a jockey makes a genuine mistake during a race and then loses that race because of it, it is a normal (natural, if you will) human event. not a conspiritorial action.

If you tend to criticise jockeys in a way that questions their integrity, then you should stop betting now. Don't even go racing. Horse racing needs you like football needs a yob.

If you criticise a jockey in a way that denegrates their character, then you should leave horse racing alone and go try the roulette wheel instead because racing needs you like politics needs the BNP.

There is nothing inherently wrong with criticism, it is how that criticism is formed and voiced that is the problem. Too much is based in cynicism which has historically been defined as, "an attitude of jaded negativity, and a general distrust of the integrity or professed motives of other people." The modern-day definition is similarly defined, "a distrust toward ethical and social values, especially when there are high expectations which are unfulfilled."

Cynicism is not an attractive virtue. It misrepresents a true situation. The reasons why horses lose are many. To opt for easy criticism of a jockey highlights a general misconception. The type of misconception that in other more serious circumstances causes mobs of people to daub "paedo" over a paediatricians home. It is nasty and unbecoming. It is probably why the BNP will do well in the Euro elections. But that is digression.

There is nothing wrong in questioning whether a jockey has the ability to ride as well as others. Different levels of ability are extant in all walks of life, from the warehouse to the office, to the police force, to footballers to jockeys. It is not cynicism, it is airing a view about an ability, not a view about a conspiracy.

Not every footballer is a Premiership player (including some who are already playing there). Not every trainer is Vincent O'Brien. Not every jockey is Tony McCoy. It is a fact of life. It is not cynicism. Accept this. If you expect every jockey every day to ride a perfect race, you should stop gambling. You have a problem that needs addressing.

I have criticised jockeys and trainers in the past. But from an ability viewpoint only. I have always maintained that the vast majority of jockeys and trainers range from average to competent. That is, as I said earlier, a fact of life that cannot be denied. Many will have heard the oft quoted, "anyone can play the piano but how many are concert pianists." That is the basis of all my criticisms. It is my recognition that not all footballers, athletes, jockeys,. trainers have the same level of abilities. They differ in competence - as we all do.

So, the next time you call for a jockeys head on a platter, just remember that other old saying, "There but by the grace of God go I."


To Thursday's results, where Jafaru was beaten into 2nd by a horse banned from racing in Ireland she is so slow. Newmarket Story really is a story. Seven years old, ran four times in three years - the last time two years ago - and beaten over 185 lengths in those four runs in Ireland. She was totally unmolested in the market and ran as though she is a ten pound better horse than this class - albeit selling class. It was surreal...........

Invincible Lad usually runs closer to the pace but his outside draw made that difficult to achieve. He never got beyond 3rd - despite the commentator saying he took it up a furlong out - but he stayed on well enough to suggest he will soon be winning again.

On to Friday and the start of the Derby meeting. The Oaks (4-05) is more open than is generally accepted. Sariska is worthy of her place in the market as is Rainbow View, Perfect Truth and Phillipina. But I am sticking with my old friend Henry Cecil. He is an Oaks veteran having saddled eight previous winners. On bare form, his Midday has a bit to find. But she has improved so much since her debut 2nd here, that it is not unreasonable to expect more improvement from her. She won so easily at Lingfield that it is hard to accurately assess her - even though she beat some average opponents. When a horse wins so easily, it is always best to view it from the point where the opponents were beaten. Even though she only took up the running 2f out, in truth her opponents were beaten before they got to the bottom of the hill turning in. Had she been ridden fully out, she would have probably tripled her final winning distance. A further plus is the fact of both her Lingfield racetrack experience and her familiarity with Epsom's undulations.

Celestial Dream (9-05 Bath) comes from a historical sprinting family. Oasis Dream from the famous Northern Dancer line is her sire and her family includes such great sprinters as Lochsong, Lochangel and Peckitts Well. So it will be very disappointing if she doesn't progress well beyond her current lowly handicap mark during this season. She looks the bet of the day based on her win last time. She quickened in a flash and was eased down even before her rider had to get serious. It is doubtful the 6lb penalty can stop her.

Have a good day.

Ryan's Express Is Invincible

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Wednesday was 85% (only five races failed to provide the winner) this followed Tuesday's 76%, Monday's 70% and Sunday's 76%, an in running weekly average of just under 77% following last week's final weekly average of exactly 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us. Today there were six clear top rated winners at Leicester and a 2nd top 20/1 winner in Edgeworth at Windsor.

There were eight from nine successful (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday. Six were won by the clear top rated horse, two were won by the clear 2nd top rated horse and one race was unsuccessful.

You can confidently draw a thick black line through Acrostic's run on Wednesday. He tried to get through a gap a furlong or so out and was looking likely to burst through to win. But the gap wasn't really wide enough and he was hit over the nose by a flailing whip. Thereafter, he looked reticent when asked to go forward - his nose was probably stinging badly from the whip strike. He was full of running at the finish and will certainly be carrying my money next time out. There was another unlucky horse in the race, Collateral Damage, but he has frequently flattered to deceive and if the two meet again soon, I will be confident that the progressive Acrostic will come out best.

To Thursday: Invincible Lad did the blog a favour over a week ago and though Sandown's 6-45 represents a step up in class, he should have enough talent to win. There are enough quick early paced horses in the field to ensure he gets the fast pace he needs.

Invincible Lad's rider (Ryan Moore) should have an afternoon winner for his father on Lingfield's turf in the 4-20. In a race that is a seller by any other name Jafaru is one of few in the race who is suited both by the ground and the distance. He showed a lot of guts to hold on last time at Brighton, and this fairly similar, quirky switchback track should also suit him well.

Have a good day.

No Handicap Puzzle

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Tuesday was 76% following Monday's 70% and Sunday's 76%, an in running weekly average of 73% following last week's final weekly average of exactly 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us. Today there were six clear top rated winners at Leicester and a 2nd top 20/1 winner in Edgeworth at Windsor.

There were five (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, one was won by the joint 2nd top rated horse and one race was unsuccessful.

I got it wrong on Tuesday. It wasn't half of the apparent good bets that would disappoint, it was a third - though it would be churlish to say Exotic Beauty disappointed. She ran a fair race against a much better debutante. Joinedupwriting won at the surprisingly good SP of 5/2 and he had to work hard for the win but he held on well in the end. For a Dancer also ran fairly well against a horse who has come back to racing in very good form.

Tuesday dosn't look as clear cut as it first appeared for Tuesday and there are a lot of tricky races. Discanti (3-50 Ayr) looks good but the prospect of his being overbacked puts me off.

Thought good enough to be entered in last year's Cambridgeshire (didn't run in the end), Acrostic (8-10 Ripon) doesn't look overburdened with top weight. He was brought along steadily in his debut season last year and progressed very quickly. I had thoughts then that he was a typical improving Cumani handicapper who would be better in 2009. So I am not going to go back on my word. The main danger of many is simply his race fitness. But with the Cumani team running well at present I don't think that will hold him back. He hasn't been entered for the Hunt Cup (Cumani prefers Riggins) but I suspect other good summer mile handicaps are headed his way. This will hopefully be the first.

Choices, Three....

You can view our two main services (Handicap Ratings with the Speed Ratings and Select) free for seven days by registering HERE

The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was 70% following Sunday's 76%, an in running weekly average of 73% following last week's final weekly average of exactly 72%. If a horse isn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it is highly likely it won't win. You can see an explanation of the Handicap Ratings HERE and an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. The Speed Ratings are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us. Today there were six clear top rated winners at Leicester and a 2nd top 20/1 winner in Edgeworth at Windsor.

There were five (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Two were won by the clear top rated horse, two were won by the clear 2nd top rated horse and one race was unsuccessful.

Perfect Friend looked like she was going to win comfortably only to be mugged on the line by Tikka Masala. The winner ran around quite a lot during the race and, assuming she now gets her act fully together, she looks to be a horse to follow.

Champain Sands ran exactly as hoped and swooped late to win at 100/30. The old lad still has another win in him one day during this season. The only unsure thing about him is knowing when that day will be.

There look to be a few nice winners waiting, Tuesday. Past experience tells me that half of them will disappoint so my choice three would be Joinedupwriting (3-00 Ripon) who has the essential experience of Ripon's very quirky track: Exotic Beauty (6-50 Folkestone) a half sister to two winners and who ran a very eyecatching debut at Sandown: and Nordwind.... only joking.........For A Dancer (8-05 Sedgefield) who posted a promise packed handicap debut win at Uttoxeter last month.

Have a good day.