Vaughan Alive to Tuesday

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three strike rate for Monday was 70%, following Sunday's 81%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

There were nine (4) and (5) UK graded races, Monday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse, and three were won by the 2nd top rated - two of them joint.

Kingdom Of Fife proved that he should have won the Chester race. He won very comfortably indeed from a field of fairly good handicappers.

Perfect Silence wasn't as fit as I had thought she would be. She ran like a winner until the pressure was applied and was clearly not 100% race fit. Training fitness and competition fitness are not the same thing - as any athlete will tell you. So I fully expect her to improve quite a lot from this run. I have to admit I didn't back her in the end. I don't care if the horse is Nijinsky, Secretariat or Man O'War, I do not bet odds on on seasonal debuts. It is the way to the poor house and I have bills to pay.....

Tim Vaughan has a knack of improving horses from other stables and has another improver in Dead Or Alive (6-50 Huntingdon). Bought out of the Hourigan stable last summer he was produced to win two fair points, ran 2nd in a good novice hunter chase, then produced a gutsy run to beat Nostringsattached earlier this month at Plumpton. It is clear Tim Vaughan has got the best out of him and he looks a likely one for Tuesday. A little bit of rain won't go against him but a downpour would put the race in the air. But as it stands tonight, with Richard Johnson having a healthy strike rate on the stable's horses (currently 67% on the Vaughan chasers this 2009/10 season so far), he looks fairly good bet. The danger seems to be Saafend Rocket who is another improver and whose chance would be improved should any rain get deep into the ground.

Invincible Lad improved last year to win five times on the All Weather and Turf. He is fifteen pounds higher than his last turf win but a couple of things point my eye to his running a big race in Leicester's 4-30. First, Richard Hughes is not used much by the Alston stable but when he is the win record is high. Second, and more relevantly, he ran his seasonal debut at Thirsk like the epitomic horse needing one run to put him spot on. He ran very well until fitness told and he faded in the last furlong. That run will have made him cherry ripe for this and he now has the chance to show he is at his 4-Y-O prime.

Have a good day.