Take Aim on Saturday

The sudden barometric change, Friday, produced a few weird results and impacted on the combined performance of the speed and handicap ratings. The combined results of the top three dipped below 60% to 58%. I think Nostadamus and Mother Sipton in unison would have had trouble predicting some of the winners today.

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The barometric change also affected the (4) and (5) UK graded races, with seven being successful out of twelve races. Five races were won by the clear top rated and two by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint. Five races were unsuccessful.

Misheer showed battling qualities to win by a very short head, and Ask proved he's best first time up by winning convincingly. Sana Abel is now clearly not as good as her breeding would suggest. There is the possibilty that the softened ground was against her, but she did fold rather tamely. And the other Jarvis horse I thought would win, Cape Express, also ran a fairly lifeless race. But he should not be discarded yet. He may be worth a try over further.

Saturday beckons with the possibility of more rain softening the ground even further. The ratings themselves will not be affected as any horse standing its ground will be deemed to be suited to the ground. The forecast and possible changed ground has been factored into the ratings.

That said, I will be waiting until closer to race time for many of my bets. But as it stands overnight, Aqwaal (3-10 Newbury) is proven over rain affected ground and was a ready winner last time over Sandown's stiff 10f. He's gone up 9lbs in the handicap but the manner of his win suggested he is capable of even more improvement and Newbury should suit him well.

In Newbury's 3-45, I like the look of Main Aim. He didn't see the racecourse until last summer and improved quickly enough to be thought capable of handling listed class but proved not yet ready for the task. He has been kept in training with a trainer who is peerless with 4-Y-Os and older horses. With a winter of his growing to maturity, I expect him to take this before ultimately improving this year to be capable of winning higher class races.

Floor Show (8-10 Doncaster) is not the finished article yet which makes his past two wins look better than they read in the form book. On the bare form he should dead-heat with Ricoh (who he beat last time) but I expect him to confirm that form. For a horse likely to continue progressing, he is a huge overnight forecast price (20/1). That could be because there are some big stables involved in the race. Even so, he looks too tempting an each way opportunity to miss