The Handicap Ratings and the Speed Ratings ended Wednesday with a bookies nightmare. In the last race of the day at Sedgefield both the handicap and the speed ratings clear top rated Moyne Pleasure which won at the massive odds of 40/1, the complete outsider of the field - but not in the minds of TowerForm subscribers.
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The Speed Ratings continue to be a very useful addition to our handicaps and both are currently showing a combined top three percentage strike rate of well over 65%. Wednesday's figure was 75% following Tuesday's figure of 71%, Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE.
There were eight (4) and (5) UK graded races, Wednesday. Four were won by the clear top rated horse and two were won by the 2nd top rated - one of them joint 2nd top. The other two races were unsuccessful.
Lawaaheb ran averagely, Wednesday, never looking likely to win.
On Thursday, some people claim that Jamie Spencer should have made a faster pace when leading on Bin End (3-25 Goodwood) last time. But it was a very good ride in my humble opinion. The horse was very keen on his winning debut and Spencer made sure he got him settled better. That he lost and finished a close 4th was more down to the tenacity of the others (including Barwell Bridge) than any deficiency in either the horse or the rider's tactics. He looks likely to run a big race tomorrow and will be carrying my money with a fair amount of confidence.
Leocorno (8-35 Sandown) will be the horse to watch but not back at the likely long odds on she will probably start. She has an entry in the Oaks and if she is to make that engagement she really should win this in a hack canter off the lowly mark of 78.
Another handicapper with a classic entry (Derby) is Kimberley Downs (6-20 Sandown). But he looks more like a useful long distance handicapper than a middle distance classic winner. It is usually not my betting style to bet 12f and above 3-Y-O handicappers, but he promises to rise a fair bit in the handicap as the season progresses. So his current mark of 83 is very reasonable. He should at least place and I will be looking there to supplement a win bet: I don't think he will start at long enough odds for an each way bet.
Have a good Day.
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