It's All Creek To Me

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The Handicap Ratings and Speed Ratings combined top three percentage strike rate dipped below 65%, Friday to 64%. Thursday's figure was 82% following Wednesday's figure of 75%, Tuesday's figure of 71%, Monday's figure of 73% and Sunday's 75% - a week's average so far (six days) of over 73%. If a horse wasn't in the top three rated of the handicaps or the speed ratings, then it was highly likely it didn't win. When including the fourth top rated of each service the figure was well into the 80s%. You can see an explanation of the Speed Ratings HERE. They are an addition to the handicaps at no extra cost and you can subscribe HERE. There has never been a better time to join us.

There were seven (4) and (5) UK graded races, Thursday. Three were won by the clear top rated horse and two were won by the joint 2nd top rated. The remaining two races were unsuccessful.

Ziggy Lee didn't enjoy that win at all. I don't think any horse enjoys Brighton, but he won simply because he was the only horse in the race in reasonable recent form. The 7/2 SP was a pleasant shock since I rated him a 6/4 chance.

Full of Love ran a very good race to finish 2nd at 11/2. He was never going to get the race in the stewards room but I suppose it gave temporary hope to people who didn't actually see the race. It would have been a major suprise had the winner been thrown out. He won the race on merit.

Saturday beckons with some good looking races. I expect Delegator to confirm English Guineas form in the Irish equivalent race. Recharge is a sound alternative if you want a likely placed horse to improve past the two favourites.

The best 3-Y-O handicap of the season at Haydock (3-40) looks bound for the Stoute yard in the shape of Desert Creek. He won effectively enough last time to suggest that his updated mark of 87 is reasonable enough. There are a host of dangers such as Fareer but of the overnight lesser fancied horses, Thief of Time now has the ground that could see him achieve his potential and thus reward each way backers at a fairish price (generally 10/1 overnight).

I would have gone for Bouvardia (3-25 Newmarket) had it not been for Proclaim being in the race. Both horses are on an upward curve with Proclaim probably improving at a faster rate. I see a dutch bet in the making.

Waterdale (8-00 Cartmel) wouldn't be the obvious horse to bet. Moderate, one of the lowest rated hurdlers in the country, from a small stable that has had four winners in five years, and bottom weight in a selling handicap hurdle at a remote low grade North Western racecourse. But he has fewer convictions than most of the field and ran a promising race (in selling race terms) when 6th last time at Wetherby. The curious nature of Cartmel can sometimes throw up unlikely results and since Waterdale is weighted to dead heat with one of the race favourites (Moon Melody) he is worth a small each way punt for fun.

Have a good Weekend.