Faith in the Lady

Our new Speed Ratings were on fire, Monday, giving 22 top 2 winners and producing a 68% top 3 win strike rate. The handicap ratings did equally well and combined the top 3 rated from each gave 76% winners. You can view the Speed Ratings for free until May 11 HERE. Or you can view our two main services (Ratings and Select) free for seven days simply by registering HERE.

There were only four (4) and (5) grade races in the UK, Monday, with two being successful and two unsuccessful. The clear top and clear 2nd top rated won the two successful races.

The exchanges are a very good thing for punters and they can tell huge stories about a horse's chance. Some drifters actually win and make a mockery of the belief that they are destined to lose because the exchanges are laying them. That's fine, but what really sticks in my craw are those drifters that run poorly. There is absolutely nothing sinister about 99% of exchange drifters, but many horses that are well fancied overnight, drift on the day for no apparent form reason, then run badly. Such a case was Just Timmy Marcus. On all known form (even accounting for it being his first run on turf) he had a major chance. But he drifted all morning, opened at 15/2 on the course then drifted even more to 10/1. The signs were not good. But what came next really shouldn't be allowed. The horse began slowly (tactic?) and never showed any enthusiasm in the race. If he'd run fairly well until the closing stages and then got beaten a fair way, it would be acceptable. But the fact that Just Timmy Marcus ran so absurdly badly means that someone, somewhere, knew the horse wasn't right. And if that was the case, he should not have been allowed to run. I'm definitely not saying the race was a "Hillside Girl" scenario but it absolutely shows that punters are deigned an irrelevance.

But we move on....

Taarab drifted enough (in an un-sinister way) for me to plunge on African Cheetah. He won very easily. I don't think he made that much improvement (as the Racing Post analyst seemed to intimate). If you read this post, you'll know that the horse is progressing along normal Johnston lines. I actually think that Taarab ran a race that told he hasn't improved a lot over the winter.

There seem to be a few short priced possibilities, Tuesday, but I will place my faith in Lady Brora in Southwell's 3-30. She was quietly backed on her seasonal debut and looked for all the world as if the run would greatly improve her fitness. She looks good.

Have a good Tuesday.