Monday, 27 April 2009

Two Negatives Make a Positive.

Our new Speed Ratings produced a stunning 40/1 clear top rated winner, Monday, in Run For Ede's. You can view them for free HERE

The (4) and (5) graded races went the opposite way and dropped below a 50% win ratio. There were ten such races. One was won by the clear top rated, three by the 2nd top rated (two of them joint) and six races were unsuccessful. A bad day.

Barney McGrew was disappointingly withdrawn from his race. And I was all excited and tingly about his prospects....

There's an interesting race to watch at Bath. The listed sprint (5-05) is chock full of good sprinters on their day. The best of them, I think anyway, are Look Busy, Pusey Street Lady and Starlit Sands. On early season form I would side with Pusey Street Lady. On overall form it would be Look Busy. On promise of better things to come it would be Starlit Sands. But the fact that Pusey Street Lady will have the race run to her liking and is proven race fit, she has to be my pick. Plus any rainfall won't affect her at all since she runs well on all types of ground and should find the stiff 5f serving her well in the closing stages.

It is not usually wise to take All Weather form seriously when reading form for turf races. But Postmaster won so well at Southwell in his debut handicap that I cannot overlook him in Nottingham's 8-05. The rain that has been sweeping the North today will have eased the ground slightly at the course, so the ground shouldn't be a worry. The only two negatives (and they are big ones) are that his trainer hasn't had a winner in five years from eighteen attempts with 3-Y-Os at Nottingham. And his jockey has a similar bad record over five years, not riding a 3-Y-O winner at the course in nineteen tries (mathematically that's a good sign, isn't it.... -18 multiplied by -19...?). They have to have that first winner sometime, but if he drifts on the day, I will take serious note.

Have a good Tuesday.

No comments: