Twice Over To Repeat

There were six (4) and (5) graded races, Wednesday. Two were won by the clear top rated horse, and three by the 2nd top rated horse, one of them joint 2nd top. One was unsuccessful which, ironically, was our "banker" dutch.

My first reaction to the defeat of Native Ruler in Newmarket's 1-50 was one of disappointment. But after reviewing a recording of the race a number of times, I eventually considered it an excellent debut. He showed a willing attitude but had problems finding the right leg. He kept changing from off fore to near fore but once he found his leg in the final stages he ran on encouragingly. It was said post-race that he may have been better suited to slightly easier ground (good as opposed to the good to firm he encountered here). But I think there was a certain amount of "what do I do here?" when he was asked for his full effort. Unfortunately, when it clicked in his mind and he found his leg, it was all too late. Remembering that Henry Cecil improved the 1993 Derby winner Commander in Chief almost 40lbs after he won this race on his debut, all is not yet lost. I expect him to reach the heights his breeding promises. Whether those heights will include the Derby is still open to question but it is not impossible to achieve. I await his next run with huge interest.

Fantasia demolished a fairish field of fillies in the Nell Gwyn. But she looks unlikely to challenge Rainbow View in the English Guineas. She is in the same ownership as Rainbow View and we all know what that means. They won't meet because the scenario looks to be that connections will be looking for a clean sweep of the major European Guineas and Oaks (depending on how each wins the guineas- if each wins). A tall task to say the least but it is a scenario connections no doubt will be very seriously considering. Greedy sods!

Thursday promises to be just as informative as Wednesday. The Craven Stakes (3-35) doesn't look as straightforward as the Nell Gwyn on paper. But the worst kept secret so far this season is that Delegator has been extremely impressive on the gallops. His form in relation to the others gives him a winning chance anyway, but if the reports are to be believed, he is over the line now. But no-one can ever discount a Michael Stoute Craven runner. Glass Harmonium won a minor maiden at Yarmouth last year with huge authority and was marked down by many as a horse to watch as a 3-Y-O. Sir Michael has won this race with similar unexposed types before and the horse should not be discounted. I expect Delegator and Glass Harmonium to be the 1-2 in the race. The run of Liberation on Wednesday augurs badly for the chances of City Style and if he manages to win you can completely disregard the race as a pointer to the Guineas.

Elsewhere on the card, Twice Over looks good to follow last year's Craven win with a victory in The Earl of Sefton (4-10). Henry Cecil has an excellent record with 4-Y-Os and I just can't see him being beaten - though I have said that before....

Have a good Thursday.