Tricky Saturday

The (4) and (5) graded races again began slowly, Friday, with two of the first three failing. But they picked up again later. There were nine such races, seven were successful, two unsuccessful. The seven wins included five clear top rated wins and two 2nd top wins (one joint).

I have to say that one of the losing races was a horrible race for lovers of the sport. Two horses died providing us with entertainment. I also have to say (and this is a long standing view) that if the ground description in NH racing has the word "Firm" in it, it should be abandoned without further thought. If you don't understand why I feel this way, just try an experiment. Put a box in a grass field. During deepest winter run to the box and jump over it. Notice the stress on your ankle and knee joints. Repeat the experiment in the height of summer. I think you know what I mean.

The official going at Ayr was good. But they had been watering a firm track. Doing this can lead to the track being slippery and horses can struggle at points of the course with traction. This was clearly the case with the two horses that slipped up near the home bend. Sadly, one slip was fatal. This is the ultimate danger of watering a firm track. It happens on the flat as well. The problem as I see it is that watering too much during the year can cause the grass to need shallower roots. This makes the grass looser and slippier. It is time they stopped over watering NH tracks and simply banned racing on Firm and Good to Firm ground. I would certainly welcome that - not sure that inveterate gamblers would, though.

Father Time ran much as I expected. The heart was willing but the legs wouldn't go fast enough. He ran exactly as if he needed the run - as Henry Cecil's horses have been running in the main. But it is interesting to note that his maiden winner was his second string ridden by a second string jockey (Queally was on the beaten Cecil favourite, Hyades). Another nail...?

Saturday doesn't look a day for the faint hearted with two highly competitive handicaps (Scottish National and the Newbury Spring Cup) and two wide open Classic trials.

The Spring Cup brings back together a number of Lincoln runners plus some who failed to make the cut and ran in the Spring Mile. Zaahid won't be as inconvenienced by the softening ground as many think, neither will Mia's Boy. So I expect those to confirm the form with those behind in the Lincoln. Manassas who won the Spring Mile will be a massive danger to all, but the one that peaks my each way interest is top weight Mawatheeq. The only time he has run in a handicap was when he absolutely trounced a good field of Class 4 handicappers. Athough this is much higher class, he has bags of scope and should be at his prime this season.

Apparently rejected by Richard Hills who favours last years 3rd, Zaahid, Mawatheeq is a horse of far greater potential and is so highly regarded by the Maktoum team that they have entered him in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and the Group 1 Juddmonte. It won't be that outstanding a result if he wins because, though he's top weight, the handicap is pretty compressed with only 12lbs separating top from bottom. And if he doesn't end up more than 6lbs better than European Dream or 7lbs better that Cobo Bay, for example I, and I expect, the Maktoums will be shocked.

Though his trainer has concerns about the ground, it shouldn't be any problem since many of his sire's offspring have won top class races on good to soft and soft - most notably Dayjur. But just in case, I will be holding back until he is a confirmed runner. But if he runs, I will be having an each way interest (currently 14/1).

Maoineach should post a good run in the Fred Darling but the race looks far too competitive for me to be confident of anything. There are about half a dozen possible for the Greenham with Lord Shanakill currently being ahead of his field on the handicap. But many of these will have improved a lot over the close season and it is a matter of luck knowing whether any of them have improved past Lord Shanakill, Finjaan and Shaweel.

The Scottish Grand National sets the poser it sets almost every year - which horse acts best on the good, fast ground. There were crowds of people crowing "what use are handicappers" after a horse 20lbs out of the handicap won the race last year. The laughter was deafening. But it showed a gross ignorance of horse racing.

First - and pretty basic, I think, is the fact that horses are not automatons. They are not like cars that move effortlessy along when you press the pedal. They are flesh and blood. One muffled voice - mine - went unheard. The fact is the ground was an unknown for most of the field and, because of the likely going, many top horses defected. This left just three -yes, you heard right - just three horses in the handicap proper. Every other horse was out of the handicap. And only a handful were less than 10lbs out of the handicap. Most were between 10 and 28lbs out of the handicap and the winner, Iris De Balme was stuck in the middle of them on 20lbs out.

So it wasn't the horrendous "handicapping shocker" that many made out. The loudest critics were those who know absolutely nothing about horse racing other than there is a bookie in their village. Rant over!

Horses just out of the novice stage have a very good record in the race and there are a number of likely contenders on that score this year (a proper handicap because only two are out of the handicap proper!). The best of them appear to be Chief Dan George, Tricky Trickster and West End Rocker. Tricky Trickster is my pick of the three. At first sight it seems Paddy Brennan has abandoned him to ride the stable's other contender, Hello Bud. But this horse has a touch of class and has a good amateur taking a valuable 7lbs out of the saddle. He won well at Cheltenham in a race that has produced winners and placed horses in this race before (he had Nine De Sivola ten lengths behind). This race was earmarked for him shortly after. He'll do for me.

Have a good Saturday.