Saturday Racing (but not as we know it, Jim)

Well, my day off passed quickly. The last day off since Christmas and the last day off until Christmas. So, true to form, I wasted it. Spent most of the day with a Stella in my right hand and the remote in my other. The day went so quickly, I can only think I must have been enjoying myself. And, though I did nothing of note, I did manage to both catch up on and watch favourite episodes of some of my favourite TV shows (Trailer Park Boys, The Office (American), Ideal, and Red Dwarf). Bliss....

Saturday looks more like a mid-winter-mid-week sort of day. And while Kempton has higher grade racing than usual for the All Weather, I am not as enthusiastic as I should be. This is mainly because my absolute least favourite racecourse is Kempton. I prefer Fakenham and Fontwell many times more than the very poor, very unattractive, and frequently unpredictable Kempton surface.

There is no Fillies Guineas Trial this year but the Easter Stakes remains. For those of you who actually like Kempton, there are a couple of fairly interesting horses running Saturday. Scuffle in the 2-40 Listed race (replacement for the Masaka) and Saint Arch in the 3-10 Easter Stakes.

Scuffle took some notable scalps (in the context of today's race) when gaining a hat trick last summer and looked as though she would prosper this year. Though she disappointed in her last race in October (probably unsuited by the tacky ground) she has a lot in her favour today. There are, of course a handful of dangers but they are all more exposed than her. Scuffle is relatively unexposed and only normal winter improvement should see her win - notwithstanding the unpredictability of Kempton's track.

Saint Arch is a typical unexposed Mark Johnston horse, big, strong and full of scope. He was impressive when he won here two weks ago and, unlike almost every other All Weather horse, looks likely to rise to higher levels. The massive danger here is Captain Ramius who is unbeaten at the track and already has a listed win to his credit (at Dundalk). But it was very hard not to be impressed by Saint Arch's win last time. These should fight out the finish with Shampagne and Sohcahtoa ready to pounce if Kempton's track makes this a ridiculous form race - as it has far too many times in the past. But if you like to bet at Kempton, Scuffle and Saint Arch should run well for you.

Elsewhere, it is all NH and not very inspiring. Jorveybrook should perform well in Carlisle's 4-30 but there is an each way teaser in the 3-25: Royal Mackintosh. He is a consistent stayer who has won his share and has an excellent record at Carlisle (form figures at the track 11215). The only disappointing race he's run at the track came on heavy after a hard race the time before, so he can be excused that run. Though the balance of his form indicates he prefers give in the ground, he has run excellent races on good and good to firm. And he's had a good rest since that poorish run. I think he can gain a place in a very open race.

For those of you who may not know, there are also two Derbies and a Derby trial Saturday.

In the USA, Keeneland's Bluegrass Stakes (10-15pm) looks pretty open to me with half a dozen horses in with a chance. The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park (11-41pm) seems a more straightforward duel between Win Willy and Old Fashioned. Win Willy produced a big shock at 56/1 when overturning the 2/5 favourite Old Fashioned over course and distance last time. Normally, you'd expect the form to be freakish and readily overturnable. But the way Win Willy actually won, suggests he is capable of confirming the two and a quarter length win - despite being 5lbs worse off this time.

For early birds there is the Australian Derby from Randwick on ATR at 6-40 am Saturday morning. This may not be as clear cut as the betting might suggest. Nonetheless, it will not surprise me if the first three in the Rosehill Guineas filled the same 1,2,3 positions here Metal Bender, Sousa, and Rock Kingdom.

Have a good Saturday.