Rising to the Top

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There were six (4) and (5) graded races, Wednesday, five of them being successful. Four were won by the clear top rated, one by the joint 2nd top rated, and one race was unsuccessful.

Red Jazz looked to have a race on his hands entering the final furlong, but he always had Archers Road's measure and won rather more cosily than it seems to the eye. He's an early Royal Ascot fancy.

Another Royal Ascot fancy, Patkai won as he pleased and the early 10/1 for the Gold Cup disappeared quickly. He is now vying with Yeats for favouritism. Thankfully, Ryan Moore was aware of Darryll Holland's tactics and was in the right place all race long. He only had to hand ride the horse to a comfortable victory.

My Derby outsider fancy, Native Ruler, won well. But he again looked very green and once again kept changing his legs. But when asked for ultimate effort, he showed he is a battler. I think he may be too immature currently for him to be a serious Derby horse. He still looks a big baby. Henry Cecil has performed wonders in the past, but to get this horse fully matured by June is surely asking too much of him, despite his undoubted prowess at vastly improving horses. Maybe he will be a late season horse and a top class 4-Y-O instead of a classic 3-Y-O. If he goes to Lingfield for the Derby trial we may know more. In the meantime, I am still on a watching brief.

I have been asked about trainers in form and how much do I follow them when they are highly rated on the TowerForm handicap.

I think there are a lot of misconceptions about trainers being in or out of form. As I say on the website midway down THIS PAGE "Just because a trainer has had two winners in three days doesn't necessarily mean they are in form. Neither does it mean a trainer is out of form just because they haven't had a winner in a fortnight."

The best way to check if a trainer is in or out of form is simply to look at the fourteen day stats on the Racing Post website

Forget all horses that started at 10/1 or higher because they weren't, in the main, expected to win. Instead, look at the horses a trainer has run that started at 5/1 or less. If those runners constantly get beaten easily or mainly run out of the first three, then you can assume the trainer is out of form. But if those horses run within three or four lengths of the winner, or win, or constantly get placed, then that trainer is in form. He is just temporararily out of luck. If you work to these rules instead of looking for all the 1s in the fourteen day list, then you are on track to be viewing the statistics properly.

Also, to the first point I make about a trainer with two winners in three days. If those two winners were 1/2 and 4/6 and his other fancied horses kept getting beaten six lengths or more, then that trainer is out of form. He just happened on two easy races for his charges.

Never assume a trainer's form. Always check the stats in a professional way. Don't glance. Study.

Thursday looks a competitive day. Rising Kheleyf (3-40 Redcar) looks a sporting bet to follow up his Catterick win. He beat two in-form rivals fairly cosily and should maintain the improvement he showed there. Alicante looks a typical Prescott second season handicapper and as such needs to be carefully noted. But she is probably going to be better over a couple of furlongs and more further. Also, being by Pivotal, I have to suspect that the ground will be a little too quick for her. I further suspect that she was entered at Redcar in the hope that the recent rain had eased the ground. Unfortunately, it hasn't as the overnight forecast is Firm. I wouldn't be surprised if she was withdrawn. Anyway, I reckon hat-trick seeking Cornish Castle will be a bigger danger.

Just a small note: the Spotlight writer for this race on the Racing Post website says Alicante is a half sister to the classy Prescott stayers Albanova and Alborada. She isn't. She's out of a different mare entirely. Maybe he meant to say "from the same family as..."

Have a good day.