National Blade

Sandwith just failed to get up and lost by a decreasing margin. I suppose the Place bettors will be happier than me.

The (4) graded races picked up a little, Friday. There were ten such races and seven were successful (four won by the clear top rated and three by the 2nd top rated, one of which was joint).

According to the overall record, it is unlikely that the winner of the Grand National will start at over 20/1. But many huge prices do get placed. On the border of that is one of my two each way fancies.

Kilbeggan Blade is a 20/1 chance that I like. He's been hiding from the bigger obstacles most of the season, his trainer opting for a mainly hurdle preparation for the National. He's done well in that sphere, winning twice and being a disappointing 2nd to an ordinary novice. But I suspect he was only half-cooked when he met defeat. The only time he has run over chases this season was at Sandown in December. He took it up at the last and fought off a host of strong stayers to win by three quarters of a length. A big National fancy, Rambling Minster, was four and a half lengths behind him that day and meets Kilbeggan today on three pounds worse terms - though it has to be admitted that collateral form can be misleading when considering Aintree horses. But he does prefer tracks which don't have too many undulations but have stiff fences. So his jumping shouldn't be a problem and the ground won't bother him because he has run well on it before. If he gets that bit of luck needed to get round Aintree, he has an excellent chance of placing in the first four.

My other each way fancy is Black Apalachi. There's been a lot of talk about his chances fading as each dry day passes. His race history shows his best races have been run with give in the ground and he has never won on anything better than soft. But the light rain forecast for tonight and tomorrow should take the sting out of the turf by racetime. On form and ability he has a very good chance to win. He produced a superb jumping performance when he won the Bechers Chase in November by a very large distance. The going was very different that day (heavy) but at least he has the advantage of proving he can jump the National fences - which was originally doubtful when he fell at the second fence last year. Regardless of ground conditions, I think he will be a good bet to get placed.

Whatever the fate of my fancies, all I really want is for every horse to return to their stable safe and sound.

Have a good Saturday