Money If You Want

The (4) and (5) graded races were successful five times out of eight, Wednesday, though a dyslexic donkey could have predicted two of them. Four were won by the clear top rated and one by the clear 2nd top rated. Three were unsuccessful.

I went with 2nd top rated Hatton Flight in the Great Met for these reasons:

1. Dream Desert was no value at 4/1 in a race so competitive .
2. Aureate has only one Southwell win to his name in the last two years, added to which he is best held up. In a race that promised to have only an average pace, it would have been folly for me to consider a hold up horse ridden by Ryan Moore in those circumstances.
3. Hatton Flight has a 33% winning record on turf and was raised only a couple of pounds for beating a consistent horse last time out. The final decision was clear when I saw that William Buick has won five times from seven on the horse. In the end, it was a no brainer.

I suggested that a close eye on the live market could pay dividends in the two handicaps. And so it proved in the City and Suburban. The winner, Duncan, was the best backed horse in the live market. Unfortunately, I went with Hawaass who folded quite tamely when headed at the distance, eventually finishing a poor 12th.

One horse that is showing the type of quiet progression I like was African Cheetah in the 4-30 maiden. Making good headway up the straight to finish a respectable 3rd to two good horses, he looked all over a debut handicap winner. He's now qualified for handicaps and a mark somewhere in the mid to late 70s is one he can win off. He's bred to be a miler but it looks as though he could stay ten furlongs. I eagerly await his handicap debut.

Thursday is a very ordinary day on the flat and tricky fast ground fare over the sticks. Will If I Want (4-20 Fontwell) isn't a typical Timmy Murphy mount insomuch as he looks to be a good front runner. But he has posted two good runs on this ground since arriving from Ireland for the princely sum of 800 guineas. The increased distances he has run the last twice seems to have brought about a lot of improvement and in a race that is little better than a seller, he ought to be able to beat some extraordinarily ordinary sorts.

Money Trix has promised to become a top class chaser but injury has blighted his career. He's only been out of the first two once (fell) in nine starts against very good hurdlers and chasers and is fairly unexposed for his age. Although he needs to brush up his jumping (ignore the going concerns, many of his sires offspring have won on fast ground), he meets a field of exposed handicappers here and looks to have a good chance to show an inkling of his true worth. Possol is the biggest danger, having progressed to become fairly useful himself. He also goes very well on fast ground. Ollie Magern is not as good as he was but has a useful allowance in a race he would have won pulling a bus two or three years ago. I fully expect to see this trio finish one-two-three in the race.

Have a good day.