Go Native

To make things clear (and I thought things were) the adverts you see in the right column are placed there by Google. True, I had to sign up to the ads to get them placed there, but they are simply a "space filler" and I do not in any way endorse them. Please investigate fully any advertisement you see. Never sign up for anything (including TowerForm) unless you are completely confident that what is presented has been fully proven to you. If the vendors don't provide clear proof at your asking, then don't sign up. Lists of past wins mean absolutely nothing - they are susceptible to manipulation. Ask to see the results in action, day by day. If they don't offer you that facility, then move on and find someone who does.

There were six (4) and (5) graded races, Tuesday. Two were won by the clear top rated, two by the 2nd top rated (one of them joint) and two were unsuccessful. (You can either subscribe to 4-5 Dutch HERE or you can monitor the results in action for seven days by registering HERE .)

It would seem that Sana Abel hasn't shown too much at home if the betting was anything to go by. Opening at 9/2 and drifting to 8/1, the negative vibes seemed to be right as she came under pressure pretty early in the race. But she responded well and finished like a future winner, being beaten just about a length. There were some nice words about some of her rivals pre-race with hints of progression up the racing levels. But the proximity of the third, Lonely Star, reduces the form level to Class 2 or 3 handicapping. The next runs will provide more answers. Yet, though Sana Abel was slightly disappointing, she did show promise. It is well known that some horses who show little at home, thrive once they have had racecourse experience. Maybe Sana Abel is such a horse. Her breeding would suggest so since some of her high class siblings (such as Itnab, Haafiz, Shumookh) were beaten in similar class maidens before progressing to win good races. So all is not yet lost. Her next run will tell much more about her latent ability.

At face value the result of the 3-50 almost had me eating my words, but in reality Aakef beat Bouvardia very cosily. To let you know now, I will be backing Bouvardia with confidence next time he runs in a 6f race. Captain Carey was held up as usual but couldn't muster the pace of the leaders and was well beaten at the line. It isn't exactly that he was found out by the rise in class but he had to contend with two top class horses at the front end of the result. With lesser horses than the first two in contention for his next Class 3 handicap, he should continue to progress.

The "real" Flat season for horses begins tomorrow with Newmarket's Craven meeting - though in my experience the "real" Flat season for punters doesn't start until York's Dante meeting in May. It's a tasty card with classic hopefuls, high class maidens, the best 2-Y-O race of the season so far, and promising high class handicappers on show. It will be a very informative day.

The opening maiden sees the debuts of some intrestingly bred horses. Native Ruler (1-50) son of an Oaks winner and a Group 1 winner and half brother to a St Leger winner, has been high on the list of likely Newmarket victors for a few weeks after sparkling on the gallops. He's even been mentioned as a potential Derby winner. While I would accept he could win well, Wednesday, I can't help feeling that Henry Cecil has a much more likely candidate for the Derby in Father Time who has also been impressing in his morning work. As I said yesterday, it is not usually recommended that you second guess Henry Cecil, but Native Ruler has to be in the class of Lammtarra to achieve a Derby win. Lammtarra won a Listed race at Newbury on his debut as a 2-Y-O and was not really considered for his Derby seasonal debut win (14/1). Though it has to be said that the 2, 3 and 4-Y-O generation of 1994/5 can never be regarded as the best in history. It also has to be said that if anyone can get the horse to win a Derby, it is surely Henry Cecil - one of my all time favourite trainers.

Fantasia puts her Guineas prospects on the line in the Nell Gwyn (4-10). Though I think she should win, there are a couple or three highly promising fillies in the race. Summer Fete is one. She progressed well last season ending up winning a Newbury Listed race. If she has wintered well, she could have improved enough to bridge the gap between her and Fantasia (on a collateral form line through Seradim). However far she has progressed since last season, she could be the one for the forecast.

Have a Good Wednesday.