Cut to a Winner

The (4) and (5) graded races were as unspectacular as the racing on offer, Easter Monday. There were twelve such races in all. Eight were won by the top two rated (three clear top rated and five 2nd top rated - three by the joint 2nd top). Four were unsuccessful. (Click HERE to either subscribe or register to monitor them for seven days.)

The ratings held up fairly well giving 50% top two winners (incl joints) providing fifteen clear top rated - a lower figure than envisaged pre-racing.

There are a few interesting races at Yarmouth, Tuesday, not least the 2-30 which marks the debut of Sana Abel. There are some average looking horses in the field, so it will be disappointing if this Oaks entered, half sister to Oaks winner Eswarah doesn't make a winning debut.

Another race which should have a bearing on some top class 3-Y-O handicaps this season is the 3-50 sprint. Aakef was expected to do much better last season but didn't quite do it. Michael Jarvis said he was "a bit of a lad" last season - he ran poorly in the Windsor Castle after getting a bit sweaty at the sight of a couple of choice fillies. So the fact he was gelded over the close season is no surprise. Maybe it will be the making of him. But there are two very promising types in opposition: Bouvardia for my favourite trainer Henry Cecil who is a half brother to the useful Camacho; and Captain Carey who has been progressing well this spring. While Bouvardia will win his share this season, I think this race will be a furlong shorter than he would want - though to second guess Henry Cecil is not usually recommended. Captain Carey is becoming a good horse and is at the top of his form. But I can't help feeling the rise in class will find him out.

Have a good Tuesday.