Sunday, 22 March 2009

I'm not so think as you drunk I am.........

Well, connections took one look at yesterday's blog and withdrew Haajes. Didn't know they were Catholic...............

Hopefully, Haajes is okay. The reason for withdrawal was lameness. Possibly a subliminal comment on Sunday's posting. Ah, well.

Monday looks no better than Sunday at first glance but a closer look seems to throw up a few good bets. Yet I can't help remembering the paraphrase "Just when you thought it was safe to go in the bookies...."

Days that promise so much profit usually end up providing the bookie with his next Caribbean holiday. Though if dutch betting is your game you should be in seventh heaven, or on cloud nine, or in the pub drinking heavily and philosophising about the vagaries of fortune. Such is Monday.

I'll not list all the single bet opportunities (and you need to subscribe to discover the best dutching bets. HERE if you're interested in a Spring Discount of our handicaps) so I'll just go through a couple of the non-odds on fancies I have.

Obe Royal (2-20 Wolverhampton) is a good starting point. He's been in the form of his life this winter and would be well clear in the ratings were it not for the hard to evaluate Western Art. The latter is rated well above today's field and on past form would make this race a procession. But the fact the he was bought very cheaply by the Easterby's tells a story, as does the fact that a horse of his past talent is put in a claimer. Something has obviously gone amiss with the horse since he last ran poorly over 300 days ago. Past experience of such horses points to the fact he is in this claimer simply as a "finding out" exercise. Such horses are generally put in at a claiming price of £10 000. And guess what? So I am as confident as I can be that the Easterby's will base the horse's future entries on his performance here. If you are not convinced of this I would at the least recommend you have a Dutch bet.

Another one runs in a race type I rarely entertain but he could get placed at a decent each way price: Compton Star (4-15 Plumpton). His form will horrify the weaker hearted of you but he goes into the race with a realistic chance. His last three runs have been in a hurdle race last time (tailed off) and two chases (pulled up both times). Not the sort of form that gives him an obvious chance - especially since he has won only three times in a forty-nine race career. But the distance, the class and the fresh good ground are ideal. He had a break before running last time and quite simply "blew up" three out on ground he doesn't particularly go well on.

Make no mistake, this field contains some of the slowest, most moderate horses plying their trade. None are trustworthy and few, if any, have the scope or ability to improve. Only Royal Prodigy has shown the level of form in the past equivalent to what Compton Star has shown.

So there it is. Whatever the results enjoy the racing the best you can. It does get better soon. And if you're wondering where I'll be tomorrow after racing, well, if the worst happens, see you in the pub.

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