Welcome to TowerForm's first blog

Many people have emailed us about our comments on jockeys (you can read some of our views halfway down THIS PAGE ). It is a fact of horse racing that a jockey will sometimes let you down by riding a very ill judged race. It would be churlish of me to give examples - and anyway, many would probably question my authority to pass judgement on a professional jockey.

True, I have never ridden a horse in competition. But I have watched thousands of races over the years and am thus qualified to make judgements based on what I see - just as a football fan can pass judgement when a striker misses a sitter....

One jockey recently excused losing on a very long odds on shot by saying "the pace didn't suit him." Forgive me, but I have to say that good jockeys ride to win the race first then worry if anything is going to catch them in the closing stages, making pace a non issue. Unfortunately, far too many jockeys adore looking good i.e. they like to pose. They love to be seen sitting motionless, waiting to pounce. Inevitably, many such jockeys look absolutely stupid in the closing stages when the "steering job" fails to pick up with any authority - never mind speed.

But to Sunday's racing.

Another Sunday offering moderate horses in low grade racing. We never completely trust Class 5 or 6 horses to run to form. Many obviously will run to form today, though almost all won't. They equally obviously run in these races because they are decidedly moderate; which brings me to Haajes in Southwell's 2-30 selling race.

He is a fair horse that has been runing with credit against the best All Weather handicap sprinters this winter. Though the handicapper has him firmly in his grip he has run to a mark within five pounds of his official mark. In handicapping terms that is the form of a very consistent performer.

So why run him in a seller? I can only assume that his owner (Willie McKay) is beginning a clear out. Having said that, it is a seller run on an artificial surface, a surface that can throw up many wierd and bewildering results. I have him thirteen pounds better in with his nearest rival (Grimes Faith) which very roughly equates to about four lengths. There are downsides to his form, however.

He has run seven times on the All Weather being in the frame only twice (both this year including a win); he has never won in the months from March to July (seven runs and only one place); and his trainer (S Parr) has a meagre 5% win record at the course.

Compare that to Grimes Faith. He has run twelve times at Southwell, winning five and being placed 2nd and third on five other occasions; his jockey has never been out of the frame when riding him; and the horse has only been out of the first three twice this All Weather season - one of those times times he would have been placed but for an unlucky run.

So if Grimes Faith improves again and runs a couple of pounds better than his mark and Haajes runs a couple of lengths below form (feasible since he has only run to form once at Southwell) then Grimes Faith can win. Or can he?

I hope this post highlights how difficult it can get laying a favourite. All the history counts against Haajes. Yet he is so far clear on figures he should win regardless. But Conflictofinterest had so many positives the other day that it couldn't get beat - but it did.

How many people would have bet against Conflictofinterest? Layers, of course will tell us that every horse has a price that begs laying. But I strongly suspect people layed Conflictofinterest more in outlandish hope than in conviction, knowing that if they were wrong, they wouldn't lose a great deal.

I never lay horses, I bet them to win - with the bookies. Though I won't be betting on Haajes. He will either be too short or he will drift alarmingly. And I am not going to second guess that.